In September 2026, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market experienced a severe fluctuation of “sharp rise and fall”. In the first half of September, driven by the strong rise of raw material epoxy propane, the price of propylene glycol quickly rose. In the second half of the month, the market quickly fell back with the decline of epoxy propane. As of September 28th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 9600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% from mid month and an increase of 1.77% from the beginning of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost side: Epoxy propane “inverted V” market transmission, supporting the shift from strong to strong
Epoxy propane (PO) is the most essential cost source of propylene glycol. In September, the epoxy propane market experienced a typical “inverted V” trend: at the beginning of the month, it rose steadily under the dual drive of strong cost side price increases and tight supply, but after mid month, the epoxy propane price quickly fell back. The sudden loosening of the cost side directly led to the loss of the most important price support for propylene glycol, causing a rapid decline in the market in the second half of the month.
Supply side: Centralized resumption of maintenance equipment and realization of incremental expectations
The logic of “spot tightness” that supported prices in the early stage reversed in the second half of the month, and the total supply remained loose compared to the first half.
On the demand side: Jinjiu fails, with urgent needs as the main focus
The weekly operating rate of downstream UPR (unsaturated resin) is only about 33%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period, but the absolute operating rate is at a low level; The polyether sector has a stable but slightly loose offer, with manufacturers secretly lowering prices to promote orders, and downstream demand for immediate use and procurement; Antifreeze is still in the off-season; The expectation of stocking up before National Day and Mid Autumn Festival has not been fulfilled, and both traders and downstream are “waiting for a drop to stock up”. Export orders are also temporarily suspended and waiting for a price reduction; The consumption of terminal building materials and coatings is weak, and the acceptance of high priced sources is poor.
Market forecast: Weak pressure, center of gravity may shift slightly downwards
Overall, the short-term propylene glycol market is facing multiple pressures. On the cost side, epoxy propane has entered a downward channel after experiencing a surge, and the center of gravity is expected to continue to slightly shift downwards in October, further weakening cost support. On the supply side, the September maintenance equipment has basically resumed production, and coupled with the expectation of concentrated release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, the pressure of supply increment will continue to exist. On the demand side, downstream stocking efforts are limited before and after the National Day holiday, and the peak season characteristics are likely to continue to be weaker than expected, with rigid procurement remaining the main tone. It is expected that the price center of propylene glycol will further shift downwards in early October, but the potential for a deep decline is limited by the bottom line support of raw material costs.
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