According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of September 30, the average price of domestic 180 CST fuel oil in mainstream market was 3612.50 yuan / ton, down 2.69% from 3712.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.
| PVA 2699 |
On September 30, the fuel oil commodity index was 73.16, down 36.88% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 58.77% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Analysis of influencing factors
Fuel stocks increased and prices fell. Domestic fuel oil prices fell in a weak trend this month, with a light turnover. The mainstream price at the end of the month was about 3612 yuan / ton. On September 29, the spot price of Zhoushan port fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was 295 USD / T, which was 8.24% lower than 321.5 USD / T at the beginning of the month. According to data released by the Singapore Enterprise Development Council (ESG), Singapore’s stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, surged by 2.232 million barrels in the week ending September 23, to a five week high of 23.633 million barrels.
| PVA 0599 (PVA BF05) |
The epidemic situation in foreign countries is more serious, the overall demand is weak, the crude oil price is falling, and the cost side is unfavorable to the fuel price. According to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil of the United States was 42.61 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the month and 39.29 US dollars / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly rise and fall of – 7.79%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was 45.28 dollars / barrel, at the end of the month was 41.56 dollars / barrel, with a monthly rise and fall of – 8.22%. On September 25, local time, Stella kyriakidis, EU health commissioner, warned that the epidemic situation in some countries of the EU was worse than that in March, and the epidemic situation in Europe has become very serious again. In the early stage, the OPEC + production reduction agreement was not complete, and the crude oil supply surface pressure was large. US crude oil inventories fell by 831000 barrels to 494.4 million barrels in the week of September 25.
Future forecast
Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the overall market downturn, limited terminal demand, light transactions, coupled with the recent decline in international crude oil prices, affected by the cost and supply-demand relationship, it is expected that the fuel oil market will continue to operate in a weak position in the future.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |