I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the price of domestic cis-butadiene rubber rose slightly this week (5.20-5.24). At the beginning of the week, the price was 11312 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 11362 yuan/ton, up 0.44%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (5.20-5.24) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price increased by 300 yuan/ton, as of May 24, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price increased by 11500 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: China imported 557,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2019, a decrease of 4.13%. From January to April 2019, China imported 212.8 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices rose slightly this week, the cost side supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to the business association, butadiene was 8081 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8370 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 3.58 percent on the whole.

Demand: According to the statistics bureau, the output of domestic rubber tyres in April 2019 was 73.758 million, down 0.8% from the same period last year; the output of domestic rubber tyres in January-April was 26.633 million, down 3.6% from the same period last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream butadiene has risen slightly, which supports the price of synthetic rubber, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber is weak, and the overall negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber is formed. In the later period, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will maintain a narrow fluctuation.

First, the price trend

The price of Trichloromethane in China continued to rise this week, with 2780 yuan/ton at the start of the week in Shandong, and an average price of 2930 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 5.4%, according to business’s bulk data monitoring.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Product Reason: This week, the domestic trichloromethane market is affected by the strong demand for downstream refrigerant, the price continues to rise, the current Shandong region Chloromethane quote 2930-2960 yuan/ton or so, Jiangsu region quoted 4000 yuan/ton or so: Jiangxi quote 3700 yuan/ton or so.

In terms of construction, jinling chemical plant to resume production, the current construction of about 80%, dongying jinmao full load operation, Luxi chemical plant started 60%, Jiangsu Liwen Plant started normal, Jiangxi Liwen plant normal operation and so on. Industrial chain: Upstream, this week the domestic methanol market performance is strong, local prices continue to move up. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market in 2288 yuan/ton, the weekend reported 2342 yuan/ton, the increase of 2.36% in the week, the price is 23.18% lower than the same period last year, the liquid chlorine market supply and demand two weak, the overall performance is stable, enterprises more than 300-600 yuan/ton.

Downstream, R22 refrigerant market in the high season, the overall performance is better, the market trading active, is the Enterprise Scatterwater Factory reported 18500-18800 yuan/ton. Industry: According to business price monitoring, in the 20th Week of 2019 (5.20-5.24) commodity prices rose and fell in the chemical sector a total of 17 kinds of goods, including more than 5% of the total number of goods 1, accounting for the sector of 1.4% of monitored goods; the top 3 of the goods were Trichloromethane (5.4%) , Butadiene (3.57%), fluorite (3.28%).

A total of 28 items fell in the ring, a total of 6 products fell above 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the number of goods monitored in the sector, and the first 3 of the decreases were TDI (-15.15%), sulfuric acid (-8.79%) and polymerized MDI (-7.2%).

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society Methane chloride Data analyst believes that the current Trichloromethane market supply gap has gradually eased, the industry supply and demand two strong, trading atmosphere is good, it is expected that in the future a short period of time methane chloride market high strength.

May 22 The PX Commodity Index was 60.00, the same as yesterday, down 41.41% from 102.4 at the highest point in the cycle (2013-02-28), up 31.72% from its lowest 45.55 point on February 15, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to date). According to statistics, 23rd domestic market price trend of xylene, the field installation of Pengzhou petrochemical Plant stable operation, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Fuhai invasive aromatic device driving a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refining Plant Maintenance, Hengli petrochemical PX device put into production, other devices temporarily stable operation, As a result of the new installation of domestic paraxylene market supply normal, the market price trend of xylene is temporarily stable. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is around 80%, May 22 in the Asian region, the market price of xylene is 3 U.S. dollars/ton, the closing price is 838-840 U.S. dollars/ton FOB Korea and 857-859 U.S. dollar/ton CFR China, more than 50% of domestic needs to import,

The low price of foreign plate has a certain negative effect on the domestic market price of xylene, and the price trend of xylene in the field is stable. May 22 U.S. WTI crude oil July futures market prices fell, reported 61.42 U.S. dollars/barrels, a decline of 1.71 U.S. dollars, Brent crude oil July futures prices fell, reported 70.99 U.S. dollars/Barrels, The decline of 1.19 U.S. dollars, crude oil price trend decline, for the downstream petrochemical product prices lost a certain cost support role, the xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market stability, PTA price 23rd trend small decline, east China’s average price in 6000-6100 yuan/ton near self-mention, as of 22nd domestic PTA start rate in about 83.7%, polyester industry start rate of about 87.5%, downstream production and sales rate to maintain a high, But the PTA market price is slightly lower, and the late PX market price is expected to be slightly lower.

According to business price data monitoring, as of May 22, 1.2D viscose staple Fiber Domestic factory price of 12388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21%, the decline of 412 yuan/ton, compared with the same period last year, decreased by 18.49%, a decrease of 2812 yuan/ton, the decline was large to surprising.

Mid-end Factory quotation 11900-12300 yuan/ton, high-end factory quotation 12400-12800 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price discount of 200-300 yuan/ton. Upstream cotton short velvet domestic market price to maintain stability, local small rise.

Cotton oil plant Start-up rate is low, resulting in cotton short velvet production is very low, support cotton short velvet market, has long been affected by environmental protection inspection, downstream start rate has been low, and imported short velvet price is low, manufacturers purchase high-priced short velvet discreet, market transactions Limited, suppress domestic short velvet prices, expected short-term or volatile finishing. Due to the recent serious loss of viscose staple fiber price, some factories have been discontinued in a small area. Among them, Nanjing chemical Fiber recently announced that since the second half of 2018, Viscose staple fiber market continued to be depressed, the company Viscose staple fiber product sales difficulties, inventory continued to rise, the company decided to temporarily cut off from now on the inspection of the inventory. The company will determine the recovery time according to the adhesive staple fiber market situation, the estimated shutdown time does not exceed three months.

Since October last year, Nanjing Chemical Fiber has been shut down the annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of viscose filament production line, the end of last year completed the transfer of the ownership of the Orchid (Nanjing) stake in all the relevant procedures, no longer hold the LAN Jing (Nanjing) equity. Downstream 30S Cotton yarn as of May 22, Shandong region factory average price of 18200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.46%, decreased by 850 yuan/ton, compared with the same period last year decreased by 9.19%, the decline of up to 1842 Yuan/ton. Most of the factory quotes are more concentrated, the mid-end factory quoted 17500-18000 yuan/ton, high-end factory quotes 18100-18800 yuan/ton. By the further deterioration of Sino-US trade relations, market pessimism permeated, the domestic yarn market almost all fell, some yarn type prices fell sharply.

First at home and abroad cotton prices plummeted, yarn costs with the same drop; second, cotton yarn futures prices plunged sharply; third, Chinese and foreign yarn inventory hit an all-time high, leading to the recent yarn market bearish overlay. To sum up, upstream cotton short velvet prices have been crushed, viscose from the second half of 18 began to produce enterprise product inventory continued to rise, production capacity concentrated, resulting in the viscose staple fiber market oversupply, late start rate decline, downstream yarn is also internal, spot futures all the decline, coupled with the current Sino-US trade relations, bearish textile industry, Forcing many people in the industry to withdraw from the adhesive market. The late adhesive is expected to continue to decline, the actual transaction price in the vicinity of 12000 yuan/ton.

First, the price trend According to business data monitoring shows: Under the influence of the international economic environment, the domestic zinc price shock fell after May. As at May 19, the price of zinc 21640.00 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of this month zinc price 22133.33 yuan/ton fell, a decrease of 2.23%. Zinc prices rose 3.11% from the same period last year.

Overall May zinc market shock fell, zinc market bearish.

Second, the market trend analysis

Product aspects:

Time

LME Futures Market

Shanghai Futures Market

Inventory

Price

Inventory

Price

2019-5-1

85050 tons

USD 2825/ton

36469 tons

21660 yuan/ton

2019-5-20

104850 tons

USD 2563/ton

29422 tons

20900 yuan/ton

Change

19800 tons

-258 USD/ton

-7047 tons

-760 yuan/ton

© 2019.5 Business Club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the chart, May LME market Zinc ingot inventory surged, zinc ingot supply growth, dragging down the price of zinc market, zinc price fell sharply; Shanghai futures market Zinc ingot inventory has dropped significantly, the price of zinc has a certain positive impact, but the global market zinc supply is still growing state, the zinc market formed a bearish.

International Enterprises: Statistics show that Lundin Company produced 40446 tons of zinc concentrate in the first quarter, an increase of 10% year-on-week, exceeding the company’s expected output.

Zinc concentrate production growth exceeded expectations, zinc market supply increased, zinc city to maintain an oversupply, zinc city to form a greater bearish.

Data statistics: The international lead and Zinc research Group (ILZSG) said in Thursday that global demand for refined zinc was expected to be over supply in 2019 and that there would be a shortage of 121,000 tonnes in the market. ILZSG said the demand for refined zinc in 2019 was estimated to increase by 0.6% to 13.77 million tonnes and had remained stable over the past four years. Zinc market expected to rise on the price of zinc has a certain positive.

But the benefits are limited and it is difficult to form long-term support for zinc prices. Data from the Ministry of Information and Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2019, China’s zinc production of 1.31 million tons, an increase of 5.1%. The decrease of zinc production in China has certain benefits to the domestic zinc market.

But the global zinc market oversupply situation, the domestic zinc market is difficult to have a better performance.

Sino-US Trade war: May 9–The U.S. government announced that the tariff rate on the 200 billion dollar list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25% since May 10. May 13, China’s State Council tariff committee issued a notice that from 0 o’clock on the June 1, will be imposed tariffs on the 60 billion of dollars list of United States goods, the increase in tariff rates, respectively, the implementation of 25%, 20% or 10% of the levy tariff. 5% tariffs continue to be imposed on items that have previously been imposed on tariff lines of 5%.

Sino-US trade disputes escalated, the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, the non-ferrous metal market became negative, zinc demand bearish, zinc prices rose powerless.

Trump delays imposing tariffs on cars U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to delay the decision to impose tariffs on imported cars and parts for six months to temporarily avoid expanding global trade disputes, foreign media four reported. Trump’s delay in imposing tariffs on cars comes at a time when the United States is trying to reach a potential trade deal with China to end escalating conflict. The suspension of the imposition of tariffs on cars in the United States has created a greater boon for the auto market.

With global car sales continuing to decline, tariff policies will only ensure that demand for zinc in the car market does not decline significantly, making it difficult to guarantee higher demand for zinc.

Third, the outlook of the aftermarket Business analyst Baijia said: From the inventory data can be seen, the global supply of zinc market has risen sharply, zinc city is still in an oversupply state, although there is a forecast of 2019 zinc market demand rise, but small demand rise is difficult to form an effective support for the continued rise in zinc prices. The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has worsened the macroeconomic environment and led to the deterioration of the zinc market, although the United States has delayed its policy of tariff increases on the European Union and Japan in order to ease global trade disputes, but today, as the global car continues to decline, tariff policies have only slowed the decline in car sales, and demand for zinc has not increased. The positive for zinc market is limited. Overall zinc market is greater than good, after the price of zinc rose weak. Expected after the market zinc price shock fell.