Iran has launched a new strategy to export crude oil and change oil export destinations after the United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, an Iranian maritime official said 18th. Hadi Hakosenas, deputy Director of maritime affairs at the Iranian Port and Maritime Organization, is the source, and the semi-official Iranian Labour news agency reported: “The Iranian Ministry of Oil’s strategy of exporting crude oil and refined oil has changed … Perhaps the destination for exporting crude oil from our port has also changed.

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Hakosenas did not elaborate on the new strategy and new destinations. Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue with six countries, including the United States, in July 2015, promising to limit its nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions on it by the international community. The United States announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal last May 8 and resumed sanctions against it.

Reuters reported in April that the resumption of sanctions by the United States had reduced Iranian crude oil exports from more than 2.5 million barrels a day to about 1 million barrels. The US side recently lifted the sanctions exemption for 8 Iranian crude oil importers, seeking to “clear 0″ Iranian crude oil exports.

Iran’s crude oil exports fell to 500,000 barrels a day in May, Reuters reported 18th.

The Iranian government has stopped informing the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries of crude oil production. “It cannot be denied that there are fewer exports of crude oil and refined oil than ever before, but we have absolutely not stopped,” Hakosenas said. ”

According to Oil and Gas Pipeline News, OPEC’s oil production declined in April, and the organization expects demand to increase in 2019, suggesting a contraction in supply.

In its monthly oil report, OPEC said its daily production fell 3,000 barrels to 30.31 million barrels annually in April. Despite a slight drop in output, Saudi Arabia’s daily output has also fallen by 45,000 barrels.

Meanwhile, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.21 million barrels a day this year to an average of 99.94 million barrels a day, and OPEC oil demand will increase by 300,000 barrels a day to 30.6 million barrels a day in 2019.

OPEC also expects US oil production to decline. This is due to constraints that limit the ability to transport Permian oil to the Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States, as well as the impact of lower drilling and completion activities in major shale blocks.

The daily output of shale oil in the United States is expected to increase by 1.32 million barrels in 2019 compared with the same period last year, reaching an average of 7.88 million barrels, a decrease of 280,000 barrels compared with the forecast in 2018.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PC market continued to be weak in mid-May. As of May 16, domestic producers and traders offered an average price of about 18,900 yuan/ton for Bayer 2805.

II. Cause Analysis

Since this month, the upstream trend of bisphenol A in PC has been weaker. Businessmen are not confident enough, trading resistance is greater, intermediaries cut prices and take orders, prices are running at a low level. Downstream factories just need to purchase, demand has not improved. The on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the expectation of the future market may be poor, and the cost support for the domestic PC market is not good. The operating rate of PC devices in China is general, but the stock pressure increases in the traditional overhaul peak season, and the main theme of the contradiction between supply and demand remains unchanged. Businessmen’s psychology is generally bearish, and the unstable external news aggravates the negative market mentality. Downstream demand has not improved, PC offer is weak and deadlocked.

3. Future Market Forecast

PC analysts of business associations believe that the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic PC market is prominent in mid-May, and the turnover is weak. External news turmoil intensified and offer was weak and deadlocked. It is expected that the recent trend is likely to be weak and difficult to change.

On May 14, the PX commodity index was 60.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.41% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 31.72% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On the 15th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units were running steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market, the market of p-xylene was under normal operation. Price trend is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 14, the market price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 29 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 845-847 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 864-866 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On May 14, the price of WTI crude oil in June rose to $61.78 per barrel, an increase of $0.74. The price of Brent crude oil in July rose to $71.24 per barrel, an increase of $1.01. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has stabilized temporarily, PTA price declined on the 15th day. The average price of East China is raised near 6550-6650 yuan/ton. As of the 14th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price has not changed much, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

On Monday, as the Sino-US trade war intensified, China responded with copper prices falling to a 15-week low. In afternoon trading, copper delivered in July hit $2.709 per pound ($5,972 per ton), down 2.4% from Friday’s closing price.

China will impose a 25% tariff on $60 billion in imports from the United States, including diamonds, rubies and emeralds, iron ore, nickel, zinc and titanium. Lithium is exempted and will continue to be subject to a 5% tariff.

Last Friday, the United States imposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, with nearly 6,000 products currently subject to 25% tariffs, up from 10% before. The United States imports about $540 billion worth of goods from China every year, while China imports $120 billion worth of goods every year.

China imports nearly half of the world’s copper. Until trade disputes begin to affect the prospects of industrial metals, China’s economic growth has been slowing.

Automobile and Electronic Products

China has also imposed higher tariffs on a range of electronic products and household appliances, including television cameras, telecommunications equipment and microwave ovens.

In a report last week, Capital Economics pointed out that some metals are “more vulnerable than others to trade disruptions between the United States and China”. Given that electronics account for about 30% of U.S. imports from China, the price of metals (especially tin) widely used in the electronics industry seems particularly at risk, the research company said.

With the exception of aluminium, prices of basic metals fell across the board on Monday, and lead prices fell to their lowest levels in nearly three years. Equally frustrating is the data showing that China’s car sales fell by nearly 14.6% in April from a year earlier, the 10th consecutive month of year-on-year decline.

Passenger car sales were hit harder, with sales of 1.54 million vehicles last month, down 16.6% year-on-year, the 11th consecutive month of decline. Domestic sales of battery-powered and hybrid vehicles were 91,000, down 17% from March, but up 28.4% from the same period in 2018.