1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel oil rose and fell mutually this week, with overall stability. The price of domestic gasoline was 4994 yuan / ton, 0.17% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel oil was 5139 yuan / ton, 1.06% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures fell this week, and the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical equipment rose gradually in the near future. The market price of refined oil is weak in action, and the market price of refined oil is stable this week.

Industry chain: on April 9, the OPEC + special meeting came to an end. Its production reduction amount was lower than the market expectation. The market generally didn’t buy the result, and was boosted by the news of production reduction earlier. The market has digested the benefit ahead of time. From the perspective of demand, at present, the global epidemic is still in the stage of rapid spread. Market experts generally believe that it may last for a long time in the later period. Some institutions predict that the decline of crude oil demand in April will exceed 20 million barrels / day, or even 30 million barrels. As of 15:00 on the 10th, WTI crude oil price was at $23.5/barrel, and WTI crude oil futures fell 10.11% this week.

Market: on the demand side, on the gasoline side, during the Qingming holiday, the number of driving trips by residents increased, and the downstream consumption of gasoline was strong, which to some extent supported the wholesale gasoline market. Traders and downstream customers take more goods after the festival. In terms of diesel, engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries continue to provide rigid demand support. After the Qingming Festival, traders and downstream customers replenish more goods, and the overall market turnover is acceptable. However, in the near future, the operating rate of refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 67.18%, up 4.54% month on month, and the international crude oil price fell by more than 10%. This week, the market price of refined oil remained stable.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: the output reduction of OPEC + meeting is not as strong as expected, and the demand for crude oil is expected to fall sharply, so the crude oil market has no power to act, which is subject to the low price of crude oil. It is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable in the near future, with little possibility of rising.

As of April 10, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade purified water formic acid was 2300 yuan / ton, down 2.13%, according to the data of business agency. The overall weakness of formic acid market fell this week.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic industrial grade 85% purified water formic acid market was generally weak and stable, with the overall price down 2.13%. In terms of equipment: the manufacturer’s equipment is basically in normal operation, and the delivery is acceptable. This week, the supply of formic acid market continued to last week, and the enterprise’s inventory is acceptable. In terms of price: this week, the company’s quotation is basically around 2300 yuan / ton, the main factory price of formic acid is about 1850-2400 yuan / ton, and the main dealers’ quotation is 2600-3200 yuan / ton. Last week, due to the supply and demand of some manufacturers and equipment problems, the price was raised. This week, due to the moderation of supply and demand, the price dropped. As of Friday (April 10), Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. has offered 2900 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. 1850 yuan / ton; Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. 4200 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 2000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the price of liquid ammonia, the upstream product of formic acid, has been running steadily in many places, and the terminal has gradually replenished to support the current stable price. The domestic caustic soda market is now down. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the demand for leather and pesticide industries of the downstream products does not increase significantly, and there is not much trading.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of business association, at present, the overall weakness of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market tends to be stable, enterprises generally maintain stability and wait and see, part of the quotation is reduced, the market supply is acceptable, and the downstream demand is deficient. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be consolidated in the short term.

On April 9, the PX commodity index was 34.40, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 66.41% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now)

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 8, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by 11 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 455-457 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 475-477 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX needs to be imported in China. Recently, affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price, the external price of PX declined slightly, and the market price trend of PX was stable temporarily.

As of August 8, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with main contracts at 25.09 yuan / barrel, or $1.46. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the main contract at US $32.84/barrel, or US $0.97. OPEC + member states are discussing plans to reduce production in at least the next three months (may July). Russia’s energy ministry has received an invitation from OPEC to participate in Thursday’s video conference. Both oil producing countries have expressed their willingness to negotiate. At the same time, they have pointed out that the United States should also significantly reduce oil production by 10 to 15 million barrels / day. The rising crude oil price supports the cost of downstream petrochemical products, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price of domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly. As of April 9, the market average price was 3395.96 yuan / ton, and PTA price rebounded slightly in recent two days. Affected by the rise of crude oil price, the price of PTA Market in the downstream rebounded higher. Recently, the industry and trade of Fuhua and BP Zhuhai were restarted, and the domestic PTA plant load increased to 92.27%. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the market is still large. Domestic polyester production fell to 80.45% and weaving industry production rate was 54.85%. The U.S. actively brokered oil price negotiations. The price of oil rose and PTA price rose slightly. At present, the load has returned to a higher level, and the inventory is still high. There are 30-35 days for each polyester warehouse. Affected by the decline of export orders, the inventory and capital pressure of textile enterprises rose, but PTA price rose due to the support of crude oil, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

Recently, the crude oil price has risen, the downstream PTA market price has rebounded, and the downstream demand of the terminal has not improved significantly. The business analysts believe that the PX market price may keep fluctuating.

1、 Price trend

This week’s domestic ethanol market was weak. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5262 yuan / ton, while the weekend domestic ethanol market price was 5212 yuan / ton, down 0.95% in the week. The price fell 4.18% month on month and 2.75% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic alcohol market rose slightly in some regions this week, and most markets maintained weak consolidation. The market in Henan Province is up, the inventory of enterprises is not high, the quotation is rising continuously, and the downstream purchasing situation is general; the market of corn and ethanol in Jilin Province in Northeast China is weak, the edible inventory of large enterprises is general, and the order delivery and transaction are weak; the factory delivery situation in Heilongjiang Province is fair, the price of small factories is not high, and the price of automobile transportation is low; there are many supplies of alcohol delivered to Northeast China in East China, and the downstream needs to be For the weak; the price of ethanol in Shandong Province is stable, the enterprise quotation is stable, and the downstream demand is weak; 95% of the ethanol in Guangdong Province in South China market is not abundant at present, most of the production enterprises are shut down, and the heard export is also slightly increased, the market is slightly increased; at present, only the molasses production enterprises in Guangxi Province are operating in Haiying plant, and other molasses ethanol enterprises are shut down, and the material cost in plateau is low Under the support of Guangxi molasses alcohol market, it temporarily maintained weak and stable consolidation.

Industry chain: corn: the price of corn in China is still mainly rising, with less arrival in North China, and the price of corn continues to rise strongly. As there are few grain sources left at the grass-roots level, traders are optimistic about the future market, and they are generally reluctant to sell. It is expected that there is still some room for growth.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate market fell sharply this week. Due to the cancellation of some export orders of China’s ethyl acetate from April to may in the later period, all parties in the market became more bearish towards the latter period of ethyl acetate. The new single purchase of ethyl acetate was mainly rational, the inventory digestion of suppliers was slow, and the passive competition between suppliers for shipment drove the market transaction down. This week, the raw material acetic acid dropped significantly, giving some room for profit to ethyl acetate. Although the price of some raw material outsourcing enterprises has been near the cost line, but under the inventory pressure and the competitive pressure of mainstream manufacturers, the market as a whole still fell passively. Jiangsu Lianhai parking in the middle of the week is expected to recover in a week. However, the overall spot inventory of the ethyl acetate Market is high. Jiangsu Lianhai parking has no support for the market, and the market continues to be negative in all aspects. If there is no obvious positive support in the short term, the ethyl acetate Market is expected to continue to decline.

3、 Future forecast

The price of raw material corn continues to rise, the production cost of some enterprises increases, and the downstream demand is limited. At present, the starting load of ethyl acetate enterprises is not high, the stock of raw materials is still high, the consumption of raw materials is limited, and the export situation increases or the stock drives the possibility of a wave of market. The price of northeast supply in East China is relatively low, and more northeast supply is consumed, and the production cost of cassava production enterprises is high, but at present Under the devaluation of Thai baht, the FOB price in Thailand is weak, which is good for the East China market; the low inventory price of production enterprises in Henan Province is rising, and the goods are in good condition under the psychology of buying up but not buying down, but it is possible that the goods will go down in the later period after the purchase is finished; the goods delivered from other places in the south market are few at present, but the later part of the goods will arrive at Hong Kong, the supply will increase, and the price will fall 。 Business alcohol analysts predict that the short-term ethanol market will show a regional trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of April 3, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9440 yuan / ton, with a 2.48% month on month drop in price and a 4.53% year-on-year increase.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic BDO market weakness consolidation this week. Crude oil continued to hover at a low level, the global epidemic spread, the terminal demand was limited, and the market downturn transmitted upward, resulting in high inventory in the main downstream of BDO, low starting load, and weak digestion of raw materials. Especially in PBT industry, many factories choose to park or operate with very low load, and many factories need to enter the market to depress prices. In the early stage, the main factories such as Dongyuan and Kaixiang didn’t restart the parking maintenance. Under the guidance of the pricing policy this week, Heci and Shaanxi chemical park maintenance, the overall market load is less than 40%, but the high inventory digestion is slow, and low price import goods hit the market. The game between supply and demand continues, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, and the sales promotion is carried out within a reasonable range.

In terms of devices, this week, hecian will stop for maintenance on March 27; Shaanxi chemical will stop for maintenance on March 27, and it is expected to restart this weekend; Kaixiang will stop for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; MEC’s load is 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device will operate normally, The restart time of other units is to be determined; Dongyuan shut down for maintenance on March 5, and the restart time is not determined; Tunhe phase I is 50%, and phase II is shut down; Ronghe shut down for maintenance; Xinye shut down for catalyst replacement on the evening of March 25; Sinopec load drops to about 50%. The overall market operating rate this week was around 38.9%, down 6.9% from last week. (the domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking).

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the mainstream of this week’s methanol market tends to be stable, some of which are up, and the market negotiation atmosphere is active. The centralized transaction price in Inner Mongolia is 1350-1380 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange. The main factories such as Xinao and Rongxin were closed at the beginning of the week, mainly supplying olefins. The main factories of the south line, Shilin and jinchengtai, were temporarily overhauled, and there was not much available for sale this week. This week, the centralized transaction in Guanzhong region was maintained at 1400-1480 yuan / ton of ex factory cash, Xianyang chemical was shut down for a long time, a single 400000 ton / year methanol plant in Weihua, Shaanxi was shut down for maintenance, and the factory shipment was relatively smooth under the support of low supply and favorable conditions. Baoji’s five quotations rose to 1530-154 yuan / ton in the evergreen week, and the new price shipment was to be observed. At present, it seems that the enthusiasm of the downstream market has increased, and the olefin plants such as China Coal Yulin have the intention to produce methanol outside, and the production enterprises are also in a rising mentality.

Calcium carbide: this week, the overall trend of calcium carbide market is downward. The factory price is down by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream factory price in Wuhai is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. At present, the construction in Northwest China is stable, but some enterprises have problems in stock accumulation, and the trade source and investment environment is light. On the downstream side, the operation rate of domestic calcium carbide PVC fell this week, and some enterprises entered the maintenance stage ahead of time, resulting in the weakening demand for calcium carbide in the market. The downstream waiting trucks began to rise, and the purchase price fell by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the purchase price in Shandong is 2890-3090 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

This week, the overall market will be started to about 40% for parking maintenance of Hemei and short-term parking maintenance of Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd., and the strategy of supporting the market will be continued. However, the terminal demand has not improved in the macro environment, and continues to languish. The load of downstream industry is low. It just needs to enter the market to make up the position, and the price is depressed under the cost pressure. At present, the social inventory is high, but the demand is weak, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, and a reasonable range of narrow margin sales promotion. Short term terminal downstream demand is hard to be optimistic. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will continue to be weak and volatile, specifically focusing on the main downstream construction situation and market mentality change.