On January 23, the first International Symposium on “Crossing the Oil Age” was held in Beijing. The preliminary report on the implementation of total petroleum consumption control plan and policy research (hereinafter referred to as “the report”) issued at the symposium pointed out that, with the promotion of clean energy, low carbon, safe, efficient transformation and high-quality economic development, China’s total petroleum consumption could reach a peak of 720 million yuan in 2025. Tons.
This will help to achieve the goal of global temperature control of less than 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.
The meeting was sponsored by China EV 100 and China Petroleum Consumption Total Control Program and Policy Research Group (hereinafter referred to as the Oil Control Research Project). The meeting focused on the oil control path, situation analysis of peak oil consumption in China, and the real cost of oil.
China has become the world’s second largest oil consumer and the largest oil importer. Domestic oil consumption and imports are growing steadily.
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According to the data of “Development Report of Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad in 2017″ (hereinafter referred to as “Report”) issued by the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China Petroleum Group, China’s apparent crude oil consumption in 2017 is 610 million tons.
The report points out that China’s total petroleum consumption control work focuses on the transportation and petrochemical industries. In 2017, China’s transportation oil accounted for more than half of its oil consumption, and petrochemical oil accounted for more than 15%.
The report predicts that transportation oil consumption will peak between 2023 and 2025. We should actively promote the optimization of transportation structure, accelerate the popularization of new energy vehicles, and formulate a timetable and road map for the exit of traditional fuel vehicles.
Chen Qingtai, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the development of electric vehicles will reduce the demand for oil in the transportation industry. The coordinated development of the automobile revolution and the energy revolution will also greatly improve the energy structure.
“Making the top-level design and timetable of the scientifically proven development strategy of electric vehicles is to lead China’s economy across the”bullnose”of the oil era. Chen Qingtai said.
The report points out that under the circumstances of low self-sufficiency and huge supply gap of some petrochemical products, the capacity scale of the chemical industry should be reasonably controlled and the regeneration of resources should be encouraged.
The most typical way to promote resource regeneration is to recycle plastic products. The report shows that 0.85 tons of plastic raw materials can be obtained for every ton of waste plastics recovered, which is equivalent to saving 1 ton of oil.
Oil consumption is expected to peak in 2030, according to the 2007 edition of World and China Energy Outlook 2050 released by the Institute of Economic and Technological Research of China Petroleum Group. According to the forecast, the proportion of non-fossil energy in China will be about 35% in 2050, which will change from the situation of “one coal is dominant” to that of coal, oil and gas and non-fossil energy.
According to BP Energy Outlook, by 2040, oil, natural gas, coal and non-fossil energy will each account for one fourth of the world’s energy resources.
Fu Chengyu, chairman of the core group of the Oil Control Research Project and former chairman of Sinopec, said that since the Paris Accord set the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century, many countries have accelerated the transformation from fossil energy to low carbon energy.
In view of the transformation of energy system to clean energy, Zhang Yuqing, former deputy director of the State Energy Administration, said, “The direction of energy development at the Nineteenth National Congress is to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. However, as fuel and chemical raw materials in important transportation fields, petroleum will be difficult to replace in the future for a long time.
Zhang Yuqing said that the current global energy resources layout and pattern have undergone profound changes. In order to ensure China’s energy security, it is necessary to intensify domestic oil exploration and development efforts, strive to maintain oil production at 200 million tons, accelerate the capacity of natural gas industry to increase reserves, increase production and emergency reserves, and promote the coordinated development of natural gas and new energy.
“More importantly, we should make efficient use of oil from the demand side, accelerate the popularization and application of natural gas in the field of transportation, and slow down the growth of oil consumption demand.” Zhang Yuqing said.