1. Nickel spot trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price dropped sharply again on the 4th, with a quotation of 108300 yuan / ton, down 3.04% compared with the previous trading day, and 3000 yuan / ton per day, down 26.57% compared with the highest price of 147483.33 yuan / ton on September 3 of this year, nearly 30%, a new low since July 17. On July 4, 2002 contract of Shanghai nickel futures reached a minimum of 103360 yuan / ton, a new low since July 10, with a decline of more than 3%. The market has basically digested the negative sentiment of the ban on mining, and the downstream consumption is weak, so the nickel price fluctuates and falls all the way.

Indonesia announces a new round of tax relief

President jokowi of Indonesia issued government regulation No. 78 of 2019 on December 2. The latest regulation is about the preferential conditions of income tax for investment in specific industries or regions, including nickel ore business. The new regulation indicates that only enterprises meeting the conditions can enjoy the preferential policies. The conditions for accepting the preferential policies are subject to the value of assets invested by enterprises, including the amount of net income from tangible assets such as land Get a 30% tax cut, and share 5% of the tax cut every six years. Recently, the European Union complained to the WTO that Indonesia banned the export of nickel ore, which became the focus of the nickel market. Before that, a number of Indonesian officials still advocated to stop the export of nickel ore, and they need to continue to pay attention to the fermentation of the event. For example, if the European Union wins the lawsuit, Indonesia’s resumption of nickel ore export may cause another huge market.

Indonesia’s ban on mining is good for consumption

Due to the continuous disturbance of the ore end, the nickel price began to rise from July, “Indonesia’s early implementation of the ban on mining policy” has become more realistic, pushing the nickel price to a new high since September 2014. However, the policy of early ban on mining has been put into effect, and the nickel price has fallen from a high in September. At the beginning of November, the Indonesian government suspended the delivery of nickel ore due to the investigation of nickel miners who violated the export regulations, and seven nickel export companies were examined for suspected violation of regulations No. 11 / 2019 of the Ministry of energy and mineral resources. However, the review results show that Indonesia will resume normal export of nickel ore below 1.7% grade before 2020 (but the ban on nickel ore in 2020 will still take effect). This led to a loosening of the expectation of strict ore ban, further accelerating the decline of nickel price.

Stainless steel and lithium battery are two driving forces of nickel price demand

Public data shows that in 2019, China’s primary nickel consumption is expected to reach 1.307 million tons, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year. In terms of consumption structure, the consumption of stainless steel primary nickel accounts for 84.7%, electroplating 4.6%, battery 4.6%, and stainless steel still dominates nickel consumption. It is expected that China’s primary nickel consumption will reach 1.365 million tons in 2020, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. From the perspective of global primary nickel consumption, stainless steel dominates nickel consumption and lithium battery nickel consumption grows fastest. It is estimated that by 2025, stainless steel accounts for 67% of nickel consumption and battery industry accounts for 17%; by 2030, stainless steel accounts for 63% and battery accounts for 22%.

Downstream stainless steel drags nickel price

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 4, the daily average price of 304 / 2B stainless steel plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 13683.33 yuan / ton (including tax), which was 0.12% lower than the 13700 yuan / ton (including tax) of the previous trading day. Stainless steel has fallen steadily since October. In the first three quarters of this year, the domestic stainless steel output remained high, and the steel factory warehouse and social inventory climbed to a historical high. Therefore, the pressure of removing stainless steel warehouse at the end of this year continues to affect the market. After entering November, the production reduction of domestic mainstream steel plants has been implemented in succession. The price of stainless steel has fallen, which is bad for the demand of primary nickel, which also has a certain drag on the price of nickel. December is the off-season of traditional consumption of stainless steel. After routine maintenance of steel enterprises, stainless steel may enter into the situation of supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, most of the steel mills in China continued to reduce the factory price.

New energy nickel demand hit

In October, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 85000, down 34.76% year on year. The negative impact of the decline of new energy subsidies is gradually obvious. Since July, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production in China has changed from positive to negative. By 2020, subsidies in the field of new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn, severely hitting the market’s optimistic expectation of nickel demand in the field of new energy.

Bad news gathered, nickel prices fell continuously

To sum up, Liu Meili, nickel analyst of the business association, believes that with the favorable consumption of Indonesia’s ban on mining, the high nickel price has fallen, and the weak downstream demand, the high nickel price is difficult to support. In the near future, the market focuses on the EU’s complaint against Indonesia’s ban on mining at the WTO meeting. If the EU wins the lawsuit, that is, Indonesia will resume nickel mining in 2020 under the background of the local nickel iron construction progress being greatly advanced Therefore, in the future, nickel supply may be substantially excessive, which may cause a major blow to nickel prices. It is expected that nickel price will maintain a weak downward trend year ago, but after the Spring Festival, under the influence of the start-up of stainless steel plants, the ban on mining in Indonesia and the small amount of nickel ore shipments in the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel price may have a chance to rebound.

I. price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market weakened in November, with most brand quotations falling. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 6.17% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The decline of caprolactam upstream of PA6 continued, and the price fell 5.1% in the month, and the decline gradually slowed down. The upstream pure benzene market continued to rise and boost, and it was difficult to find low-cost sources in the market, so the short-term market was strong. At present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers, and the delivery level of enterprises is around 7700-7800 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The trading atmosphere of cyclohexanone market is fair, with a strong focus on high-end products. In addition, the slightly stronger raw materials give some support. The trend of caprolactam was weak, and the support for PA6 cost end was poor. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, the on-site trading is light, the factory traders operate cautiously, and the confidence is not strong. There are few large-scale purchases in the domestic market in the near future. At present, the market confidence is insufficient, the market still has resistance, and the bottom is not present. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will be consolidated at a low level in the later period, and there is a risk of further decline; the upstream caprolactam will weaken, and the support for PA6 will be weakened. Affected by this negative, domestic PA6 spot prices mostly fell. In addition, at present, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient. At present, the domestic PA6 production and trade e-commerce companies offer low-level operation.

3. Future forecast:

In November, the domestic PA6 market weakened and spot prices fell, according to business analysts. Upstream caprolactam continued to decline, poor support for PA6 cost end. Downstream factories just need replenishment operation, the demand is flat and the list is light. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be weak in the near future.

According to the price trend chart of fluorite, the price trend of fluorite is clearly rising. According to statistics, the average price of fluorite in China as of December 2 is 2883.33 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite in China is slightly rising. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2800-3000 yuan /The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2800-3000 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased slightly. First, the national environmental protection inspection shows that the operation rate of fluorite is average. Some domestic mines and flotation units have been shut down, which has reduced the spot supply of fluorite in the site. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped production. Some goods holding businesses still have a strong price intention, and the price of fluorite in China has increased slightly. Second, as the temperature drops, the northern fluorite manufacturers are gradually restricted, the domestic supply of fluorite is declining, the price of fluorite in the site is supported to a certain extent, and the price of fluorite is rising. Third, the price of hydrofluoric acid and the market of refrigerants in the lower reaches have improved recently, which has a certain positive impact on the domestic fluorite market. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry has increased, and it is expected that fluorite prices will continue to rise in the later period.

The upstream and downstream market is general, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise.

As of the 2nd day, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 10500 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to rise. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian is 9500-10500 yuan / ton, in Shandong is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi is 9500-10500 yuan / ton, in Inner Mongolia is 9500-10500 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is positive Often, the market price rises slightly.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is about 60%. The enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is normal at present. In the near future, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China continues to rise due to the price rise in the downstream market and the price rise in the upstream fluorite market. However, some manufacturers report that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still in deficit. In a comprehensive view, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China has improved Continue to rise. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has slightly increased. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the North has gradually declined. It is expected that hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period Market prices may continue to rise.

I. price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the quotation of Sinopec orthobenzene contract is stable this week, and the market of orthobenzene is stable. As of November 29, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of 6200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (November 25). The price is 16.22% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis

This week, the price of benzene was volatile and fell. On November 29, the price of benzene in Europe was 860 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton from last week. The external price of ortho benzene fell, the price of imported ortho benzene fell, the market of port ortho benzene fell, the inventory of port was low, the negative pressure on the market of ortho benzene in the future increased, and the positive momentum weakened. Sinopec’s listing price of o-xylene in East China is 6200 yuan / ton, the supply of o-xylene is stable, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream of o-xylene is general, the purchasing enthusiasm of o-xylene is poor, the favorable momentum of the future market of o-xylene is insufficient, and the downward pressure is weakened.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

This week, the price of mixed xylene fell in shock, mixed xylene market was negative, the decline of raw material price was negative for o-benzene market, o-benzene cost was reduced, o-benzene market was more negative and less positive, and the downward pressure of o-benzene market increased the upward momentum.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride remained stable, the market of phthalic anhydride for o-benzene weakened, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, the market of phthalic anhydride was negative, the market of the downstream of o-benzene fell, and the overall market was weaker, and the negative increased. In terms of plasticizers, this week’s weak DOP market fell, after the market downward pressure increased the upward momentum weakened. In the early stage, the market of phthalic anhydride, plasticizer and other downstream products recovered, which brought a certain upward momentum to the market of orthobenzene. However, this week, the market of downstream products weakened, the industry chain weakened, the bad news increased, the orthobenzene advantage weakened, and the downward pressure of the future market of orthobenzene increased, and the upward momentum weakened.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of o-xylene data of business association, the price of o-xylene raw materials mixed with xylene fell sharply this week, the cost of o-benzene fell, and the rising power of o-benzene market weakened; on the demand side, the market of o-phthalic anhydride fluctuated and remained stable this week, but the falling market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride was bad for o-phthalic anhydride, which affected the recovery of o-benzene market, the market of plasticizer slightly fell, and the downstream market of o-benzene In terms of external market, the price of external market of orthobenzene fell sharply this week, and the port inventory rose, which was negative for domestic orthobenzene market. To sum up, this week’s o-xylene market is more bearish and less favorable, and the upward momentum is weakened and the downward pressure is increased. The earlier recovery of o-xylene industry chain market has a certain upward momentum accumulation. Although the industry chain market is negative this week, it is not enough to change the stable trend of o-xylene, and it is expected that the future o-xylene market will be weak and stable.

The future market should focus on: the cost of o-benzene, the price trend of downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer. Attention can be paid to: the external plate of o-benzene.

On November 27, the rare earth index was 336, the same as yesterday, 66.40% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.99% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 360000 yuan / ton, 2035000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 500 yuan / ton to 284500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1630000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 335000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 500 yuan / ton to 286500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 360000 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1620000 yuan / ton.

The price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market rose, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth improved, and the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounded and rose. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the notice on the total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 were 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively. The total control index of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) mining in China is 105000 tons, including 78150 tons of main mining index and 26850 tons of comprehensive utilization index. In addition, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts in strict inspection, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. The supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of the business club expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection will not be reduced in China. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level. However, in the near future, the national rare earth export will get good support, and the rare earth market is expected to rise slightly.