According to data from Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene rubber market has been rising for five consecutive months since November 2025, with the highest price reaching 18140 yuan/ton on April 7th, an increase of 62.69%. As of April 14th, the market price of butadiene rubber was 16640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.27% from its peak.
From November to December 2025, the supply of butadiene rubber in the market will shrink slightly, and the demand for essential goods will be weak, resulting in a slight increase in butadiene rubber prices at the bottom. On the supply side, the average operating load of domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber plants reached 71.44%, and some enterprises stopped for maintenance; On the demand side, downstream tires with all steel tires have started production at around 6.30%, and semi steel tires have started production at around 7.10%, providing overall demand support, but high priced transactions are weak.
Starting from January 2026, the market growth rate of butadiene rubber will gradually expand. The core driving factors are concentrated in three aspects: firstly, the downstream actively stocked up before the Lunar New Year, and the tire production rebounded significantly after the holiday, which supported the demand for butadiene rubber; At the end of February, the Middle East conflict led to high international crude oil prices, widening the supply gap of butadiene and driving up the production cost of butadiene rubber; The combination of routine maintenance and rising costs in three enterprises has led to passive production cuts due to losses, further exacerbating supply shortages.
From the perspective of the Shunding Rubber Index on Shengyi Society’s spot trading platform, starting from mid November 2025, the price curve of Shunding rubber will successively cross the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages, ushering in a 5-month upward cycle for Shunding rubber.
In early April, with the news of the US Iran negotiations, the bullish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market gradually weakened, and the price of butadiene rubber fell from a high level. However, due to some equipment still undergoing maintenance or negative load reduction, the extent of butadiene rubber’s decline was limited under tight supply conditions.
Future forecast
Looking ahead to the future, from an industrial perspective, although the current Middle East conflict has cooled down in the short term, the shipping problem has not been substantially resolved. In addition, the shortage of raw material butadiene has not eased, the supply contraction pattern continues, and downstream tire demand remains stable. Therefore, there is still support for butadiene rubber in the short term. In the medium to long term, with the release of new domestic butadiene production capacity, the tight supply situation is expected to ease. In addition, with the resumption of production of butadiene rubber plants and the commissioning of new production capacity, prices may face downward pressure.
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