According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of September 30, the average price of domestic 180 CST fuel oil in mainstream market was 3612.50 yuan / ton, down 2.69% from 3712.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On September 30, the fuel oil commodity index was 73.16, down 36.88% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 58.77% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of influencing factors

Fuel stocks increased and prices fell. Domestic fuel oil prices fell in a weak trend this month, with a light turnover. The mainstream price at the end of the month was about 3612 yuan / ton. On September 29, the spot price of Zhoushan port fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was 295 USD / T, which was 8.24% lower than 321.5 USD / T at the beginning of the month. According to data released by the Singapore Enterprise Development Council (ESG), Singapore’s stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, surged by 2.232 million barrels in the week ending September 23, to a five week high of 23.633 million barrels.

The epidemic situation in foreign countries is more serious, the overall demand is weak, the crude oil price is falling, and the cost side is unfavorable to the fuel price. According to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil of the United States was 42.61 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the month and 39.29 US dollars / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly rise and fall of – 7.79%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was 45.28 dollars / barrel, at the end of the month was 41.56 dollars / barrel, with a monthly rise and fall of – 8.22%. On September 25, local time, Stella kyriakidis, EU health commissioner, warned that the epidemic situation in some countries of the EU was worse than that in March, and the epidemic situation in Europe has become very serious again. In the early stage, the OPEC + production reduction agreement was not complete, and the crude oil supply surface pressure was large. US crude oil inventories fell by 831000 barrels to 494.4 million barrels in the week of September 25.

Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the overall market downturn, limited terminal demand, light transactions, coupled with the recent decline in international crude oil prices, affected by the cost and supply-demand relationship, it is expected that the fuel oil market will continue to operate in a weak position in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China on September 30 was 850.00 yuan / ton, which was 7.14% lower than 793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 46.55% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the sulfur market was on the rise as a whole, with obvious support from port cargo holders. The sulfur market continued to rise. Domestic sulfur manufacturers made price adjustments based on the sales situation, and the price trend rose steadily in the month. As of the 30th, the quotations of solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in East China are 860-1060 yuan / ton, 760-900 yuan / ton, 710-800 yuan / ton and 660-720 yuan / ton in North China, 840-850 yuan / ton in Shandong.

At present, the downstream sulfuric acid market is trading well. The shipment of sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is stable, and the inventory of acid enterprises is low. The quotation of sulfuric acid rises slightly, and the double festival is approaching. The manufacturers prepare more goods, and the market after the festival is mainly organized and operated. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, export and domestic demand are stable, enterprises are able to move goods smoothly, and the future market is stable temporarily.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business club, the enthusiasm of downstream factories and traders in the sulfur market is not high, the internal and external markets are lack of substantive information guidance, and the buyers and sellers are mainly on the wait-and-see manner. In addition, the port side has a clear attitude to support the market. It is expected that the sulfur market or consolidation operation will be carried out in the later stage, so as to watch the downstream market trend.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt market fluctuated in September, and the cobalt price rose and fell suddenly. In September, the cobalt price experienced “five rises and four falls”. The cobalt price was adjusted 15 times, and the overall cobalt price fluctuated slightly. It is rare for the cobalt price to adjust so frequently, which can be called the most “turbulent” in history. As of September 29, the cobalt price was 274666.66 yuan / ton, down 1.26% from 278166.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Why does cobalt price change so frequently? What is the future market of cobalt Market?

Domestic production and marketing of new energy vehicles

According to the data of CAAC, in August 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 106000 and 109000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 6.0% and 11.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.7% and 25.8%; from January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 602000 and 596000, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% and 26.4%. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both rose sharply on a month on month basis, and the market of new energy vehicles rose significantly. It is expected that the demand for cobalt in the future will recover, which is good for the cobalt market.

Domestic mobile phone market

According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, in August 2020, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 26.907 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%; from January to August, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 202 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%. The production and sales of mobile phone market fell sharply, and the demand for cobalt Market decreased significantly, which was negative for cobalt market.

Import data of cobalt raw materials

According to the data of Customs website, in August 2020, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 9300 tons of metal tons, with a month on month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. From January to August 2020, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 54500 tons of metal tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year. The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased, the domestic cobalt market supply increased, the domestic cobalt supply exceeded demand, and the market situation of cobalt market was negative.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market experienced the most “turbulent” month in September, and the price of cobalt was adjusted several times. The performance of cobalt market is closely related to the recent performance of both supply and demand sides of cobalt market.

In terms of demand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are up, which is good for the rising demand of cobalt market. At the same time, the sharp decline of mobile phone sales shows that the overall demand of cobalt market is still seriously declining. Although mobile phone sales have picked up, the overall demand of cobalt market is insufficient, and the cobalt market has not sustained rising support. The national reserve is the biggest positive for cobalt Market in September, but the collection and storage did not bring the expected market boost Uncertainty has limited the upside of the cobalt market. In terms of overall demand, the cobalt market is both positive and negative.

In terms of supply, domestic imports of cobalt raw materials increased, and the supply of cobalt market increased. In the case of insufficient demand, the increase in supply led to the oversupply of supply. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the supply risk of cobalt ore in DRC has always been the focus of the market. Recently, there have been many disturbances in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although the turmoil is not enough to have a fatal impact on the political situation, it also increases the supply risk of cobalt Market and cobalt ore supply All kinds of hidden costs of Yingshang increased, and the pressure of rising price of cobalt ore increased. In terms of overall supply, the cobalt market is both positive and negative.

On the whole, in September, the supply and demand sides of the cobalt market were entangled with each other, and the good and bad were mixed. There was no decisive factor in the cobalt market to promote the rise or fall of cobalt price. In the long run, with the recovery of the global economy, the cobalt market is bound to rise. However, the recent performance of the cobalt market shows that it is difficult for the cobalt market to have a decisive force to change the cobalt Market in the short term, and the cobalt market may spend a dull year.

At the beginning of the week, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, while Hebei continued to maintain the steady state last week. The price of Shandong region rose for two consecutive days. At present, whether the market can stabilize still remains to be observed. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong increased by about 200 yuan, with a curve percentage of 1.08%, and the mainstream market quotation was 2850-3100 yuan / ton.

After a short period of decline in the middle of September, the market quotation of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized slightly, and the price at the end of the month has returned to the upward channel again. Before that, the major plants were still in the maintenance period, the liquid ammonia shipment increased significantly, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure gradually increased, and the enterprise’s quotation was mainly based on the corresponding profit margin. Recently, the shipment of liquid ammonia from Shandong manufacturers has slowed down significantly, mainly for self use, and there is a pre holiday stock behavior in the downstream, which has stimulated the continuous upward trend of market price.

In other regions, the big is stable and the small is moving. Hebei has been following the trend of Shandong before. However, although the price in Shandong has risen recently, the shipment volume is not large and the flow between regions is not much. In addition, most of the liquid ammonia plants in Hebei are stable, and the supply of goods is normal and abundant. Therefore, the prices in this region continue to be stable and the prices have not changed greatly. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. The amount of liquid ammonia in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, with the current price of 2950-3100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business agency believes that at the beginning of the week, most of the liquid ammonia Market stabilized. In the whole month, the liquid ammonia market maintained a narrow range adjustment, and the supply and demand fundamentals were balanced. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate before the double festival. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will still maintain the range consolidation in the near future. It is not ruled out that the trend of various regions after the festival or some differentiation will occur, and the market is mainly affected by large factories The impact is obvious. In the later stage, there may still be maintenance of the devices in Shandong area. After the superposition of festivals, the market may need to consume a part of the goods prepared before the festival, and the price may be impacted to a certain extent. On the demand side, the downstream demand is rigid and stable. At present, the downstream fertilizer market is at the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season. The downstream demand may shrink in the later stage, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage. Considering comprehensively, liquid ammonia may be near strong and far weak.

1、 Price trend

This week, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China is temporarily stable, with an offer of 282.50 yuan / ton. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid remained stable this week, with the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on September 18 at 74.34.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is stable temporarily, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 230 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is quoted at 300 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 120 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream silica market is general, and the market price of ammonium chloride gradually drops, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The overall problem of hydrochloric acid delivery is still difficult in the whole week.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, while the downstream silica and ammonium chloride are mainly purchased on demand. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid recent low consolidation.