Looking back on the trend of styrene in October, it is a good move. Affected by the strong demand downstream of the terminal, during the national day, many downstream enterprises shorten the shutdown period and scope, which leads to the non increase and decrease of the stock of styrene main port and production enterprises after the festival. Meanwhile, downstream prices are higher and styrene is pushed back. Under the promotion of good fundamentals, futures market bulls continue to increase positions, and the market of the market and spot market rise resonance.

At present, for styrene cost end, pure benzene market keeps up with styrene market, but the increase is narrow, and the profit of styrene industry has been improved. Crude oil, as the upstream source of styrene, is suppressed, which also compresses the space of styrene price rise to a certain extent, and also lowers the price of pure benzene and ethylene.

From the current international maintenance devices, cosmar has an annual capacity of 575000 tons of parking and maintenance for nearly one month, South Korea SKG has an annual capacity of 45000 tons of units for parking and maintenance, and Singapore shell has an annual capacity of 550000 tons in October for two months. The annual output of Italian, Belgian and Japanese production capacity is about 1795000 tons in October; besides, the annual output of triseo in Germany is 300000 tons The styrene plant is scheduled to be shut down permanently.

It is worth noting that since the late July, domestic production enterprises have export orders, which is a signal of the change of market supply and demand pattern. In recent two years, a large number of new production capacity has been put into operation in China. By october2020, China’s total styrene production capacity has reached 11.665 million tons. The integrated unit has rolled over many non integrated old-fashioned devices in terms of production profit, seizing market share, which leads to the situation of capacity shutdown of foreign old-fashioned devices. In the future, we should continue to observe export data, so as to judge the possibility of changing international trade pattern 。

In this context, the port stock of styrene in China was successively removed from 306000 tons at the end of August to 211000 tons at the end of October. On the one hand, the centralized maintenance equipment in foreign countries led to the reduction of imported goods sources, on the other hand, the production enterprises actively went to the warehouse and pre sold the spot. The existing enterprises were pre sold to December. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises were actively seized goods due to the market supply tension, and both pipes were together Next.

At present, the plant maintenance in China is less, the domestic load is still high, the domestic output changes little in the four seasons, and it is possible to raise negative on the basis of high profit. Tangshan Xuyang 300000 tons styrene plant is scheduled to be put into operation on October 25, and Abel’s 250000 t styrene plant is scheduled to restart at the end of October. However, Shanghai Secco started to stop and repair 650000 tons styrene plant on November 15, which lasted 45 days; Jiangsu Shuangliang planned to stop and repair 210000 tons of styrene plant from November 4 to 5, which lasted 45 days. It is expected that domestic styrene production will be 968000 tons in October, almost unchanged in November at 963000 tons, and the start of construction in December has decreased slightly. However, due to the production days, the output will increase to close to 970000 tons, compared with 8859000 tons domestic supply in the last four months.

Thus, domestic supply is sufficient. According to the current ship report and foreign orders statistics, the supply of real goods in November is still scarce, but the US goods loaded in late October and November have more transactions, and the domestic styrene import volume in December may rebound.

Since this year, the downstream has maintained a high operating rate, especially EPS, which has increased by nearly 50% compared with previous years. On the one hand, the end demand is gradually recovered, on the other hand, styrene prices have been rapidly falling due to the epidemic situation, and the downstream price has not fallen much. Due to the large profit margin, downstream production will be increased and inventory preparation will be started. Since October, downstream supply is tight, especially ABS still has structural supply tension, which pushes up styrene price in reverse.

From the current news, in the EPS industry in the fourth quarter, some of Dongguan’s devices have negative plans; Zhuhai plans to put 300000 tons annually into operation at the end of October; Dalian plans to put into operation in November. In addition, Anhui Jiaxi styrene supporting EPS is expected to drive before the Spring Festival. In the fourth quarter, no new units were put into operation in PS industry, and the shutdown and maintenance of green safety devices led to a decrease of production of 20000-30000 tons compared with the third quarter. Driven by demand, the ABS industry is expected to start to rise again in the fourth quarter, with output expected to rise 18000 tons on a year basis. Overall, demand for styrene will continue to rise in the fourth quarter.

In general, the fundamentals are still positive, but the long-term price rise may weaken due to the increase in supply in December. Follow up attention to macro, crude oil, new capacity production and import.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 3, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6666.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 1, the average price of butanone increased by 266 yuan / ton, or 4.17%; compared with the price on October 1, the average price increased by 500 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.11%; and the maximum amplitude from October 1 to November 3 was 8.11%.

October butanone market “parabola”

In October, the overall trend of domestic butanone market is like a parabola. From the beginning of the month to the national day, the overall market of butanone has been running smoothly. Since the 14th of the middle of the month, the overall market of butanone is getting better. The low inventory gives confidence to the industry. Factories and shippers are eager to rise. Shandong, Nanjing and other markets have raised the ex factory price of butanone by 400-500 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of butanone market has risen to 6500-6700 yuan / ton From the end of October, due to the lack of new orders, the market of butanone dropped slightly. Until the end of the month, the trend of butanone continued to loosen and go down. As of the 31st, the average ex factory price of butanone market was 6400 yuan / ton, up 133 yuan / ton or 3.78% compared with the beginning of October.

In early November, the market of butanone rose with “recovery”

In November, the domestic butanone market recovered and started with a rising trend. On the 2nd and 3rd, the dynamic market continued to rise slightly, with a total increase of 200-300 yuan / T in two days. At present, the overall inventory of domestic factories is low, and secondary traders in South China have begun to trade in succession. The support of new orders in the market has been strong. At present, the overall market has been stable until November 3 The average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is 6666.67 yuan / ton, which is 266 yuan / ton or 4.17% higher than that on November 1.

Internationally, on November 2, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $36.81/barrel, up $1.02. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 38.97 US dollars / barrel, up 1.03 US dollars. Oil prices rebounded by nearly 3% on Monday. Russian oil companies and Russian energy minister Novak on Monday discussed the feasibility of extending the current production reduction scale of “OPEC +” to the first quarter of next year. In addition, with the US election approaching, Biden, the Democratic Party, is still in the lead, boosting the oil price rebound.

The new order can still operate with high stability for a short time

At the beginning of the month, butanone will continue to be supported by a short-term high price of butanone, so it is expected that the short-term supply of butanone will continue to increase due to the short-term high price of butanone.

At the beginning of the week, domestic polysilicon market maintained a downward trend last week, and today’s market price fell steadily. At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about three polysilicon manufacturers have been maintaining maintenance or load reduction. The production capacity in Xinjiang has been gradually restored, and the supply has slightly increased compared with the previous period. In addition, according to relevant information, the Sichuan plant suffered floods before, which led to plant shutdown. Last week, the plant was able to produce qualified materials, which also brought about an increase in market supply. There is an increasing trend in enterprise inventory. From the demand point of view, the downstream signing situation is general, large factories have signed new orders in November, and a few large factories have signed contracts. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with the model of first-class solar material is 60000-70000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, polysilicon manufacturers this week no new device maintenance news, supply is still relatively abundant. In addition, whether the current contradiction between supply and demand can be balanced depends on the situation of terminals and exports. Due to the severe overseas epidemic situation, it is expected that export may bring pressure. Under the premise of stable domestic demand, the support of silicon materials will be reduced to a certain extent, which will add a lot of goods from OCI in South Korea. It is expected that polysilicon materials will still have a downward trend in the near future.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly in October. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, 0.69% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 26.09% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

In October, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose slightly. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ device operation was stable. Recently, the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Some manufacturers reported that the inquiry situation rose, and the price trend of the market rose. Recently, the export market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is on demand. The trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable in the near future. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still has a lot of production stoppages. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rises slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2700-2800 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

In October, the price of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 1616.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.59%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1650 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offered 1650 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offered 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli quoted 1700 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the situation of on-site running goods is rising. The price trend of nitric acid Market in October is rising, and the price of raw material nitric acid is rising, which forms a certain favorable support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rises slightly.

The domestic market price of liquid ammonia rose slightly in October. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3216.67 yuan / ton, 1.05% higher than that of 3183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market price of liquid ammonia increased slightly, mainly due to the stable supply of large factories, the normal operation of the device, and the release of inventory pressure. Affected by the recent domestic market rise, some manufacturers switched to urea, and the amount of ammonia was controlled. Moreover, due to the limited production in Shanxi and some other regions, the operating rate decreased, which brought some support to the supply. From the downstream, in the current off-season of agricultural fertilizer, the terminal does not take delivery, many places have prices but no market. The market price of liquid ammonia rises slightly, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rises in October.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw material ammonium nitrate has a certain supporting role, and the ammonium nitrate analysts of business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain a high level in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the market price of TDI was slightly lowered this week, with the average price in East China at 16666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.91% compared with 17166.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week, and increased by 28.53% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

During the week, the domestic TDI market was weak. At the beginning of the week, the information of suppliers was complicated, and the mentality of the industry was tangled. The intraday offer was tentatively inclined to the high level, but the downstream follow-up was weak, and the high-level transaction resistance was large. The price of polyether is high, and the downstream sponge factories are under great pressure. Most enterprises choose to digest the initial inventory or purchase on demand. The enthusiasm of entering the market is weak and the purchase of TDI is limited. As of the 30th, TDI’s domestic goods offer in East China market refers to 15000-16000 yuan / ton, while Shanghai’s offers refer to about 16500 yuan / ton.

This week, the market of toluene was weak, and the price trend was down. As of 30 days, the domestic average price was about 3250 yuan / ton. The port inventory of toluene was high, and the pressure to remove the warehouse was still in place. The downstream demand was general, the negotiation atmosphere was not active, and the international oil price fell to the lowest price in five months. Affected by this, the quotation of toluene in the domestic market fell and the market support was limited. It is expected that the domestic toluene market will continue to be weak in the future Potential operation.

3、 Future forecast

According to TDI, the market is weak at present, and the market data is weak.