Supply is hard to find, demand rises, ABS price rises in September

Price trend:


According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and strengthened in September, and most of the spot prices in the market rose. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14950.00 yuan / ton, which was 1.01% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.


PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Factor analysis:


As for styrene upstream of ABS, the domestic styrene price fluctuated in the first half of September, and the market was mainly horizontal in the last ten days. At present, although there are reports of a small increase in mainstream warehouses and social commodity stocks, the recent arrival of styrene in ports is less, and the domestic factory inventory is declining, and styrene digestion is expected to be better. The trend of crude oil in the far end of the cost end this month is general, and the upstream pure benzene is stable, which has support for styrene. Affected by the second wave of the epidemic, the demand of overseas markets was restrained to a certain extent, and the bulk commodities generally declined. The downstream consumption is fair, and the inquiry atmosphere has improved. The current inventory is at a historical high, which is a major factor in suppressing the styrene market. In the short term, it is expected that the styrene market will continue to face a stalemate.


ABS upstream acrylonitrile, this month’s domestic market continued last month’s strong trend. In terms of cost side, the market in September was also good, with strong support for acrylonitrile. At the end of the month, supply and demand tend to be balanced. In addition, in terms of the operating rate of acrylic fiber industry, it is speculated that the future market may be difficult to maintain, and the downstream demand lacks of further positive promotion, which may lead to a supply-demand contradiction in the market after the Festival. Overseas market is due to reduced supply and the market has risen, there is a certain support for the domestic market. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will stabilize temporarily in the near future.


The domestic market of butadiene showed strong performance in September, the price was stable at the beginning of the month, the market momentum was obvious in the middle of the month, and the high consolidation in the last ten days. This month, the external market performance is strong, good domestic spot continued to rise. Downstream synthetic rubber market high volatility, butadiene support is acceptable. The overall tight supply pattern of domestic production enterprises remains unchanged, Sinopec’s supply price continues to rise, and the supply side slightly increases in the late ten days. Butadiene market rose rapidly in September, and the downstream demand was mainly replenishment on demand, so the procurement operation was more cautious. At present, businesses have a strong mentality and go with the market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be adjusted mainly in the near future.


PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

In September, the domestic ABS market offer was generally high, and the spot price was relatively strong. Domestic ABS spot supply shortage situation has not improved, month low and double festival before the stock tide, downstream factories actively stock up operation, but the theater shortage. In addition, September has always been the traditional peak season, and the demand of the home appliance industry further pushed up the spot price. Overseas continued to be affected by public health events, crude oil and futures in September were not ideal, which had a certain suppression effect on ABS market and intensified the market wait-and-see mentality. At present, the mentality of merchants is temporarily stable, and the upsurge of replenishment before the double festival at the end of the month has led to a general increase in business quotations and a warming up of trading atmosphere.


Future forecast:


Business agency analysts believe that: September ABS market high and strong, the trend is more positive. The prices of various brands are firm and some of them have gone up. Cost side of the upstream three material trend this month is also good, the cost side of ABS support. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream demand has increased. Business delivery resistance reduced, the pre Festival trading atmosphere is better, low-cost supply is difficult to find. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be high in the near future.