1. Trade name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (November 27, 2019): 13966.67 yuan / ton

3. Analysis points:

Supply side: the new capacity is relatively centralized. In November, the newly increased production capacity mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia Xinhengfeng, Chuangyuan metal, Guangxi baikuang, Guangyuan Linfeng and Yunnan Shenhuo, etc., all of which have started or are about to start the new production capacity. In terms of resumption of production, the 500000 ton production capacity shut down by Xinjiang Xinxin for some reason was resumed by power on November 15 and completed by the end of December. Guangxi Investment Group Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. announced to withdraw the capacity of 200000 tons of electrolytic aluminum (336 240kA electrolytic cells) and replace it with Guangxi Huasheng electrolytic aluminum project.

Consumer end: the domestic performance is relatively flat, the aluminum export performance is poor, and the fundamentals are weak as a whole.

4. Future forecast:

The start of heating season will affect the production of electrolytic aluminum to a certain extent. At present, the aluminum ingot Market is relatively stable, and it is expected to run mainly in the first line of 14000 shocks in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on November 26, the average ex factory price of domestic grade 52 chlorinated paraffin was 5066 yuan / ton, and the price per day fell by 2.56%. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on November 26 is 75.43, down 1.99 points from yesterday, down 31.07% from the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and up 18.14% from the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4800-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the US China trade consultation has released positive signals, with international crude oil rising slightly, and the aftermarket is mainly volatile. The market price of liquid wax is stable and the manufacturer has a strong wait-and-see attitude. The liquid chlorine market is difficult to rise, the purchasing power of downstream is weak, the prices of some manufacturers are lowered, and most prices are stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin from business association believe that at present, the domestic chlorinated paraffin market is weak, and there is no good support. The price of raw materials is low. Most downstream enterprises need to purchase, and some enterprises adjust slightly. The overall market is not optimistic. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will rise difficultly in the later period, and the weak consolidation will continue.

I. price trend

The TDI commodity index on November 25 was 61.38, down 1.23 points from yesterday, 75.25% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 2.01% higher than 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the trend of TDI price in East China market was reduced narrowly on the 25th, and the average price of TDI in East China market was 11600 yuan / ton, down 1.97%. TDI market in East China is weak, the atmosphere in the market remains light, the operation is sluggish, the supply side information is not clear temporarily, all parties pay attention to the factory information, the overall offer of the industry is stable and wait-and-see, a single negotiation, negotiation of shipment is the main thing. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11300-11500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on the previous trading day, the listing price of toluene of Sinopec’s enterprises was flat today. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises was raised today, about 5700 yuan / ton. The quotation of traders in East China was stable, about 5750 yuan / ton. In terms of nitric acid, the price trend in East China is stable at present, and the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to be stable. Nitric acid market demand is still weak, the market is weak and stable, and weak consolidation is expected in the later stage.

Industry: last week, the domestic TDI market was weak and volatile. There was a lot of bad news from the suppliers. They continued to be willing to ship. Some factories abandoned the price and guaranteed the quantity. The overall market mentality was frustrated. They continued to report a low profit and delivered the goods. The focus of the delivery and investment moved down slightly. The downstream psychology was still strong. Only a small amount of follow-up was needed. The overall mentality of the operators was pessimistic. It is expected that the domestic TDI market will be weak and volatile this week. They will pay attention to the information from the suppliers 。

III. price forecast

TDI analysts of business club think that TDI market is waiting to be sorted out, the supply side information is not clear for the moment, and the downstream follow-up is still sluggish. It is expected that this week TDI market is weak to be sorted out, and pay attention to the factory information side guidance.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1783.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1788.33 yuan / ton, up or down 0.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market of sodium pyrosulfite is still depressed this week. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1900 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1800 yuan / ton. The production of enterprises is stable, and the inventory is relatively sufficient. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: the upstream soda ash price continued to run at the bottom, the sulfur price fell again by 5.42% this week, the processing raw material cost continued to be weak, the overall procurement of downstream trade subjects was cautious, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite was under pressure.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that raw material cost continues to be weak, the main body of trade purchases cautiously, and the market demand continues to be weak. In the short term, the overall price of pyrosulfite will continue to move forward at the bottom.

Acetone: since November, the acetone market has once again entered the upward channel, with tight supply pushing up and soaring all the way. Taking the quotation of East China market as an example, according to the monitoring of business agency, the quotation of East China market at the end of October was 4200 yuan / ton, up 33.3% to 5600 yuan / ton so far; the figure below shows the quotation trend of acetone factory in East China in the past month:

The main reason for the sharp increase in acetone is the shortage of goods. At present, the port inventory is still at a low level. Although there are a small amount of goods in the early stage, most of them are booked in advance and digested in advance after entering the circulation market. In addition, the liquid level of mainstream petrochemical enterprises is low. In November, the Shiyou plant was shut down for one week, and the whole factory in China is also under construction, which makes the supply of spot resources in the market tense and large The attitude of the customers is positive, the offer is firm and powerful, the inquiry and stock up of the intermediate traders are also increased, and the overall market is bullish. From the cost point of view, pure benzene and propylene are relatively stable and weak consolidation in the near future, with little support for acetone. Thus, the profit space of acetone is relatively high, but the price of phenol products synchronized with phenol ketone unit is not optimistic in the near future, so the profit of phenol ketone manufacturers is reduced.

Isopropanol: since November, the market of isopropanol has been affected by the sharp rise of raw material acetone, which is on the rise. At present, the isopropanol manufacturers do not report the closing price. The industry is more cautious and wait-and-see. The traders hold limited goods and are reluctant to sell. The market of isopropanol is constantly reaching a new high, and the market of raw material acetone is rising day by day, which makes it difficult for downstream enterprises to make an offer. According to the cost analysis, the acetone market in East China is 5600 yuan / ton, and the isopropanol market in Jiangsu Province is 7000 yuan / ton. The profit of isopropanol is lower than that at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the market offer in East China in early November was 5750 yuan / ton, up 18% to 6750 yuan / ton so far;