1、 Price trend
According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3450 yuan / ton, down 8.73% on last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
|PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)|
1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, and Saudi Arabia and Russia have no sign of resuming production reduction negotiations. Affected by this, the international crude oil price continues to fall sharply this week, as well as the price of toluene in the South Korean market, the main source of toluene import. Although domestic enterprises have entered the resumption period, the market demand is improving slowly, and the domestic toluene price Georgia followed the decline. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3600 yuan / ton.
2. Industrial chain:
Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price remained wide and volatile after the sharp fall at the beginning of this week. As of Friday, Brent futures fell 7.21%, Brent futures fell 4.12%, WTI futures fell 0.77% and Dubai futures fell 10.45%.
In the downstream, TDI, at present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is about 10100 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market trend of TDI will be hard to be optimistic next week. Pay close attention to the later information guidance of the factory and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 5000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about $473 / ton for FOB South Korea and $491 / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a downward trend next week.
3、 Future forecast
Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, concern about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. Overall, it is expected that toluene prices in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will continue to fluctuate broadly next week, and toluene prices in the domestic market may follow the shocks next week.