1、 Price trend
As of September 23rd, the price of high-performance power type lithium iron phosphate is 52166 yuan/ton, with current transaction prices ranging from 52200 to 55500 yuan/ton for power type lithium iron phosphate and 51800 to 53000 yuan/ton for energy storage type lithium iron phosphate; The benchmark price fell from 56700 yuan/ton in early September to 52000 yuan/ton, with two consecutive weekly declines. Looking at the longer period, the average price of power type in the third quarter of 2025 was only 35771 yuan/ton and energy storage type was 29000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter of 2026, it surged to 58178 yuan/ton for power type and 57016 yuan/ton for energy storage type, with increases of 63% and 97% respectively; The highest point of the year was in June, with the power type reaching 67000 yuan/ton at one point.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of cost, the cost of lithium iron phosphate is composed of lithium carbonate (60% -65%) and iron phosphate processing fees (30% -35%). For every 10000 yuan/ton increase in lithium carbonate, the cost of the positive electrode increases by about 2300-2500 yuan/ton. Under the pricing model of “raw material cost+fixed processing fee”, long-term agreements negotiate on a monthly basis, and there is a delay in the daily rise and fall of lithium prices to the finished product end. Therefore, there has been a differentiation in recent times, with lithium carbonate rebounding by 3.8% in a single day and lithium iron quotations weakening in the opposite direction.
Lithium salt end: On September 22, battery grade lithium carbonate was in stock at 129800 to 139000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 134300 yuan/ton. Futures main LC2701 closed at 134500 yuan/ton, up 2.61%, and continued to decline before stopping. In mid May, it reached a high of 209800 yuan/ton and fell to a low of 128080 yuan/ton on September 11, with a pullback of more than 40%. Since September, spot prices have fallen by more than 20%.
In terms of demand: Power end: In August 2026, domestic power batteries will be installed at 79.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, including 67.6 GWh of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 85.6%, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%; From January to August, a total of 489.1 GWh of vehicles were loaded, with 402.7 GWh of lithium iron, accounting for 82.3%, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%.
The market share trend is very stable: 74.4% in 2024 → 81.2% in 2025 → 82.3% from January to August 2026. There has been no sustained reverse decline in any quarter for the past three years. The 11.0GWh of Sanyuan, owned by Li Ning De Times, accounts for 66.8% and has retreated to long range, high-end models, and low-temperature scenarios.
The energy storage end is the real engine: In August, the sales volume of energy storage batteries was 76.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 114.3% and a month on month increase of 36.0%, accounting for 34.2% of the total sales volume. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was 450.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 83.8%, with a growth rate more than twice that of power batteries (38.7%). The operating rate of energy storage batteries in August was 87.36%, a month on month increase of 1.28 percentage points. Large battery cells with 500Ah capacity were fully mass-produced (Ningde Times 587Ah, Yiwei 628Ah, Guoxuan 588Ah), all centered around the iron lithium system, leaving almost no room for ternary space.
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