Weak cost support, weak demand, PP price fell in March (3.1-4.1)

1、 Price trend


According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market fell in March, and the spot price decreased significantly. As of April 1, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 6550.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of March.


PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

2、 Cause analysis


Upstream: on the upstream side, propylene was affected by OPEC meeting and international market game in March, and the news of international crude oil’s multiple downturns was obviously negative for propylene. At present, the propylene operating rate is not high and the inventory is not much, so the early decline is not significant, and the later decline trend is gradually obvious. The downstream isopropanol is one of the raw materials of disinfectant, which has a positive impact on propylene due to the impact of public health events. But other downstream market declines are large. In addition, downstream factories have narrow profit space, and the industry is generally bearish, dragging down the price of propylene, resulting in a volatile decline in March. At the beginning of April, there may be more propylene enterprises to start production and increase production. It is expected that propylene price will continue to explore trend in recent days;



Product: in March, the price of domestic PP market fell in shock, and the waiting atmosphere on the whole was still heavy. Petrochemical enterprises are under pressure to reduce the factory price, and traders are down. The resumption of downstream PP plant is normal, and the operation rate is not ideal. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing inquiry is low, and the demand follow-up is weak. The business confidence is not strong, the message face lacks clear guidance message and the stock gradually builds up, the traders mostly quote according to their own inventory situation. The overall performance of futures is also short, which is obvious with falling sentiment.


3、 Future forecast


PP analysts of the business club think: there is no doubt that the domestic PP spot market in March was affected by the complex impact of domestic shutdown, and the price fell. The upstream propylene price also fell in shock, and the support for PP cost end was not good. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be further improved. In terms of demand, the order follow-up is not timely, and small orders are mainly concluded. Petrochemical plant inventory pressure, the end of the month to complete the task of profit. PP market is expected to continue to weaken in the near future.