According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable in July. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2340 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 2340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 18.98% year on year.

In July, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable, and the equipment of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable. In the near future, the supply of on-site goods was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the inquiry situation was general, and the market price trend was stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is generally in general, and the downstream purchase is on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry is still stopping production. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, Shandong is 2000-2100 yuan / ton, and Hebei is 2400-2700 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose in July. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 1533.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.75%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 1750 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli quoted 1450 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical industry quoted 1580 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods are in general. The price of nitric acid market rose in July, and the price of raw material nitric acid rose, which is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains stable temporarily.

The price of domestic liquid ammonia dropped slightly in July. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3000 yuan / ton, down 2.17% from 3066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market has fallen slightly, the price in Hebei has been lower recently, and the large factories are shipping normally. The quotation is 2800-3000 yuan / ton by the end of the month. The market price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is lower, and some downstream units have been temporarily overhauled recently. The liquid ammonia in Shandong gradually accumulates and the supply continues to increase, leading to certain supply pressure for enterprises. In addition, the downstream rigid procurement is the main factor, and the seasonal off-season support for the market is insufficient. The superimposed impact on the price is obvious, and the upstream raw material liquid ammonia market price is lower, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in July is temporarily stable.

In recent years, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. However, the market price of raw material ammonium nitrate has a certain supporting role. The analysts of ammonium nitrate in business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later stage may be mainly stable.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of acrylic acid is stable. As of July 28, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7083.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Tuesday (July 21) and decreased by 8.41% compared with June 28, according to the data of business club bulk list. At present, the market of acrylic acid is stable, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / T refined acid, 99.7% content, 2020-07-28

Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, industry standard: common acid; grade: superior product / span > July 24, 2020

Jinan Yuanxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Jinan plawa Chemical Co., Ltd. 7000 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: July 24, 2020

Upstream propylene, on July 28, most of the propylene market prices in Shandong remained stable. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. On the 28th, the market turnover was between 6620 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 6650 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, the shipment is flat, the crude oil price is fluctuated slightly, the overall downstream market operating rate is fair, and PP futures market is obviously up. At present, most of the propylene market prices are still near the lower limit of the oscillation range. With the coming of the downstream replenishment cycle, the market atmosphere is improved and the purchasing enthusiasm is slightly increased. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will start to recover in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that most of the raw material propylene market prices are stable, the cost pressure still exists, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable and wait-and-see operation. The specific trend needs more attention to the upstream and downstream information guidance.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on July 27 was 14590 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.48% compared with the average market price of 14376.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (July 1), 0.25% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) of 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 29.84%.

In July, the price of aluminum ingot once jumped to 15343.33 yuan / ton, the peak value of the year (July 13), and then the price continued to fall. On July 17, the price of aluminum ingot fell to 14380 yuan / ton. Recently, it stopped falling and stabilized and rose slightly.

Supply and demand booming, social inventory continued to move down

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June 2020, China’s original aluminum output was 17.889 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; the output of aluminum products was 26.458 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to move down, from a high level of 1.67 million tons to a level of less than 800 thousand tons.

In the second half of the year, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places is expected to be relatively large. According to statistics, the newly added equipment capacity in the above areas will be about 3 million tons in 2020, and the market supply pressure will increase. On the demand side, consumption scenarios such as real estate industry, automobile consumption, cable and other consumption scenarios are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. With the continuous promotion of domestic internal circulation, aluminum consumption is strong 。

Future forecast

At present, the price of electrolytic aluminum has basically stabilized, and it is expected that the maintenance of stability will be stronger in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on July 23, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6487.5 yuan / ton, up 3.8% compared with the beginning of the month, 2.98% higher than that of the previous month, and 3.64% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the PVC market first rose rapidly, all the way up, and then began to moderate callback after the middle of the year. The stronger futures in this month led to a strong rise in the spot market. However, under the condition of insufficient follow-up at the lower demand side and no significant change in fundamentals, the continuous rise lacks support. After a continuous increase of 5.36% in the first ten days of July, it is normal for the PVC market to enter into a rational callback stage, but the range of adjustment is not large, and the manufacturers’ attitude of supporting prices remains unchanged. Recently, the spot market of PVC has stabilized, and the rainy weather in the South has restrained some demand. Therefore, the market trading is relatively flat. Some manufacturers sell goods at a profit, and most of the downstream companies supply goods on demand. Due to the tight supply of goods in some areas, the pre-sale is good, and the operators have a calm and wait-and-see attitude. At present, the demand side support is still in place, and the social inventory is also continuing to be removed. In addition, there are good supports such as maintenance by manufacturers, tight local supply and rising costs. It is not easy to be too pessimistic for a short-term rational callback.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 23, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 type calcium carbide was around 6350-6650 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6500-6600 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 6420-6500 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6520-6600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 6620-6680 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease in quotations.

In terms of futures, the V2009 contract opened at 6545 on Thursday, with the highest price of 6630, the lowest price of 6520 and the closing price of 6540, down 55 or 0.83%. The trading volume was 164000 hands, an increase of 41000 hands. The position was 162000, decreased by 2440.

In terms of demand, July is in the off-season of consumption, and the downstream enterprises are generally in general. In addition, in the rainy season in the south, the downstream enterprises’ operating rate has declined. They do not stock up a large number of PVC products which continue to go up. Their enthusiasm is not high. They mainly focus on just needed procurement, and a small amount of replenishment. The start-up of enterprises such as pipes and profiles is at a medium level. The demand of medical industry is good, and other product industries still perform poorly. Overall, PVC market demand has fallen, but the support is still in, only the strength is weakened.

Statistical data show that from January to June, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC reached 10.051 million tons, which was 0.55% lower than that of 10.1065 million tons in the same period of 2019. The average monthly apparent consumption was about 1.6752 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year.

In terms of supply, there were not many maintenance and repair enterprises in July, and the early maintenance enterprises had resumed work, the output was increased, and the market supply pressure was not great. The supply of goods in South China was still tight, and there was no pressure on sales. Most manufacturers were pre-sale orders, and their confidence in supporting prices was enhanced. With the arrival of imported goods in the later period, maintenance enterprises resume production, increase production capacity, and put in new production capacity, the supply is increasingly abundant.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in June 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.631 million tons, up 2% compared with the same period last year; from January to June 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 9.688 million tons, down 3.2% compared with the same period last year.

Crude oil: on July 22, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.90/barrel, down $0.02. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $44.29/barrel, down $0.03. Oil prices remained almost unchanged on Wednesday, after data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and Wednesday’s EIA data also showed an unexpected increase in crude and distillate stocks. In addition, tensions between China and the United States have risen.

Ethylene, the overall trend of ethylene is rising slightly in the near future. As of July 22, CFR closed at $795-805 per ton in Northeast Asia and $700-710 in South East Asia. The market price of ethylene in Europe is FD, northwest Europe closed at 754-764 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 695-703 US dollars / ton. The price is 335-353 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the recent market situation of ethylene in Europe and America is mainly stable and rising, the demand of the whole ethylene market is fair, the trading atmosphere is general, and the increase is small. Oil prices continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at $40, and the market was in a state of anxiety. The implementation rate of production reduction in many countries exceeded 100%. This is the supply and demand side of the Lido bottom crude oil market. The formation cost of ethylene is supported, and the ethylene price is currently at a low level, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will mainly rise next.

Calcium carbide, in late July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. As of the 23rd, the main calcium carbide manufacturer’s factory quotation was 2530 yuan / ton, up slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide. Although the downstream PVC market has declined, the decline is limited. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, and the calcium carbide production capacity is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is relatively tight. The later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late July.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the current PVC futures fluctuate and fall, and the spot market fluctuates slightly. Some enterprises make profits to ship goods, and the transaction atmosphere turns weak. Although the demand in the off-season is not high, the support is still there, and the short-term maintenance is still good. It is expected that the trend of PVC will fluctuate slightly, and it is possible to continue to callback. It is also necessary to pay attention to the futures trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable after rising this week, with a slight decline over the weekend, with the weekly low price of 6785 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6870 yuan / ton at the weekend, and 6876 yuan / ton on Wednesday and Thursday, with a weekly increase of 1.25% and a weekly amplitude of 1.34%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price dropped by about 250 yuan / ton. From the 12th to the 16th, the price dropped by 150-200 yuan / ton. Since the third round of rise on 18th, the price has risen about 150 yuan / ton. In recent days, most of the prices are stable. The market transaction is between 6800 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6800-6850 yuan / ton. Now propylene manufacturers shipping general, inventory pressure is not big.

On July 23, crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on propylene.

Recently, PP futures market was weak, spot price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.68%, which may have a little negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market this week to maintain stability, the impact on propylene is not big.

Propylene oxide market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 3.64%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin remained stable this week, and fell by 1.36% at the end of the week, which had a slightly negative impact on propylene.

The domestic n-butanol price remained stable in the first half of this week, and rose in the second half, with a weekly increase of 2.10%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

Octanol market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 2.12%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market showed a steady downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 2.23%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

Phenol in East China rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 1.79%.

East China acetone has a slight decline this week, with a weekly decline of 3.54%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: Generally speaking, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, but the shipment is general, the crude oil price is slightly increased, the overall downstream market operating rate is fair, the PP market is relatively calm, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading is stable. At present, most of the propylene market prices are still in the upper limit of the oscillation range, so it is expected that propylene prices will generally decline in the near future.