Cost increased, nickel price slightly increased by 1.04%

I. trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on December 11, the spot nickel price increased slightly, with the quotation of 109900 yuan / ton, up 1.04% compared with the previous day, up 22.78% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 18.36% year on year. Shanghai nickel started trading at 104710 yuan, then continued to rise, closing at 107990 yuan, up 2.69%.

II. Market analysis

According to a copy of a new government regulation, Indonesia will raise the royalty tax on nickel ore sales from 5% to 10%, effective from December 25, including the royalty tax on sales of nickel pig iron. Indonesia’s increase in the right to sell and use nickel ore will lead to a rise in costs, with which nickel prices will rise. Basically, Indonesia’s ban of mining on January 1, 2020 ahead of schedule will lead to a domestic nickel gap next year, and the limited increase of nickel supply in the Philippines will support nickel. The price of downstream stainless steel is basically stable and the inventory is high, but the probability of large-scale production reduction driven by profit is small.

III. future prospects

Future forecast: the continued decline of the US dollar boosted the metal trend, Indonesia raised nickel ore sales and use right tax to boost nickel price, while the downstream stainless steel is not warm and not hot, and it is expected that the short-term nickel shock is strong.