1. Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI price closed at 30,440 yuan / ton, a decrease of 260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell slightly.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic TDI market fell slightly this month. Shandong Dongda Yinuowei Polyurethane Co., Ltd. reported domestic production of 30,500 yuan / ton; Shanghai Xingrong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported dow30500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported that Zhangzhou Dahua 30,500 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd. reported BASF 30200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The market continued to fall slightly this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for the fall will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved.

Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.

III. Conclusions and prospects

According to analysis by business community data analysts: TDI continued to decline slightly in the short term, and the peak season is expected to be flat. The gold, nine, and silver markets need to be stimulated, and there will be no small growth.

First, the price trend:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic crude benzene market price increased slightly this week, and the price closed at 5,369 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.74%.

Second, the market analysis:

Product: The price of crude benzene in China is large this week. As of Friday, the mainstream price in Shandong was around 5,450 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Shanxi was around 5,300 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia was around 5,400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The crude benzene market fell slightly this week. The price of hydrogenated benzene in the downstream continued to retreat by about 100 yuan, but the profit declined. The crude benzene continued to rise in the late stage and the resistance was relatively high. Prices are expected to continue to fall.

Third, the trend forecast:

The crude benzene analyst of the business community believes that there has been a slight correction and it is expected to continue to call back later.

After a continuous surge, Russia’s August crude oil production growth rate has slowed significantly.

According to data released by the Russian Ministry of Energy on Sunday, in August, Russia’s crude oil production was 11.11 million barrels per day, unchanged from last month. In addition, Russia’s export crude oil output in August rose 1.9% in August, reaching 5.55 million barrels per day.

In the two months of June and July, Russian crude oil production soared, and the July production reached Russia’s new monthly high since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, second only to the fourth quarter of 2016.

On September 23, OPEC and other oil-producing countries will meet in Algeria to discuss the current situation of the crude oil market.

In addition to OPEC, Russia currently plays a pivotal role in the global crude oil market. In 2017, Russia produced the first oil in the world.

Earlier, Wall Street saw that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s cooperation in crude oil prices had an obvious impact on international oil prices:

In December 2016, Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a production reduction agreement to push up global oil prices. The effect of cooperation between the two countries was immediate. In October 2017, the price of oil increased to $60/barrel. In May 2018, the price of oil broke through $80/barrel.

For the Trump administration, although I don’t like OPEC, the OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Qatar are not under the control. Under the sanctions, a tweet can make OPEC is shaking, but Russia’s production capacity is uncontrollable.

Trump has been opposed to high oil prices in recent months, on the one hand to avoid increasing inflation and hurting the US economy; and the current market share of the United States is limited, capacity is experiencing bottlenecks, and crude oil exporters cannot benefit the most from high oil prices. Oil prices are cheaper for Russia and OPEC countries.

Therefore, the United States asked OPEC to increase production and lower oil prices, while increasing sanctions against Iran and Russia, curbing the expansion and export of crude oil capacity between the two countries, and opening up markets for US crude oil. US sanctions against Russia include bans on exports of goods, services or technology needed to support the exploration or production of Russian deep-water, Arctic offshore or shale projects to curb Russia’s oil production potential.

On August 26, the rare earth index was 348 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 65.20% lower than the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06), which was 28.41% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

The average price of metal lanthanum in rare earth metals is 407,500 yuan / ton; the average price of metal bismuth is 1.625 million yuan / ton; the average price of metal bismuth is 660,000 yuan / ton. The average price of lanthanum oxide in rare earth oxides is 322,500 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 1,142,500 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 410,000 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 316,500 yuan / ton. The average price of niobium alloy in rare earth alloy is 41,250 yuan/ton; the average price of niobium-iron alloy is 1.15 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the index of rare earth mining has been released, totaling 120,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with 2017. However, the price trend of some rare earth products in China has temporarily stabilized, and the price of niobium oxide has risen slightly. Most rare earth separation enterprises have stopped production, resulting in supply. Decline, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, and the recent recent procurement cycle, some commodity prices in the rare earth market rebounded slightly. Recently, the trading volume in the market is very limited. The major manufacturers of products are also cautiously waiting to see each other. The mutual inquiry has become more frequent. The downstream receiving goods are not actively leading to the low price of some rare earth products. The rare earth analysts of the business community are expected to be in the near future. The impact of the US trade war, the export of rare earth to the United States is subject to certain restrictions, but the recent rare earth market is about to enter the procurement cycle, it is expected that the rare earth market will rebound in the later period.

1. Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI price closed at 30,700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.92% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell slightly.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic TDI market fell slightly this month. Shandong Dongda Yinuowei Polyurethane Co., Ltd. reported domestic 31,000 yuan / ton; Shanghai Xingrong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported dow30500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Charcoal Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported Zhangzhou Dahua 30,000 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Ltd. reported BASF 31,000 yuan / ton, domestic 30500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The market continued to fall slightly this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for falling will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved.

Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.

III. Conclusions and prospects

According to analysis by business community data analysts: TDI continued to decline slightly in the short term, and the peak season is expected to be flat.