According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 3490 yuan/ton and then fell to around 3360 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.72% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 18.62%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.39%. The domestic methanol market trading is still mainly influenced by geopolitics, and the rising sentiment on the futures side is gradually transmitted to the spot market; Supported by the continuous destocking of enterprises, the increasing demand for locally sourced olefins, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, methanol prices have shown a significant surge.
As of the close on April 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 3089 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3300 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3043 yuan/ton. It closed at 3175 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 27 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 1584666, the position is 361418, and the daily increase is -56991.
On the cost side, the overall supply of coal is stable, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. Coal prices are mainly stable, and the cost side is stable. The cost impact is mixed.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, methanol prices continue to rise significantly. Although there has been a decline, the weekly average price remains high. Some downstream industries are struggling to keep up with the trend, and negative feedback from end products is becoming increasingly severe, resulting in a passive narrowing of production profits for most downstream industries. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
Supply side, some enterprise equipment maintenance; Some enterprises have restored their equipment; The overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in production and a rise in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 10th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $679-681/ton, down $10/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 141-143 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 510-512 euros/ton, down 9 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, with the support of fundamental factors such as tight supply and demand patterns and continuous inventory depletion, although the price increase has slowed down, the overall trend will remain strong. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be mainly dominated by strong consolidation.
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