1、 Price trend
According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of April 3, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9440 yuan / ton, with a 2.48% month on month drop in price and a 4.53% year-on-year increase.
2、 Market analysis
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Product: domestic BDO market weakness consolidation this week. Crude oil continued to hover at a low level, the global epidemic spread, the terminal demand was limited, and the market downturn transmitted upward, resulting in high inventory in the main downstream of BDO, low starting load, and weak digestion of raw materials. Especially in PBT industry, many factories choose to park or operate with very low load, and many factories need to enter the market to depress prices. In the early stage, the main factories such as Dongyuan and Kaixiang didn’t restart the parking maintenance. Under the guidance of the pricing policy this week, Heci and Shaanxi chemical park maintenance, the overall market load is less than 40%, but the high inventory digestion is slow, and low price import goods hit the market. The game between supply and demand continues, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, and the sales promotion is carried out within a reasonable range.
In terms of devices, this week, hecian will stop for maintenance on March 27; Shaanxi chemical will stop for maintenance on March 27, and it is expected to restart this weekend; Kaixiang will stop for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; MEC’s load is 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device will operate normally, The restart time of other units is to be determined; Dongyuan shut down for maintenance on March 5, and the restart time is not determined; Tunhe phase I is 50%, and phase II is shut down; Ronghe shut down for maintenance; Xinye shut down for catalyst replacement on the evening of March 25; Sinopec load drops to about 50%. The overall market operating rate this week was around 38.9%, down 6.9% from last week. (the domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking).
Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the mainstream of this week’s methanol market tends to be stable, some of which are up, and the market negotiation atmosphere is active. The centralized transaction price in Inner Mongolia is 1350-1380 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange. The main factories such as Xinao and Rongxin were closed at the beginning of the week, mainly supplying olefins. The main factories of the south line, Shilin and jinchengtai, were temporarily overhauled, and there was not much available for sale this week. This week, the centralized transaction in Guanzhong region was maintained at 1400-1480 yuan / ton of ex factory cash, Xianyang chemical was shut down for a long time, a single 400000 ton / year methanol plant in Weihua, Shaanxi was shut down for maintenance, and the factory shipment was relatively smooth under the support of low supply and favorable conditions. Baoji’s five quotations rose to 1530-154 yuan / ton in the evergreen week, and the new price shipment was to be observed. At present, it seems that the enthusiasm of the downstream market has increased, and the olefin plants such as China Coal Yulin have the intention to produce methanol outside, and the production enterprises are also in a rising mentality.
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Calcium carbide: this week, the overall trend of calcium carbide market is downward. The factory price is down by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream factory price in Wuhai is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. At present, the construction in Northwest China is stable, but some enterprises have problems in stock accumulation, and the trade source and investment environment is light. On the downstream side, the operation rate of domestic calcium carbide PVC fell this week, and some enterprises entered the maintenance stage ahead of time, resulting in the weakening demand for calcium carbide in the market. The downstream waiting trucks began to rise, and the purchase price fell by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the purchase price in Shandong is 2890-3090 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
This week, the overall market will be started to about 40% for parking maintenance of Hemei and short-term parking maintenance of Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd., and the strategy of supporting the market will be continued. However, the terminal demand has not improved in the macro environment, and continues to languish. The load of downstream industry is low. It just needs to enter the market to make up the position, and the price is depressed under the cost pressure. At present, the social inventory is high, but the demand is weak, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, and a reasonable range of narrow margin sales promotion. Short term terminal downstream demand is hard to be optimistic. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will continue to be weak and volatile, specifically focusing on the main downstream construction situation and market mentality change.
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