I. price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market recovered in November and the spot price in the domestic market rose in a narrow range. As of November 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13050.00 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from the beginning of the month.
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II. Analysis of influencing factors:
Industry chain: ABS upstream, this month styrene market price shock finishing. The domestic supply is in good condition, and the port inventory remains high. In the late ten days, the international crude oil market continued to be positive, and the overall oil price fluctuated upward, giving styrene cost support. The upstream ethylene and pure benzene are slightly consolidated, the downstream PS and EPS prices are stable, the enterprise’s operating rate is good, the factory’s production and sales are stable, and the purchase is on demand. In the near December, arrival styrene will increase, which will bring a certain impact on the domestic styrene market supply. In the short term, styrene supply will increase, but the downstream price is strong, the operation is good, the styrene digestion capacity is good, and the current styrene price acceptance is high. It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the market guidance of the trend of external and bulk futures;
This month, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products was relatively stable, and the supply side remained balanced at the beginning and the middle of the month. Traders were cautious in their quotations, making more trades with lower profits. By the end of the month, there was a decrease in the supply of goods within the site and the supply began to be insufficient. The downstream waiting atmosphere is heavy and the replenishment enthusiasm is general. However, the attitude of the industry is stable, an
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d the acrylonitrile market is up slightly at present;
In November, the market of butadiene was more volatile, and the price of ex factory products was up and down. At the beginning of the month, the sudden shutdown of Lanzhou Petrochemical Plant led to the increase of mutual supply of Fushun and Ningmei. In addition, Fushun Petrochemical also had a short-term shutdown plan. The unexpected news from the supply side boosted the market. However, the downstream demand follow-up is limited, and the market upward resistance is obvious. In addition, the supply of foreign ocean going cargo is abundant and the price is low, which obviously drags the domestic spot market. In the middle and late ten days, with the restart of Ningmei and Huayu units and the export of Fushun Petrochemical products, the increase of spot supply continued to put pressure on the market; however, at the same time, the external market stopped falling and stabilized, bringing support to the mentality of some merchants in East China, and the market was mainly sorted out in a small way. In the last week of the month, the spot supply in the North was lower than expected, and the supply side boosted the market to move higher. The follow-up to the real single price and high price in the downstream was limited, but the market still rose significantly under the guidance of the supplier price. At present, the spot supply of butadiene is tight in the short term, and the news that the operating rate is declining is positive. However, with the downstream synthetic rubber market limited, demand drag, butadiene unilateral pull up resistance may increase, there is no lack of weakness in the middle and late period. Butadiene market performance may be strong in the short term. It is suggested that attention should be paid to whether the information of external devices can bring substantial good support to the shipping market;
3. Future forecast:
Business analysts think: in November, the ABS market rose slightly, and the spot prices of various brands recovered. Cost side of the upstream three materials this month to actively adjust, there is some support for the cost side. The downstream factories have limited improvement in price inquiry, general gas purchase, and continuation of the strategy of just in need replenishment. Merchants’ mentality is stable for the time being, and the delivery is based on the market. It is expected that ABS in China will rise in a narrow range in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.
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