On January 23, the Asian acetone market closed at a stable price of $498-501 per ton, CFR China.

The U.S. Gulf acetone market closed at a stable price of $738-762 per ton on January 23, FOB U.S. Gulf.

On January 22, the PX commodity index was 68.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.81% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 51.04% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia rose to about 80%. On January 22, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 7 US dollars per ton. The closing price was US$106 5-1067 per ton FOB in Korea and US$108 4-1086 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports were needed. The decline of foreign prices had a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the domestic market price maintained 8,600 yuan per ton.

On January 22, the price of WTI crude oil in March fell to 52.57 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 1.23 U.S. dollars. The price of Brent crude oil in March fell to 61.50 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 1.24 U.S. dollars. The price of crude oil slightly declined. The price support for downstream petrochemical products was limited, and the price trend of p-xylene Market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market is general, PTA price has risen sharply recently. The average price of offer in East China is raised near 6600-6800 yuan/ton. As of 22 days, domestic PTA start-up rate is about 81.5% and polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%. In addition, the market price of PTA has risen sharply. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 8600 yuan/ton in the later period.

“After the price cut in 2018, lithium products will remain at a low price for some time, or return to a high point around 2025.” Li, chairman of Lubon Industry Co., Ltd., said at the Asian Battery Metal Seminar held on January 17.

With the release of new capacity, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell all the way in 2018, offering only 77,000-82,000 yuan/ton in December, a drop of 53.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide fell slightly, but the December offer also fell 23.19% from the beginning of the year.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), the new capacity of lithium hydroxide in China in 2018 totals about 355,000 tons, of which Ganfeng lithium industry and Ruifu lithium industry in Shandong have achieved mass production. Domestic lithium hydroxide production in 2018 is expected to be about 57,000 tons, an increase of 78.1% over last year.

According to the prediction of China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch, driven by power batteries, the global demand for lithium carbonate will increase from 265,000 tons in 2017 to 400,000 tons in 2020. However, considering that capacity growth is faster than demand growth, the global supply and demand structure of lithium products is reversing. It is estimated that by 2021, China will increase lithium production capacity by about 206,500 tons and the world will increase lithium production capacity by about 409,500 tons, but the global demand for new lithium products is only about 200,000 tons in the same period.

Huatai Securities believes that in 2019, the trend of lithium supply and demand pattern from balance to excess is difficult to reverse, and lithium prices have gradually approached industry costs.

“But excess is a short-term phenomenon, and lithium is scarce in the long run.” Liu Nanping said that historical data show that the price cycle of lithium products is about 10 years. With the rapid growth of demand and supply, this cycle may be shortened. It is expected that the price of lithium products will return to high prices around 2025. By then, the global demand for lithium carbonate may exceed one million tons.

Another industry insider, who did not want to be named, was more optimistic, arguing that the growth in demand for power batteries brought about by electrification in the transport sector would push lithium prices up rapidly in 2023.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts that by 2020, China’s sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, with more than 5 million vehicles in possession. According to the target of the medium and long-term development plan of the automobile industry, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 7 million by 2025.

According to Haitong Securities’recent research report, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 3.429 million by 2020, and the corresponding demand for lithium carbonate will reach 139.8 million tons.

Some industry analysts predict that the downstream demand for lithium carbonate will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 16% over the next five years. With the extensive application of high nickel batteries, the demand for lithium hydroxide will also increase rapidly. It is estimated that the composite growth rate of global demand for lithium hydroxide in battery field will reach 78% from 2018 to 2020.

According to Standard & Poor’s, lithium demand for electric passenger cars will increase by about ten times by 2025.

At present, it has been proved that the global lithium reserves are about 16 million tons and the resources are about 53 million tons. Mainly distributed in Chile, Argentina, Australia and other countries, of which China reserves about 3.2 million tons, resources about 7 million tons.

Liu Bingjiang, director of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said in Beijing on Monday that in 2018, China’s key regions continued to implement total coal consumption control. For the first time, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption was less than 60%, and the consumption of non-fossil energy and natural gas increased significantly.

Liu Bingjiang said that in 2018, China steadily carried out energy restructuring and optimization. For the first time, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption is less than 60%, and the consumption of non-fossil energy and natural gas has increased significantly. All localities have actively promoted the comprehensive renovation of coal-fired boilers, and more than 30,000 small boilers under 10 steam tons per hour have been eliminated in accordance with the law throughout the country. In key areas, we will accelerate the elimination of coal-fired boilers below 35 steam tons per hour, and actively promote the transformation of ultra-low emissions of coal-fired boilers above 65 steam tons per hour.

China is a country with more coal and less oil. The proven coal reserves account for 33.8% of the world’s coal reserves. China’s coal output ranked first in the world for many years. Coal played a leading role in China’s disposable energy structure. In the 1950s, coal consumption accounted for 90% of the total energy. In recent years, under the constraints of economic transformation, environmental protection and other factors, the growth rate of coal consumption has slowed down significantly. Coal accounted for 69.2% of energy consumption in 2010 and 64% in 2015.

The National Strategic Action Plan for Energy Development (2014-2020) proposed that by 2020, China’s total coal consumption should be controlled at about 4.2 billion tons, with a proportion of less than 62%, and that Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong provinces and cities should reduce their coal consumption by 100 million tons compared with 2012, while the total coal consumption in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions will increase negatively.

Liu Bingjiang said that 2019 was the year when China won the battle to defend the blue sky. We will speed up the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, energy structure, transportation structure and land use structure in conjunction with relevant departments in various regions, promote economic development and environmental protection, and promote the continuous improvement of air quality in the country.