1、 Price trend
This week’s domestic ethanol market was weak. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5262 yuan / ton, while the weekend domestic ethanol market price was 5212 yuan / ton, down 0.95% in the week. The price fell 4.18% month on month and 2.75% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
2、 Market analysis
Product: the domestic alcohol market rose slightly in some regions this week, and most markets maintained weak consolidation. The market in Henan Province is up, the inventory of enterprises is not high, the quotation is rising continuously, and the downstream purchasing situation is general; the market of corn and ethanol in Jilin Province in Northeast China is weak, the edible inventory of large enterprises is general, and the order delivery and transaction are weak; the factory delivery situation in Heilongjiang Province is fair, the price of small factories is not high, and the price of automobile transportation is low; there are many supplies of alcohol delivered to Northeast China in East China, and the downstream needs to be For the weak; the price of ethanol in Shandong Province is stable, the enterprise quotation is stable, and the downstream demand is weak; 95% of the ethanol in Guangdong Province in South China market is not abundant at present, most of the production enterprises are shut down, and the heard export is also slightly increased, the market is slightly increased; at present, only the molasses production enterprises in Guangxi Province are operating in Haiying plant, and other molasses ethanol enterprises are shut down, and the material cost in plateau is low Under the support of Guangxi molasses alcohol market, it temporarily maintained weak and stable consolidation.
Industry chain: corn: the price of corn in China is still mainly rising, with less arrival in North China, and the price of corn continues to rise strongly. As there are few grain sources left at the grass-roots level, traders are optimistic about the future market, and they are generally reluctant to sell. It is expected that there is still some room for growth.
| PVA |
Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate market fell sharply this week. Due to the cancellation of some export orders of China’s ethyl acetate from April to may in the later period, all parties in the market became more bearish towards the latter period of ethyl acetate. The new single purchase of ethyl acetate was mainly rational, the inventory digestion of suppliers was slow, and the passive competition between suppliers for shipment drove the market transaction down. This week, the raw material acetic acid dropped significantly, giving some room for profit to ethyl acetate. Although the price of some raw material outsourcing enterprises has been near the cost line, but under the inventory pressure and the competitive pressure of mainstream manufacturers, the market as a whole still fell passively. Jiangsu Lianhai parking in the middle of the week is expected to recover in a week. However, the overall spot inventory of the ethyl acetate Market is high. Jiangsu Lianhai parking has no support for the market, and the market continues to be negative in all aspects. If there is no obvious positive support in the short term, the ethyl acetate Market is expected to continue to decline.
3、 Future forecast
The price of raw material corn continues to rise, the production cost of some enterprises increases, and the downstream demand is limited. At present, the starting load of ethyl acetate enterprises is not high, the stock of raw materials is still high, the consumption of raw materials is limited, and the export situation increases or the stock drives the possibility of a wave of market. The price of northeast supply in East China is relatively low, and more northeast supply is consumed, and the production cost of cassava production enterprises is high, but at present Under the devaluation of Thai baht, the FOB price in Thailand is weak, which is good for the East China market; the low inventory price of production enterprises in Henan Province is rising, and the goods are in good condition under the psychology of buying up but not buying down, but it is possible that the goods will go down in the later period after the purchase is finished; the goods delivered from other places in the south market are few at present, but the later part of the goods will arrive at Hong Kong, the supply will increase, and the price will fall 。 Business alcohol analysts predict that the short-term ethanol market will show a regional trend.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |