September is the traditional peak season of gas market, but the gas market has not gone out of the expected route. In September, natural gas fell first and then rose, while liquefied gas declined all the way. As can be seen from the figure, the gas market at the beginning of the month is mainly a small drop, and the trend of the gas market begins to deviate in the middle of the month, and the trend at the end of the month is obviously different. Natural gas and liquefied gas are both red in October, with natural gas rising by 2.92% and liquefied gas by 6.84%.
LNG rose 9.28% in September, and then rose after the holiday
|PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)|
Since the second half of the month, due to the relatively stable market situation, the shipment situation of some liquid plants has improved, and the demand has gradually increased. Moreover, after the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not great, the shipment situation has been improved, and the bad factors in the off-season demand are added Gradually turned light, the market trading improved, the market continued to rise, near the end of the month is climbing. With the decrease of temperature, the demand for urban fuel and vehicle is better, and some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have a good confidence in price.
During the holiday, traffic was blocked and LNG shipment was not smooth. After the holiday, the road transportation was restored and the downstream began to actively replenish. The terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cool. The northern cities gradually entered the heating period in winter, which supported the upward trend of LNG price and the active adjustment of liquid price in many places. Moreover, due to the increase of feed gas price, the liquid plant was optimistic and the market gradually changed from The off-season turned into the peak season.
Jinjiu rebounds after falling short of LPG Festival
In September, the domestic LPG market in Shandong Province fell mainly. In the first ten days of the month, the main decline was obvious. International oil prices continued to fall, news negative market mentality. And downstream demand did not increase, mainly consumed inventory, the overall market trading atmosphere slightly light. In the early stage, the shutdown enterprises have been gradually restored, the market supply has increased, and the sales pressure has been increased. Down stream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, enter the market operation cautiously. Manufacturers did not improve shipment, inventory pressure gradually increased. Continuously reduce the price and give priority to shipment. The prices of some manufacturers have fallen below 3000 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the market rebounded twice but failed, and then continued to fall. The main reason for its rebound failure is terminal demand. In September, with the arrival of autumn, the temperature gradually turned cool, and the terminal market was expected to increase. However, the demand this year was slower than that in previous years. There was no obvious change in the downstream demand. It was mainly to consume more inventory. Most of them were cautious, and the enthusiasm for entering the market was general. Due to the poor delivery situation and the gradual accumulation of inventory, manufacturers were forced to lower the price to stimulate downstream market entry. With the arrival of the double festival, the demand for inventory and inventory at the end of the month has weakened one after another.
|PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)|
After the holiday, the price of LPG civil market rebounded. After the festival, the downstream started the replenishment mode, the enthusiasm of entering the market was good, the manufacturers’ shipment was smooth, and the inventory was mostly at a low level. On the 9th, the Shandong market of civil gas continued to rise, with a range of about 50 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of 3000-3030 yuan / ton. The sharp rise of international crude oil in the morning also brought a significant boost to the market, and the periphery was higher. The news was favorable to the market mentality, and the manufacturers’ mentality was firm, and the ex factory prices were raised successively.
In the future, the gas market may continue to rise
The natural gas market, with the return of the holiday, the road transportation is restored to be unobstructed, the downstream starts to actively replenish, the terminal demand increases, and the weather turns cool, northern cities gradually enter the winter heating period, which will support the LNG price upward. In the LPG market, the CP price rose slightly in October, and the international crude oil rebounded, which brought a certain boost to the market. At present, the downstream procurement is more active, and the production and sales are not under pressure. It is expected that the future gas market is still likely to rise.