1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of December 19, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4666.67 yuan / ton, and the price range of manufacturers was 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: as of December 19, the domestic DMF market is basically stable, the manufacturer’s quotation is stable, the atmosphere of trade and negotiation is flat, the upstream and downstream remain stagnant, the terminal demand is general, Anyang Jiutian 4800 yuan / ton, Yangzi BASF dmf5200 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Jiangshan chemical dmf5300 yuan / ton, Yanchang Xinghua dmf4700 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinmei daily and monthly dmf4600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream raw materials fell slightly, but the cost is still supported, the mentality of the industry is stable, the downstream power is low, the contract customers are mainly close to the end of the year, and the enthusiasm of raw materials procurement is general.

Industry: on December 18, the chemical industry index was 734, the same as yesterday, down 27.76% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.33% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF is mainly weak and stable, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see,

Price trend:

According to statistics, in 2019, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene dropped sharply. The average price at the beginning of the year was 8500 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year was 6700 yuan / ton, and the annual decline was 21.18%. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest point of domestic PX price appeared in the first ten days of March, the highest price was 9000 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in September, and the lowest price was 6600 yuan / ton. From a comprehensive view of the whole year, The domestic market price of p-xylene is in a low trend, and the price trend of PX market is affected by domestic and foreign factors.

In 2019, China’s total PX production capacity will be 20.365 million tons, and 6.1 million tons of new domestic production capacity will be added. However, the annual operating rate will be about 7.3%, and the total output will be about 15 million tons. However, the total import volume will be up to 14 million tons in 2019. Overall, the external dependence of PX will decline. In 2019, the external dependence will be 48%, and the domestic PX self-sufficiency rate will rise significantly due to the production of new domestic devices, which is 40% higher than that in 2018 Up to 52%, but PX price is also the most important factor influencing the market price of p-xylene in China.

According to the annual domestic market price trend chart and PX external market price trend chart, the PX market price trend can be divided into two stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, when the PX market price trend is rising; the second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of the year, when the PX market price gradually drops.

The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March. The price trend of domestic PX market is gradually rising, and the domestic price is rising from 8500 yuan / ton to 9000 yuan / ton in March. In terms of product supply, the domestic PX operation rate is more than 80%, the domestic units are normally started, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is up 5.3%. The external price of PX rose from $1000 / T CFR Taiwan by $100 / T to $1100 / T CFR Taiwan. The external price rise is a major support for the domestic p-xylene market, and the domestic p-xylene market price rose. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the price of crude oil market in the first stage rose sharply, from $45 / barrel at the beginning of the year to $60 / barrel. The sharp rise of crude oil price brought favorable cost support to the domestic market of p-xylene, and the price trend of domestic market of p-xylene rose. The price trend of the downstream PTA market slightly increased, and the PTA market price increased by 8%. In addition, the first quarter is the stock stage of the textile industry, the downstream textile industry has a positive stock, and the demand for the upstream has increased. The domestic PTA operation rate has gradually increased, with the PTA operation rate around 80%, polyester operation rate around 80%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile operation rate around 75%. The higher operation level of downstream PTA Market and polyester industry is a good support for PX market price, and PX market price has increased.

The second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of April. The PX market price gradually declines. The domestic market price drops sharply from 9000 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25.5%. The sharp decline of the domestic market price of p-xylene is mainly due to the sharp increase of domestic supply, the lack of obvious improvement of downstream demand, and the continuous decline of the domestic price of p-xylene. In the second stage, the domestic PX operation rate is less than 70%, a 800000 ton production line is started for Tenglong aromatics plant, 600000 tons of new capacity for Hongrun chemical industry, 1 million tons of new capacity for Hainan refining and chemical industry, 4.5 million tons of new capacity for Hengli petrochemical industry, 2.25 million tons of new capacity for operation, normal operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant, stable operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant, full load operation of Qingdao Lidong plant, Qilu petrochemical industry The operation of the unit is normal, and the start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The supply of p-xylene in China has increased significantly, and the market price of p-xylene in China has continued to decline. According to the overall capacity of Asia, PX capacity is in the stage of supply exceeding demand, and the market price of PX keeps falling. During this period, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a low level, and the WTI crude oil price has been hovering around 50-60 US dollars / barrel. The international crude oil price fluctuation situation has limited support for the price cost of PX market, and the PX price keeps falling. The external price of PX has been continuously reduced under the influence of crude oil price. The external price of PX has declined from 1100 US dollars / ton to 800 US dollars / ton CFR in Taiwan. The external price of PX has been significantly reduced by 300 US dollars / ton. The external price has a certain guiding effect on the domestic market of p-xylene. The external price is still highly dependent on the external market of p-xylene. The external price decline is a major negative impact on the domestic market of PX. In addition, the price of PTA Market in the lower reaches has declined significantly. The price of PTA Market in China has declined from 6600 yuan / ton to 5000 yuan / ton, with a decline rate of 26%. The operating rate has also increased to some extent. The operating rate of PTA is about 90%, polyester is about 90%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile is about 75%. The lower market in the lower reaches has a certain negative impact on the PX market in the upper reaches, which is affected by China’s continuous decline Under the influence of domestic and foreign negative factors, the domestic market price of p-xylene continues to decline.

From the perspective of PX products in 2019, the total capacity of PX in China is 20.365 million tons, with 6.1 million tons of new capacity in China and 1.5 million tons of new capacity in overseas projects. In November, the products of overseas projects will be delivered to China. The statistics of new capacity are as follows:

It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity has increased substantially and domestic supply has increased. PX annual operating rate is about 7.30%, annual output is expected to be about 15 million tons, domestic p-xylene spot supply is still insufficient, domestic p-xylene still has a high degree of dependence on foreign countries, which makes domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. Statistics on the start-up of various domestic p-xylene units are as follows:

It is clearly shown in the chart that one line of overseas domestic Fuhai innovation plant will be restarted and started in 2019, and the plant has been shut down for three years; Urumqi petrochemical plant will start construction in about 50% of the year due to raw material problems. In 2019, the new production capacity was put into operation in the second half of the year, resulting in a substantial increase in domestic supply, a substantial decrease in the domestic market price of p-xylene, and a significant decline in the profit of PX products in 2019. The profit trend of production process with mixed xylene as raw material is shown in the figure below:

There are two production processes for PX, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2019, there is still profit in PX production with naphtha as raw material, but the profit in PX production with MX as raw material is significantly lower. Before May, the profit was at the level of 200 US dollars / ton. However, with the gradual release of domestic p-xylene production capacity, the profit of PX also declined unilaterally. In the second half of the year, the profit of PX is almost at the level of loss of 50 US dollars / ton. As a whole, in 2019, the production profit of mx-px changes from profit to loss.

Part of PX in China comes from the separation of mixed xylene. Crude oil price and domestic mixed xylene price are also the factors influencing the price trend of domestic market of p-xylene. According to the inspection of business agency, the price trend of crude oil market rose from January to April, but the international crude oil price was in the range of 50-60 USD / barrel since May. Crude oil price fluctuation has limited support for p-xylene Lower prices. According to the xylene trend chart, the market price of mixed xylene in 2019 is significantly higher, with an overall increase of 21.23%. In the first half of the year, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated, but PX still has production profits, but with the sharp increase of mixed xylene price, the production profits of PX are greatly reduced.

97% of PX in China is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2019, it can be seen from the figure above that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite similar, and the market price of PX and PTA in China has declined. However, with the low fluctuation of international crude oil price, the market price of PX and PTA is at a low level. The textile industry is in a weak state in the second half of 2019, and the textile industry is in a weak state in the second half of 2019 The industry market is not optimistic, PTA market price is significantly lower, the continuous decline of downstream market has a certain negative impact on the upstream PX market, and the PX market price is significantly lower in 2019.

Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX business club, believes that the PX market in Asia will continue to be weak in 2020, with overcapacity in Asia, weak price trend in Asia’s PX market becoming more clear, and huge upward pressure. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase greatly. Although there are still new devices put into production in domestic PTA enterprises next year, the demand has increased, but the new PX production capacity is larger, including the 4 million tons / year PX device put into production of Zhejiang Petrochemical, becoming the second largest PX leading enterprise in China. The PX self-sufficiency rate gradually increases, the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced, and the domestic supply and demand will be improved, but the PX in Asia will be integrated The supply of PX has been in excess. Japan, South Korea and other PX exporting countries are under great pressure. It is very likely that they will sell their profits to China and compete with domestic enterprises for prices. Most of the new PX devices are px-pta-polyester industrial chains, and the profits of the industrial chain have changed from PX to PTA. Even though PX production losses will remain high, PX will remain weak in 2020, with low profits or even losses It will become a normal situation. The domestic market price of p-xylene is difficult to rise. The average price in the domestic market is about 7000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the autumn sales peak season of textiles, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is 8000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, it is expected that the domestic low price will also be about 6000 yuan / ton.

I. price data

This week (12.9-12.13) the price of refined petroleum coke rose slightly. According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1007.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1022.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 15 yuan / ton in the week and down 1.49% in the week.

On December 13, the petroleum coke commodity index was 79.53, unchanged from yesterday, 48.88% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 18.90% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the delivery of refined petroleum coke was stable, and the price of some refineries increased slightly. This week, affected by the heavy fog weather, refinery shipments have been hindered.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States was $59.20/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $59.18/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.03%; Brent crude oil was $64.39/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $64.20/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.30%. The results of OPEC production reduction meeting exceeded the market expectation, which was good for the oil market, EIA inventory data was completely negative, and the international crude oil market was in high volatility. Downstream: the shipment of calcined coke is not good, the enterprises mainly clear inventory, the market performance of electrolytic aluminum is average, the price of graphite electrode is stable, and the policy of limiting production and production in heating season is implemented in November. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of December 13 is 14023.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are petroleum coke (1.49%), fuel oil (0.66%) and liquefied gas (0.59%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are MTBE (- 3.90%), LNG (- 3.03%) and methanol (- 1.51%). This week’s average was – 0.52%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the market price of Petroleum Coke will rise slightly this week, mainly due to the increase of downstream inquiry, the reduction of refinery inventory pressure, and the reduction of sulfur content in some refineries. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will rise slightly in the near future, and the price range may be around 900-1100 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong was 6966.67 yuan / ton, down 17.55% year on year. Overall, this week’s octanol market was temporarily stable, with the octanol commodity index at 51.23 on December 13.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream octanol manufacturers is temporarily stable: hualuhengsheng’s ex factory quotation of octanol this weekend is 7000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 6733.08 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6740.77 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.11%, down 14.89% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory rose slightly this week. The DOP quotation increased from 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.23%, down 17.35% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In the middle of December, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support was general, the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. According to the octanol analysts of the business club, the octanol market in Shandong in mid December may be consolidated at a low level under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

On December 12, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 123.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.23% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 71.72% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: in December, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline, and the price continued to be at a new low, falling more than 20% from the beginning of November. As of December 12, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1133 yuan / ton, down 22.73% from the beginning of November and 10.05% from the beginning of December.

market analysis

Since November, the terminal hexanolenediamine of hydrogen peroxide has been on the bottom, the price has been falling constantly, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer has started normal operation, the market supply is surplus, and the power of hydrogen peroxide rising is insufficient. In December, the price still hasn’t improved, and it has fallen for nearly half a month, with a weekly drop of 50-100 yuan / ton, and some average prices have fallen below 1100 yuan / ton. As of December 12, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong area: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1080 yuan / ton; the price is 40 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of December; 300 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of November.

Hebei Province: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1120 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton lower than that in early December; 180 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 1200 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than that in early December, and 200 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

Hunan Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hunan is 1300 yuan / ton; the price is the same as that in early December; the price is the same as that in early November.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1350 yuan / ton, a decrease of 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of December; a decrease of 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of November.

Industry chain: the price of caprolactam at the hydrogen peroxide terminal was dragged down by the decline of cyclohexanone, and the price continued to fall. In addition, the purchase demand of PA6 manufacturers at the caprolactam terminal was general. The price of caprolactam fell nearly 8% from November to December 12. Hydrogen peroxide itself is a kind of rising and falling product. When the demand is low, the lowest price is about 800 yuan / ton. The performance of caprolactam is poor, the decline of hydrogen peroxide is expanding, the price continues to fall deeply, the decline is far more than that of caprolactam, which has fallen together with hydrogen peroxide.

Outlook for the future

The hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business club thinks: at present, the price of hydrogen peroxide is still around 1100-1200 yuan / ton, and there is still a distance from the lowest 800 yuan / ton. In the off-season of demand, the space for hydrogen peroxide to rise is limited, or it will continue to fall, and the road to the bottom will continue.