1、 Price trend

In December 2019, the butadiene market was weak and declined. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 8834 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 8312 yuan / ton, down 5.91% in the month, 15.50% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in December, the domestic butadiene market was weak. At the beginning of the month, affected by the sudden accident of TPC device in the United States, the suspension of export of northeast manufacturers, the short-term shutdown of Shenhua Ningmei and Nanjing Chengzhi device, the market experienced short-term speculation, but the downstream follow-up was limited. With the restart of export in the first ten days of December, the market continues to decline. In the last ten days of the month, the price of northeast goods is relatively low, which just needs to be followed up in succession to boost the downstream part, and the market situation shows some signs of stabilizing. However, at the end of the month, the new equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical was successfully put into trial operation, and the supply side was expected to be short, so the market continued to be weak.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China continued to decrease by 400 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton; due to the increase of pipeline transportation, North Huajin butadiene was suspended for export in the second half of the month, with the base price of node bidding at 8310 yuan / ton as of the 16th day, down 600 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; Fushun Petrochemical’s base price of bidding at 7800 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton on a month on month basis basis; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s listing price at 7600 yuan / ton as of the 30th day, on a month on month basis The price of coal butadiene in Shenhua Ningxia fell by 610 yuan / ton to 7140 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, and the 100000 ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Jiangsu Province was shut down for a short period from 16th to 26th. Nanjing Chengzhi butadiene plant was shut down for minor inspection from November 27 to December 3, and shut down from December 22 to 27; Puyang Bluestar 50000t / a butadiene plant was shut down from December 27 to 31, with a small amount of inventory for export; Zhejiang Petrochemical added 200000t / a butadiene plant to produce qualified butadiene products on December 30, and the formal operation of the plant in the later stage needs further attention.

Industrial chain: SBR: domestic SBR market rose first and then fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw material butadiene was adjusted at a high level, and the supply price also increased by a large margin. The cost side and the news side obviously boosted the confidence of the operators. Moreover, the volume of orders issued by the sales companies was still tight, the on-the-spot circulation was limited, the speculation atmosphere was gradually rising, the operators were reluctant to sell, and the market premium margin was constantly enlarged. However, the requirements for environmental protection in the north are still severe, and the start-up of some terminal plants is still not optimistic, and the annual close is near. Downstream enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the overall demand is weak. In addition, the following butadiene market is weak, both Tianjiao futures and spot stocks are falling, and the cost side and news side are turning to the guidance of the short side. Therefore, after the middle of the month, the styrene butadiene market is declining in a narrow range, and the market offer is gradually posted In the near ex factory price and falling price market, there is no lack of some profit taking companies to ship with the trend, and the overall trading is still in a stalemate; there are not many stocks at the end of the month, and the market price is stable near the supply price, and the demand has not changed significantly.

In December, the domestic br market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the supply price of Shunding has been pushed up one after another, and the short-term shutdown and maintenance of Maoming and Yanshan Shunding units have been carried out. In addition, the price of butadiene and benzene has been rising all the way after the restriction of butadiene and benzene, so Shunding market has increased the price one after another, and the range of price increase has been slightly enlarged. After entering the middle of the month, the price of raw materials gradually decreased, Shanghai Rubber shockwave finishing support was general, the domestic mainstream Shunding unit started to return to normal, the demand did not change, Shunding market price gradually weakened, and the early premium range also gradually narrowed. In the last ten days of the month, the start-up of tires was not as expected, and under the environmental protection situation, some other downstream factories showed signs of parking, etc., “do not buy down” mentality guidance, the demand side became weaker; the domestic butadiene price also fell step by step; after the bad news intensified, the price of Shunding became weaker, and continued to show signs of hanging upside down, and the low profit plate significantly dragged down the trading; the factory supply price of Shunding was in a favorable trend Lower, the market also fell after finishing mainly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in December 2019, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there were 8 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities were propane (27.23%), crude benzene (11.66%) and pure benzene (10.94%). There are a total of 50 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, and 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the top 3 falls are sulfur (-17.03%), lithium hydroxide (-13.50%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.64%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.87%.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, good news: the downstream synthetic rubber construction is OK, and the latex industry just needs to replenish before the Spring Festival holiday. On the negative side, there are plenty of imported ships arriving at the port, sufficient supply in the spot market, smooth commissioning of new production capacity, release of production in the later period, and the intention of northern export manufacturers to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the northern manufacturers have a relatively abundant supply of goods for export, and it is difficult to form an effective support for the downstream rigid demand. In addition, the domestic butadiene market is still under pressure due to the arrival of foreign ships. At the end of this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was successfully commissioned, and it was reported that Dalian Hengli plant also had a commissioning plan in January. The supply of butadiene in the medium and long term will increase significantly, which will affect the expectation of some businesses. In January, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the intention of replenishment of downstream positions before the festival and the supplier’s “light inventory” exist at the same time. Under the pressure of supply, the butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to explore the possibility of a slight decline in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the market supply and demand and the internal and external market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of diammonium phosphate on December 23 was 2250 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of diammonium phosphate on December 31 was 2200 yuan / ton, down 2.22%. On December 31, DAP commodity index was 65.62, which was flat compared with yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 36.28% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the demand for DAP is weak, the trend of DAP is declining, the market is light, and the manufacturers continue to wait and see. Maintenance of some enterprise devices. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market continued to maintain stable consolidation, weak operation, and the supply of goods was basically normal. At present, the price of phosphate rock in Guizhou has remained stable as a whole, and the price of low-grade phosphate rock of some manufacturers has slightly decreased by 30-50 yuan / ton. This week, the trend of domestic sulfur price was reduced by a narrow range, and the quotation of sulfur for individual refineries was temporarily stable according to their own shipment. On the port side, the inventory is still high, with small factories and traders occasionally entering the market for enquiries and relatively limited transactions. In the past week, refineries around the country continued to maintain low inventory operation, because environmental protection and production restriction problems still exist, downstream plants still maintained low level of operation, and major production enterprises priced down to ease the inventory sales pressure. At present, the market of liquid ammonia has maintained a narrow adjustment. The enterprises mainly sell products at guaranteed prices, and some of them give way to profits. Most of the units are converted to urea production, and the output of liquid ammonia is controlled to decline, so as to balance the overstock of the manufacturers’ inventory.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively trichloromethane (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of DAP of business association think that the market of DAP is weak in supply and demand, weak in export market and weak in market trading, which leads to the continuous downturn of prices. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will not change in the later period, and it is still weak. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamic situation of raw materials and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In 2019, the price fluctuation is not big and the market will not rise or fall.

2、 Market analysis

Industrial chain:

From the perspective of raw materials, starting from the middle of October, the coal tar market showed a downward trend, and the price reached a low point within the year. There was a slight increase at the end of November, but not a big increase. As of the end of November, the price is still lower than the end of last month. In the later stage, although the coal tar market is in short supply at this stage, it is expected that the price increase of coal tar in December will be limited and the market price of carbon black will not be adequately supported due to the difficulty of changing the weak situation of the downstream carbon black and coal asphalt.

In terms of demand, the main downstream operating rate is lower than the same period last year. In November, the operating rate of all steel tire and semi steel tire industry was higher than that in October. However, compared with the same period last year, the operating rate of half steel tire enterprises was slightly lower in 11 this year; the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 5.54% lower than the same period last year, with a large drop. On the whole, the downstream demand in November this year is lower than that in November last year. It is expected that the starting of tires in December will be stable, while the demand for carbon black is still weak.

listed company:

In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit of domestic carbon black listed companies all showed a significant negative growth. Black cat’s operating net profit fell by 128.84%, the only one of the four listed companies with negative net profit. Among the listed enterprises, Jinneng technology still has the highest operating revenue and the smallest decline in net profit. Its operating revenue is 6.208 billion yuan, down 2.24% year-on-year; its net profit is 593 million yuan, down 35.94% year-on-year. Shanxi Yongdong is the only private enterprise with a positive growth in its business income, which is 2.133 billion yuan, up 13.42% year on year.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the profits of domestic carbon black enterprises plummeted or even lost money, which was mainly affected by the low delivery price of domestic carbon black, while the low price of carbon black was mainly affected by overcapacity, homogenization and vicious competition, high-temperature coal tar price relative to carbon black price, insufficient consumption power in the automobile industry, low tire market demand, passive bargaining power and poor unity, and low international crude oil price Shock and other factors.

3、 Future forecast

Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the price of dry process aluminum fluoride in China fell slightly in December. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 9166 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the month was 9033 yuan / ton, down 1.45%.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the price of aluminum fluoride fell, and some aluminum fluoride manufacturers lowered the factory price: at present, the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton, the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in December, the market price of domestic hydrofluoric acid keeps rising, and up to now, the market price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 10240 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the market has improved. Because the downstream demand is not small, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is stable, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. In the first half of December, the price of aluminum fluoride continued to decline in November, and in the middle of December, the price of aluminum fluoride manufacturers rose and fell with each other.

3、 Future forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, the upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid price keeps rising this month, but the upward pressure is relatively large at present, while the aluminum fluoride market price is basically stable, and it is expected that the aluminum fluoride price will keep stable in January.

In 2019, hydrogen peroxide experienced two big ups and downs. After the big price rise and ushered in a big fall. Overall, compared with the big fall in 2018, the price of hydrogen peroxide in 2019 is still rising at a high level. It is still a certain distance from the high price of 2000 yuan at the end of 2017 and 1600 yuan at the beginning of 2018. In 2019, the highest price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1300 yuan / ton, with a maximum increase of nearly 40%. Two rounds of declines dragged down the increase, and the overall increase of hydrogen peroxide in the whole year exceeded 20%.

In 2019, the trend of hydrogen peroxide market presents M-type trend, with two rounds of roller coaster market. It can be roughly divided into two stages, the two stages are basically similar, both of which show a sharp rise followed by a sharp fall. The first stage: from January to July, the price of the first round of roller coaster rose first and then fell, with an overall increase of 1.94%. The second stage: from August to December, in the second round of roller coaster, the price rose first and then fell. The overall increase was higher than that in the first round, up 16.79%.

The first stage: from January to July, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 860 yuan / ton on January 1, and 876 yuan / ton on July 31, with a price increase of 1.94%.

In January, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was poor, and the price dropped sharply. The main quotation was 750-850 yuan / ton, and the price dropped 100 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide started to rise, mainly due to the environmental warning, the manufacturer shut down, the supply decreased, and the terminal demand improved in March and April. The manufacturers raised their prices one after another. The price of hydrogen peroxide continued to rise to 1200 yuan / ton in the middle of April, and the price per ton rose nearly 500 yuan, or nearly 50%.

After the first round of sharp rise, the prices fell one after another. Part of the manufacturers shut down for maintenance, and hydrogen peroxide restarted the rising market, which continued to run at a high level. At the end of May, the high platform diving market was started, which fell to July. The price fell back to 1000 yuan / ton, down 20%. In July, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced ups and downs. In July, when the demand was low, the price rose to 1000 yuan, but the terminal market continued to be low. Near the end of the month, the soaring market was hit back to its original shape, fell sharply, to 800 yuan overnight, and fell by 11% in a single day, down 9% from the beginning of the month.

The second stage: from August to December, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 893 yuan / ton on August 1, and 1043 yuan / ton on December 26, with a price increase of 16.79%.

In August, the supply of hydrogen peroxide was tight, and the market rose all the way. A set of hydrogen peroxide device was shut down in Luxi, Shandong Province. In the middle of the year, there was a typhoon and rainstorm in Shandong Province. Some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers began to reduce production and even stop for maintenance. The supply declined, and the manufacturers increased the price of hydrogen peroxide one after another. The price rose 22.7% in August. In September, hydrogen peroxide started to decline, with the price dropping 6.4%.

In October, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance one after another, and the manufacturers in Tianjin, Shanxi, Shandong and other places carried out parking maintenance one after another. Hydrogen peroxide ended the depressed market in September, rebounded to the bottom, ushered in a sustained surge in the market, singing all the way from the end of the holiday to October 22, the price soared more than 30%. From October 23, hydrogen peroxide dived into the water again, falling all the way to December 26. The overall price of hydrogen peroxide fell from 1500 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 30%. As much as it rose, so much as it fell.

In 2019, the sharp rise and fall of hydrogen peroxide are mainly affected by supply and demand. In terms of supply, the annual new capacity of hydrogen peroxide is as follows:

 
downstream

Caprolactam: in the first half of 2019, the caprolactam market was basically consistent with the hydrogen peroxide Market, rising first and then falling, with an overall decline of 6.98%. They all started to rise in February, and continued to rise in March and April. In early May, they reached an annual high of 13950 yuan / ton, up 10.28% from January 1. Then it fell rapidly, falling nearly 16% as of June 30. In the second half of the year, the market trend of caprolactam and hydrogen peroxide was similar, but the increase did not reach the height of hydrogen peroxide, with an overall decline of 8.12%. It is also a rising trend in the third quarter and a sharp decline in the fourth quarter. The only difference is that caprolactam rose in December, while hydrogen peroxide still fell.

Papermaking industry: in the first quarter of 2019, driven by the peak demand season, the price of corrugated base paper reached the highest point in the whole year, and then continued to fall in the second and third quarters, forming the lowest point of corrugated base paper price in the whole year, which was mainly affected by the single factor of high cost and weak demand support. Although after the “golden nine silver ten” market atmosphere, the price showed all the way up, as of the end of the year, the price of corrugated base paper was still not higher than the price level at the beginning of the year. In 2019, the paper industry performed generally, with limited support for hydrogen peroxide Market. When the price of hydrogen peroxide rose sharply, the paper industry is still in a cold winter.

Outlook for the future

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business club, there is less difference between the new capacity and the removal capacity of hydrogen peroxide in 2019. From the perspective of supply, hydrogen peroxide still has room to rise. In 2020, the hydrogen peroxide market will still change with seasonal demand, and it is still expected to rise sharply. This year’s terminal paper industry performance is average. In 2020, the hydrogen peroxide market may continue to rise, but it is hard to reach the height of rise in 2019.