Trend analysis
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt market fluctuated in September, and the cobalt price rose and fell suddenly. In September, the cobalt price experienced “five rises and four falls”. The cobalt price was adjusted 15 times, and the overall cobalt price fluctuated slightly. It is rare for the cobalt price to adjust so frequently, which can be called the most “turbulent” in history. As of September 29, the cobalt price was 274666.66 yuan / ton, down 1.26% from 278166.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Why does cobalt price change so frequently? What is the future market of cobalt Market?
Domestic production and marketing of new energy vehicles
According to the data of CAAC, in August 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 106000 and 109000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 6.0% and 11.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.7% and 25.8%; from January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 602000 and 596000, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% and 26.4%. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both rose sharply on a month on month basis, and the market of new energy vehicles rose significantly. It is expected that the demand for cobalt in the future will recover, which is good for the cobalt market.
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Domestic mobile phone market
According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, in August 2020, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 26.907 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%; from January to August, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 202 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%. The production and sales of mobile phone market fell sharply, and the demand for cobalt Market decreased significantly, which was negative for cobalt market.
Import data of cobalt raw materials
According to the data of Customs website, in August 2020, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 9300 tons of metal tons, with a month on month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. From January to August 2020, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 54500 tons of metal tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year. The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased, the domestic cobalt market supply increased, the domestic cobalt supply exceeded demand, and the market situation of cobalt market was negative.
Market Overview
According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market experienced the most “turbulent” month in September, and the price of cobalt was adjusted several times. The performance of cobalt market is closely related to the recent performance of both supply and demand sides of cobalt market.
In terms of demand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are up, which is good for the rising demand of cobalt market. At the same time, the sharp decline of mobile phone sales shows that the overall demand of cobalt market is still seriously declining. Although mobile phone sales have picked up, the overall demand of cobalt market is insufficient, and the cobalt market has not sustained rising support. The national reserve is the biggest positive for cobalt Market in September, but the collection and storage did not bring the expected market boost Uncertainty has limited the upside of the cobalt market. In terms of overall demand, the cobalt market is both positive and negative.
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In terms of supply, domestic imports of cobalt raw materials increased, and the supply of cobalt market increased. In the case of insufficient demand, the increase in supply led to the oversupply of supply. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the supply risk of cobalt ore in DRC has always been the focus of the market. Recently, there have been many disturbances in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although the turmoil is not enough to have a fatal impact on the political situation, it also increases the supply risk of cobalt Market and cobalt ore supply All kinds of hidden costs of Yingshang increased, and the pressure of rising price of cobalt ore increased. In terms of overall supply, the cobalt market is both positive and negative.
On the whole, in September, the supply and demand sides of the cobalt market were entangled with each other, and the good and bad were mixed. There was no decisive factor in the cobalt market to promote the rise or fall of cobalt price. In the long run, with the recovery of the global economy, the cobalt market is bound to rise. However, the recent performance of the cobalt market shows that it is difficult for the cobalt market to have a decisive force to change the cobalt Market in the short term, and the cobalt market may spend a dull year.
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