1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of April 3, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9440 yuan / ton, with a 2.48% month on month drop in price and a 4.53% year-on-year increase.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic BDO market weakness consolidation this week. Crude oil continued to hover at a low level, the global epidemic spread, the terminal demand was limited, and the market downturn transmitted upward, resulting in high inventory in the main downstream of BDO, low starting load, and weak digestion of raw materials. Especially in PBT industry, many factories choose to park or operate with very low load, and many factories need to enter the market to depress prices. In the early stage, the main factories such as Dongyuan and Kaixiang didn’t restart the parking maintenance. Under the guidance of the pricing policy this week, Heci and Shaanxi chemical park maintenance, the overall market load is less than 40%, but the high inventory digestion is slow, and low price import goods hit the market. The game between supply and demand continues, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, and the sales promotion is carried out within a reasonable range.

In terms of devices, this week, hecian will stop for maintenance on March 27; Shaanxi chemical will stop for maintenance on March 27, and it is expected to restart this weekend; Kaixiang will stop for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; MEC’s load is 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device will operate normally, The restart time of other units is to be determined; Dongyuan shut down for maintenance on March 5, and the restart time is not determined; Tunhe phase I is 50%, and phase II is shut down; Ronghe shut down for maintenance; Xinye shut down for catalyst replacement on the evening of March 25; Sinopec load drops to about 50%. The overall market operating rate this week was around 38.9%, down 6.9% from last week. (the domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking).

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the mainstream of this week’s methanol market tends to be stable, some of which are up, and the market negotiation atmosphere is active. The centralized transaction price in Inner Mongolia is 1350-1380 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange. The main factories such as Xinao and Rongxin were closed at the beginning of the week, mainly supplying olefins. The main factories of the south line, Shilin and jinchengtai, were temporarily overhauled, and there was not much available for sale this week. This week, the centralized transaction in Guanzhong region was maintained at 1400-1480 yuan / ton of ex factory cash, Xianyang chemical was shut down for a long time, a single 400000 ton / year methanol plant in Weihua, Shaanxi was shut down for maintenance, and the factory shipment was relatively smooth under the support of low supply and favorable conditions. Baoji’s five quotations rose to 1530-154 yuan / ton in the evergreen week, and the new price shipment was to be observed. At present, it seems that the enthusiasm of the downstream market has increased, and the olefin plants such as China Coal Yulin have the intention to produce methanol outside, and the production enterprises are also in a rising mentality.

Calcium carbide: this week, the overall trend of calcium carbide market is downward. The factory price is down by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream factory price in Wuhai is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. At present, the construction in Northwest China is stable, but some enterprises have problems in stock accumulation, and the trade source and investment environment is light. On the downstream side, the operation rate of domestic calcium carbide PVC fell this week, and some enterprises entered the maintenance stage ahead of time, resulting in the weakening demand for calcium carbide in the market. The downstream waiting trucks began to rise, and the purchase price fell by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the purchase price in Shandong is 2890-3090 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

This week, the overall market will be started to about 40% for parking maintenance of Hemei and short-term parking maintenance of Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd., and the strategy of supporting the market will be continued. However, the terminal demand has not improved in the macro environment, and continues to languish. The load of downstream industry is low. It just needs to enter the market to make up the position, and the price is depressed under the cost pressure. At present, the social inventory is high, but the demand is weak, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, and a reasonable range of narrow margin sales promotion. Short term terminal downstream demand is hard to be optimistic. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will continue to be weak and volatile, specifically focusing on the main downstream construction situation and market mentality change.

1、 Price trend

In March, the domestic methanol market continued to decline. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the month is 2022 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the month is 1607 yuan / ton, down 20.52% in the month, 32.40% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: affected by the emergency safety events, the downstream demand of domestic methanol spot market recovers slowly, especially the traditional downstream market; however, after the impact of the development of foreign epidemic situation in the middle of March, the continuous drop of foreign financial market triggers the fuse, the international crude oil price drops to $20.8/barrel, the external environment pressure, the methanol drop is wide, and the new low of the year has been refreshed in many places, and some regional production enterprises have touched on it Production line or loss.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this month, the domestic formaldehyde market fell in a wide range. In the context of global public health events, the overall start-up of domestic formaldehyde enterprises at the beginning of the month was depressed. With the introduction of domestic policies to support enterprises to resume work and resume road transportation, most enterprises began to resume production in the middle of the month. Although the domestic public health events improved this month, affected by the external environment, the U.S. stocks repeatedly broke, international crude oil plummeted, and the domestic upstream methanol level continued to decline. In this context, the cost side is not enough. The export of some plate enterprises in the lower reaches is affected by the overseas epidemic, the orders are blocked, the enterprises have sufficient inventory and Limited procurement. Formaldehyde enterprises are under pressure from the demand side, and the overall transaction is flat.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline in March. At the beginning of the month, some acetic acid production enterprises considered the annual production requirements, costs and other situations, and increased the starting load of the unit, resulting in the increase of the spot supply in the market, aggravating the situation that the market supply is greater than the demand. In addition, the northwest, Henan and other spot manufacturers have a large inventory pressure, passive competitive bidding, and driving the market price transaction down.

Dimethyl ether: this month, the market price of dimethyl ether continued to fluctuate downward, and the trading atmosphere was weak. After March, the domestic dimethyl ether industry, except for some enterprises, has basically entered a comprehensive production state. However, due to the continuous price reduction in the later period, some enterprises have reduced their load production. At present, Sichuan Lutianhua, Shandong shengdeyuan and Shandong Yuhuang have not started construction. With the gradual fermentation of the international epidemic, the crude oil market has been greatly impacted. This month, the crude oil price has been fluctuating downward, which has seriously impacted the price of liquefied gas and brought down the volume and price of dimethyl ether trade.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast

Business club’s view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. Port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the shortage of storage capacity. After the gas limit in Iran was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in the next March April. At present, the financial environment and international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact, so it is possible for methanol to continue to explore the bottom. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the methanol market in April is still weak and volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market fell in March, and the spot price decreased significantly. As of April 1, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 6550.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of March.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: on the upstream side, propylene was affected by OPEC meeting and international market game in March, and the news of international crude oil’s multiple downturns was obviously negative for propylene. At present, the propylene operating rate is not high and the inventory is not much, so the early decline is not significant, and the later decline trend is gradually obvious. The downstream isopropanol is one of the raw materials of disinfectant, which has a positive impact on propylene due to the impact of public health events. But other downstream market declines are large. In addition, downstream factories have narrow profit space, and the industry is generally bearish, dragging down the price of propylene, resulting in a volatile decline in March. At the beginning of April, there may be more propylene enterprises to start production and increase production. It is expected that propylene price will continue to explore trend in recent days;

Product: in March, the price of domestic PP market fell in shock, and the waiting atmosphere on the whole was still heavy. Petrochemical enterprises are under pressure to reduce the factory price, and traders are down. The resumption of downstream PP plant is normal, and the operation rate is not ideal. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing inquiry is low, and the demand follow-up is weak. The business confidence is not strong, the message face lacks clear guidance message and the stock gradually builds up, the traders mostly quote according to their own inventory situation. The overall performance of futures is also short, which is obvious with falling sentiment.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of the business club think: there is no doubt that the domestic PP spot market in March was affected by the complex impact of domestic shutdown, and the price fell. The upstream propylene price also fell in shock, and the support for PP cost end was not good. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be further improved. In terms of demand, the order follow-up is not timely, and small orders are mainly concluded. Petrochemical plant inventory pressure, the end of the month to complete the task of profit. PP market is expected to continue to weaken in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3450 yuan / ton, down 8.73% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, and Saudi Arabia and Russia have no sign of resuming production reduction negotiations. Affected by this, the international crude oil price continues to fall sharply this week, as well as the price of toluene in the South Korean market, the main source of toluene import. Although domestic enterprises have entered the resumption period, the market demand is improving slowly, and the domestic toluene price Georgia followed the decline. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3600 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price remained wide and volatile after the sharp fall at the beginning of this week. As of Friday, Brent futures fell 7.21%, Brent futures fell 4.12%, WTI futures fell 0.77% and Dubai futures fell 10.45%.

In the downstream, TDI, at present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is about 10100 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market trend of TDI will be hard to be optimistic next week. Pay close attention to the later information guidance of the factory and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 5000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about $473 / ton for FOB South Korea and $491 / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a downward trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, concern about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. Overall, it is expected that toluene prices in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will continue to fluctuate broadly next week, and toluene prices in the domestic market may follow the shocks next week.

Magnesium market trend

On March 30, 2020, the factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was slightly recalled, and the overall operation was stable. At present, the mainstream quotation range is 13700-14000 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the tracking information of the business agency, the main quotation range of magnesium ingots in fugu (99.9%) is 13700-13800 yuan / ton; that of magnesium ingots in Ningxia (99.9%) is 13750-13850 yuan / ton; that of magnesium ingots in Taiyuan (99.9%) is 13850-14000 yuan / ton; that of magnesium ingots in Wenxi (99.9%) is 13900-14000 yuan / ton.

At present, the market is weak, the actual trading is not much, just need to purchase mainly, the market inquiry is mostly. On the one hand, due to the small number of orders of traders, it is prudent to enter the market for procurement; on the other hand, due to the general decline of bulk commodities, the factory’s willingness to store goods is moving down, and small-scale procurement is the main thing.

Expected market outlook

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingot is back to normal. It is expected that it will run stably in the near future, and pay attention to the change of downstream purchase rhythm in the later stage.