In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, with a wide range of fluctuations, with a monthly amplitude of 11.25%. The market price fluctuated from 13333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1%.
In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed an overall trend of first suppressing and then rising, with a fluctuating upward trend, and the price center of gravity rose overall during the month. At the beginning of the month, the market continued the weak trend at the end of the month, with prices briefly running at a low level. With the concentrated release of multiple positive factors in the middle and late of the month, the market rebounded from the bottom and the increase continued to expand. The core driving force behind this month’s market fluctuations is the phased adjustment of the supply and demand pattern, combined with fluctuations in raw material costs, concentrated installation maintenance, and seasonal recovery of downstream demand. At the same time, changes in market sentiment and trading mentality further amplify the market fluctuations, and overall break away from the previously weak operating pattern.
Cost aspect: In September, the upstream raw material market for butadiene showed a trend of first weak and then strong, which provided temporary support for the butadiene market and became an important auxiliary factor for market fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil and naphtha prices slightly fell, and the overall cost support for chemical raw materials weakened. While compressing the profit margin of the butadiene industry, it also dragged down market bullish sentiment, which was an important incentive for the low market prices at the beginning of the month. After entering the middle of the month, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, and the price of naphtha rebounded in parallel. The upstream raw material cost center steadily shifted upward, providing a solid cost support for the butadiene market, effectively boosting the willingness of on-site traders and production enterprises to raise prices, and helping the market price rebound and rise. At the end of the month, raw material prices tend to stabilize, and there is no significant fluctuation in the cost side. The market situation then enters a high-level consolidation state, and the driving effect of the cost side on the market tends to be flat. Overall, the cost trend this month is highly synchronized with the butadiene market, with periodic cost fluctuations dominating the short-term market rhythm. As of September 28th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $92.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $97.83 per barrel.
Supply side:
The supply side of the butadiene market in September showed a phased characteristic of loose at the beginning of the month, contraction in the middle of the month, and recovery at the end of the month, which was the core factor driving the rise and fall of the entire month’s market. At the beginning of the month, the overall operation of domestic butadiene production facilities was stable, and the industry operating rate remained high. There was sufficient supply of spot goods on the market, and traders had high inventory pressure. The market showed a pattern of oversupply, and companies generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions, resulting in sustained weak price fluctuations at the beginning of the month. The market supply pattern in the middle of the month has undergone a significant change, with multiple main production and cracking units in China entering a period of maintenance and load reduction. Some regional units have temporarily stopped work for maintenance, resulting in a significant decline in the overall operating rate of the industry. The circulation of spot resources in the market continues to tighten, and the tight supply situation has become prominent, forming strong and favorable support, and driving prices to rise rapidly. At the end of the month, the maintenance equipment has gradually resumed production and restarted, and the industry’s operating rate has slightly rebounded. The market supply of goods has gradually increased, and the tense situation has been eased. The favorable situation on the supply side has subsided, resulting in a slowdown in market growth and entering a high-level game stage.
Demand side:
The downstream demand in September showed a seasonal rebound and phased release, providing core demand support for the upward trend of the market. Butadiene is mainly used for downstream synthetic rubber ABS、 At the beginning of the month, industries such as rubber and plastic maintained stable production, while terminal tire and plastic product companies mainly focused on restocking for essential needs. The demand for centralized stocking has not yet started, and market demand follow-up is weak, making it difficult to drive price increases. Coupled with high price resistance, the overall performance of the demand side is flat. With the gradual manifestation of the traditional peak season effect in the middle of the month, downstream industries have steadily rebounded in production, and terminal enterprises have concentrated their pre holiday stocking demand. The activity of essential procurement has greatly increased, and the tight supply of goods in the market continues to be digested. The supply-demand mismatch pattern has further intensified, strongly driving the rebound of butadiene prices. At the end of the month, the downstream stocking pace gradually slowed down. After the concentrated replenishment in the early stage, the inventory of downstream enterprises was replenished, and their acceptance of high priced sources of butadiene decreased. Purchasing tended to be cautious, and they mostly adhered to the mentality of taking goods according to demand. The market transaction pace slowed down, and the marginal support from the demand side weakened, and the market situation stabilized and consolidated accordingly.
Market forecast:
From the perspective of comprehensive costs, supply and demand, and market sentiment, the domestic butadiene market is likely to maintain a high volatility, stable to strong operating pattern in the short term, with limited unilateral upward and downward momentum in the market. On the supply side, the increase in the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage is relatively limited, and the overall short-term market spot supply is still tight, which forms a bottom support for prices; The overall stability of crude oil and naphtha prices on the cost side, with no significant downward risk, continues to support the market trend. From the demand side, there is still some room for downstream pre holiday stocking demand to continue, and the support of terminal rigid demand has not completely subsided. There are still positive factors on the short-term demand side. But at the same time, we need to be vigilant about potential risks in the future. As the equipment continues to resume work, market supply will gradually increase, and downstream stocking demand may gradually decline. The follow-up efforts for essential needs will weaken, and the market supply and demand pattern may change again at that time. There is a possibility of periodic market correction and consolidation. Overall, the future market needs to focus on tracking fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, changes in domestic plant operation, and follow-up on downstream terminal demand.
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