I. trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on December 11, the spot nickel price increased slightly, with the quotation of 109900 yuan / ton, up 1.04% compared with the previous day, up 22.78% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 18.36% year on year. Shanghai nickel started trading at 104710 yuan, then continued to rise, closing at 107990 yuan, up 2.69%.

II. Market analysis

According to a copy of a new government regulation, Indonesia will raise the royalty tax on nickel ore sales from 5% to 10%, effective from December 25, including the royalty tax on sales of nickel pig iron. Indonesia’s increase in the right to sell and use nickel ore will lead to a rise in costs, with which nickel prices will rise. Basically, Indonesia’s ban of mining on January 1, 2020 ahead of schedule will lead to a domestic nickel gap next year, and the limited increase of nickel supply in the Philippines will support nickel. The price of downstream stainless steel is basically stable and the inventory is high, but the probability of large-scale production reduction driven by profit is small.

III. future prospects

Future forecast: the continued decline of the US dollar boosted the metal trend, Indonesia raised nickel ore sales and use right tax to boost nickel price, while the downstream stainless steel is not warm and not hot, and it is expected that the short-term nickel shock is strong.

On December 9, the rare earth index was 340 points, unchanged from yesterday, 66.00% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 25.46% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 364500 yuan / ton, 2075000 yuan / ton, 650000 yuan / ton, respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 289500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide is increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1710000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 342500 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide is 291500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 364500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1680000 yuan / ton.

The price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market continued to rise, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth improved, and the domestic price trend of heavy rare earth continued to rise. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of rare earth in the domestic market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

I. trend analysis

According to the data of the business agency, today’s domestic copper price changed from the previous narrow fluctuation trend, rising 1.56% to 48133.33 yuan / ton per day, rising nearly 800 yuan / ton per day, down 0.06% from the beginning of the year, up 2.55% year on year. The main reason is that China US trade negotiations are close to reaching the first stage agreement. In November, the domestic copper import data was stable and multiple positive results triggered the copper market.

II. Current chart

According to the data of the current period chart of the business agency, the main contract price is the price in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price, indicating that people’s expectations on copper price are not so good.

Macro oriented

U.S. non farm payrolls rose the most in 10 months in November, confirming that the economy is still expanding moderately, easing market concerns. The UK’s housing price index rose to a 7-month high in November after the quarter adjustment of Halifax, reflecting a significant improvement in the UK’s real estate market. At the end of the year, the economic meeting of the Political Bureau of China indicated that the policy was to support the economic growth and the Sino US trade negotiations were close to reaching the first stage agreement.

Low inventory

Copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to decline, falling below the 200000 ton mark to 193800 tons, a new low since May 29, according to data released on Friday. As of December 6, copper inventory in the previous period continued to decline, down 6.26%, to 112667 tons, a new low since the beginning of the year.

Scrap copper ran out of approvals in the fourth quarter

In terms of scrap copper, most domestic enterprises that need to import scrap copper say that the approval documents in the fourth quarter have been exhausted, and some enterprises actively purchase scrap copper ingots and other alternative raw materials in the market. On the supply side, it will still be tight in the future, and the global dominant inventory will decline.

Stable demand side

After entering the fourth quarter, China’s automobile and home appliance sales have improved, and the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased substantially year on year. With the end of the year infrastructure investment, copper market demand remains stable in the traditional off-season situation in the fourth quarter.

III. future prospects

Based on the above situation, the copper analyst of nonferrous branch of business agency thinks that: the Sino US trade negotiation is close to reaching the first stage agreement, the supply of copper is always tight, the inventory is low, and the demand is stable, but it enters the seasonal demand off-season in December, and it is expected that copper will maintain a strong operation trend, but the strength of the bank is limited.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, this week’s price reduction of aniline in Shandong region and Nanjing region promoted shipment. Last Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 6500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6100 yuan / ton, down 6.15% from last week, while that in Nanjing was 6600 yuan / ton, down 4.35% from last week.

II. Analysis and comment

Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5250-5450 yuan / ton, slightly higher than last week. The port inventory of pure benzene this week is lower than that of last week, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight, the negotiation atmosphere is good, driving the price up slightly

Product: from 8300-8700 yuan / ton in early November to 6100-6600 yuan / ton now, the decline is more than 23%, mainly due to the supply of aniline. At present, the profit of aniline is small. This week, the aniline plant is in normal operation and the enterprise has sufficient inventory. In order to stimulate the downstream to take goods, the price has been lowered twice.

III. future expectation

Raw materials: crude oil and foreign market are good for pure benzene market; spot supply is tight, and pure benzene enterprises are expected to raise their inventory.

Compared with the high price and high profit situation of aniline at the beginning of November, the profit of aniline is small at present, and the downward space is small. It is expected that aniline will maintain stable and weak operation and wait for the recovery opportunity.

I. price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market recovered in November and the spot price in the domestic market rose in a narrow range. As of November 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13050.00 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: ABS upstream, this month styrene market price shock finishing. The domestic supply is in good condition, and the port inventory remains high. In the late ten days, the international crude oil market continued to be positive, and the overall oil price fluctuated upward, giving styrene cost support. The upstream ethylene and pure benzene are slightly consolidated, the downstream PS and EPS prices are stable, the enterprise’s operating rate is good, the factory’s production and sales are stable, and the purchase is on demand. In the near December, arrival styrene will increase, which will bring a certain impact on the domestic styrene market supply. In the short term, styrene supply will increase, but the downstream price is strong, the operation is good, the styrene digestion capacity is good, and the current styrene price acceptance is high. It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the market guidance of the trend of external and bulk futures;

This month, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products was relatively stable, and the supply side remained balanced at the beginning and the middle of the month. Traders were cautious in their quotations, making more trades with lower profits. By the end of the month, there was a decrease in the supply of goods within the site and the supply began to be insufficient. The downstream waiting atmosphere is heavy and the replenishment enthusiasm is general. However, the attitude of the industry is stable, an

d the acrylonitrile market is up slightly at present;

In November, the market of butadiene was more volatile, and the price of ex factory products was up and down. At the beginning of the month, the sudden shutdown of Lanzhou Petrochemical Plant led to the increase of mutual supply of Fushun and Ningmei. In addition, Fushun Petrochemical also had a short-term shutdown plan. The unexpected news from the supply side boosted the market. However, the downstream demand follow-up is limited, and the market upward resistance is obvious. In addition, the supply of foreign ocean going cargo is abundant and the price is low, which obviously drags the domestic spot market. In the middle and late ten days, with the restart of Ningmei and Huayu units and the export of Fushun Petrochemical products, the increase of spot supply continued to put pressure on the market; however, at the same time, the external market stopped falling and stabilized, bringing support to the mentality of some merchants in East China, and the market was mainly sorted out in a small way. In the last week of the month, the spot supply in the North was lower than expected, and the supply side boosted the market to move higher. The follow-up to the real single price and high price in the downstream was limited, but the market still rose significantly under the guidance of the supplier price. At present, the spot supply of butadiene is tight in the short term, and the news that the operating rate is declining is positive. However, with the downstream synthetic rubber market limited, demand drag, butadiene unilateral pull up resistance may increase, there is no lack of weakness in the middle and late period. Butadiene market performance may be strong in the short term. It is suggested that attention should be paid to whether the information of external devices can bring substantial good support to the shipping market;

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in November, the ABS market rose slightly, and the spot prices of various brands recovered. Cost side of the upstream three materials this month to actively adjust, there is some support for the cost side. The downstream factories have limited improvement in price inquiry, general gas purchase, and continuation of the strategy of just in need replenishment. Merchants’ mentality is stable for the time being, and the delivery is based on the market. It is expected that ABS in China will rise in a narrow range in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.