Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (September 2): 8310 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 8310 yuan / ton, up 0.24% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene went up, which led to the rising atmosphere of downstream synthetic rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current butadiene price is around 5612 yuan / ton; on the other hand, due to the tight supply of cis-1,4-butadiene units of Haopu and Taijiao Yubu, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has been increased.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of raw material butadiene is high and the supply is tight. It is expected that the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market will continue to rise in the future

The domestic butadiene market continued to rise in August, especially in the middle and late ten days. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4773 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 5387 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 20.44% during the month, and a decrease of 47.97% compared with the same period last year.

The domestic butadiene market continued to rise in August. The main reason is that the external market is good and the market supply is relatively tight. On the outside side, the closing price at the end of August was higher than that at the end of July, and the prices in all regions increased substantially: FOB Korea closed at 610 US dollars / ton in late August, up 130 US dollars / ton; CFR mainland China closed 600 US dollars / ton at the end of August, rising 90 US dollars / ton; CFR Northeast Asia closed 625 US dollars / ton at August, up 125 USD / T; FOB Rotterdam closed at 450 USD / T at the end of August, up 180 USD / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 370 euro / T at the end of August, up 85 EUR / T.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply rose 700 yuan / ton to 5400 yuan / ton month on month; the 120000 tons / year butadiene plant in Baolai, Liaoning Province started operation within the month, and 1000 tons of qualified products were sold through competitive bidding by the end of the month; Huajin butadiene plant in Northern China was in stable operation, with 676 tons of goods from online auction as of the end of the month, and most of the offline supply contracts were downstream oriented; Dalian Hengli was 140000 tons/ As of August 31, the listed price of butadiene unit was 5060 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month; the butadiene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company was in stable operation with the listing price of 5100 yuan / ton as of August 31.

In terms of industrial chain, downstream styrene butadiene rubber: according to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 31, the reference price of styrene butadiene rubber was 8233.33 yuan / ton, which was 2.49% higher than that on August 1 (8033.33 yuan / ton). At the beginning of the month, the sales company raised the price of styrene butadiene rubber, and traders tentatively offered to increase the price. Since the middle of June, the spot price of oil glue has obviously increased; at the end of the month, some supply and marketing companies have raised the ex factory price of Xinyue, and the manufacturers have tentatively increased the price, waiting for the market to follow up.

CIS polybutadiene rubber: according to the monitoring data of the business agency, on August 31, the reference price of cis-1-polybutadiene rubber was 8260.00 yuan / ton, which was 2.35% higher than that on August 1 (8070.00 yuan / ton). With Baolai and other companies gradually increasing the supply of butadiene, the cost support is still in place; taixiang, Lande and Dushanzi CIS butadiene units are expected to be overhauled, and the supply of some brands is slightly narrowed; the price difference between Shanghai Rubber and cis-1-butadiene continues to enlarge, and the support from the news is stronger; the comprehensive benefits of the above three parties make the bottom of cis-1-butadiene more solid.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in August 2020, there were 42 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 16 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were polysilicon (53.96%), TDI (30.15%) and DMF (28.48%). A total of 34 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 8.9% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were hydrochloric acid (- 16.08%), isopropanol (- 15.12%) and acetic acid (- 10.13%). This month, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

In the future, on the positive side, the external price is high; the downstream construction is relatively high; the northern spot supply is limited. On the negative side, the import volume is relatively high; the output of Bora is released; the production of new units is expected to be put into operation. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market is mainly short-term high finishing.

According to the data, the natural rubber commodity index on August 31 was 34.97, up 0.61 points compared with yesterday, 65.03% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 28.19% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in August 2020

According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream price of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 10860 yuan / ton on August 1 and 11800 yuan / ton on 31 August, with a monthly increase of 8.59%. Among them, in the second half of the month, especially in the last few days of the month, the increase increased significantly, and the increase in the last week could exceed 4%. The lowest price of this month is the 1-day price, and the highest price is also the price on the last day of the month. The maximum amplitude is also 8.59%. This month is a very typical one with occasional small shocks.

New rubber production reduction: new rubber production reduction, shortage of spot rubber, domestic all latex and foreign light color rubber production is small, serious shortage, this month, especially in the second half of the month, the natural rubber market has been rising, the main factor is the production reduction factor. In 2020, due to the special situation, epidemic situation, weather and other factors, the opening time of Southeast Asia production area was delayed, and the release of raw material production was slow, and the production reduction was certain. The data showed that in July 2020, the export volume of natural rubber (including composite and mixed rubber) in Thailand was about 314300 tons, and the export volume fell by 7.18% month on month, 6.96% year-on-year; in early August, Thailand suffered typhoon weather, and the raw material output was limited, so the output of raw materials was limited The weather has only slightly improved, the supply of raw materials is tighter than expected, and some cargo is still delayed. In 2020, the supply and release rate of Thailand’s main natural rubber production areas will be slow. Suppliers generally say that raw material procurement is in short supply, and the supply is mainly for long-term customers. In view of the shortage of raw materials, some ships delayed the delivery of natural rubber, which led to a double decline in Thailand’s natural rubber exports on a month on month basis in July. As the largest exporter of natural rubber, the double decline of its exports also determines the formation of the shortage of Thai gum in China’s domestic market. It can be seen that the overall export volume of Southeast Asian suppliers to China in the third quarter is inevitable. From the perspective of domestic production areas, the amount of new rubber tapping in Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China has gone through the serious stage of epidemic situation and finally passed through a long drought period. However, due to the rainy season, the production can not be increased. According to the local traders, the rubber warehouses in Kunming and Banna of Yunnan Province are basically empty, and the shortage of supply will continue. In addition, the situation of local index rubber import has not been released, and the local supply is in short supply It’s also conceivable.

Downstream: first of all, the automotive industry is recovering. According to the latest data of China Automobile Industry Association, in July 2020, China’s automobile production and sales will reach 2.201 million and 2.12 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and 16.4%. In terms of new energy vehicles, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 100000 and 98000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.6% and 19.3%. Secondly, in August, downstream tire enterprises ushered in a price rise tide. Linglong tire (601966), General Motors (601500) and other A-share tire companies successively issued price increase letters to raise the prices of tire products. There are two main factors. One is that China’s auto market has begun to recover, the outlook of the auto industry chain is improving, and the demand is increasing, which supports the rise of tire prices; the second is that the spot shortage of natural rubber, as a cost side, the price of natural rubber keeps rising, which drives the tire price up. Among them, the increase in the cost of raw material of natural rubber is the more important factor. Global tire giant Zhengxin rubber recently announced that since August and September 2020, the price of luxury car tires, high-performance sports recreational tires, locomotive tires and bicycle tires will increase by an average of 3% to 5%. For the time being, there will be no price increase for the new truck tyres. Zhengxin rubber said: the main reason for this round of price increase is that the price of raw materials has stopped falling but rose instead. At the moment of entering September, the sales law of “golden nine silver ten” traditional sales peak season will not change basically. The best sales season of the year has come, and the improvement of downstream has promoted the strong upward trend of natural rubber price. Thirdly, from the semi annual reports of tire enterprises, it can be seen that the performance of Linglong tire, Pulin Chengshan, Sailun shares and other tire enterprises in the first half of the year showed a counter attack, even a rise of dozens of percent. The recovery of the tire industry and the growth potential of adding downstream demand can be seen.

Be alert to the investigation of anti-dumping. Although the situation of the tire industry has improved, the instability of the international market and the unfair treatment of China’s tire industry by some foreign governments or organizations have increased the resistance to the development of China’s tire enterprises. On August 19, the Eurasian Economic Commission issued announcement No. 2020 / 228 / ad18r1. According to the announcement, the organization decided to launch the first sunset review investigation on imported truck tires from China. The tax codes of the products involved were 401201000 and 4011209000. It is reported that the investigation is based on the No. 11 resolution of the internal market protection department on August 14. The Eurasian Economic Union’s sanctions on Chinese tires can be traced back to six years ago. On September 1, 2014, the newly established Eurasian Economic Union launched an anti-dumping investigation on truck tires of China. On November 17, 2015, the Eurasian Economic Commission made resolution 154. The resolution states that anti-dumping duties of 14.79% – 35.35% will be imposed on the products involved in the case.

To sum up, we believe that the natural rubber industry is in the best period of the year, and the “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season has gradually arrived. Under the inevitable situation of production reduction this year, the auto market will recover, the demand will be better, and the domestic market’s demand for natural rubber procurement will be enhanced. Under the premise that the shortage of domestic rubber and imported rubber in the later stage has not changed greatly, the trend of natural rubber shock and surge will be strengthened again. We should be alert to the excessive speculation of futures rubber, which will lead to the virtual high price of spot rubber, and we should still be cautious and long-term Point of view.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the mainstream average price of domestic PVC in August 27 was 6565 yuan / ton, up 1.19% compared with 6487.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 2.18% higher on a month on month basis, and 1.61% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the PVC market first rose, then fell and then rose, showing a roller coaster market, quite volatile, and the overall center of gravity began to move up. This month’s rise was mainly driven by the strong volatility of PVC futures and the rising cost of raw materials. However, due to the constraints of consumption in the off-season, the upward range was not large, accompanied by a correction. The market fluctuated slightly, with a maximum amplitude of 2.41%, with an increase of about 150 yuan. In August, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased, and the preliminary maintenance enterprises began to operate successively. However, due to the influence of the flood season, the output of some manufacturers in some areas declined, and the pressure on the supply side was not great. At the same time, the social inventory continued to decline. Although there was a slight recovery, it still showed a downward trend year on year. The manufacturers had strong willingness to adjust the price, and the calcium carbide price at the raw material end rose by more than 4% in August, which had a good support for PVC. In mid August, the PVC industry is still in the short-term upward driving force of the real estate industry, while the real demand for PVC products is still in the short-term upward trend after mid August. Near the arrival of the “golden nine” peak season, the demand may increase, which will boost the market atmosphere. PVC may continue to fluctuate upward, and there is no lack of rising market.

In terms of demand, this month is in the off-season of consumption, and the downstream is general. Due to the influence of the flood season and typhoon, some enterprises in some regions have started to decline slightly. The real estate industry is still the main driving force of demand. The macro trend is warmer. The pipe enterprises are slightly improved. The profile performance is poor. The medical industry continues to have a high opening rate. The operation rate of the wire and cable industry and membrane materials has also increased compared with the previous period. On the whole, the demand is favorable Good support is still in place, but the strength is weakened. The ability to receive PVC goods which continues to rise is limited. It is about to enter the peak season in September, and the demand for PVC may be expected to increase.

In terms of supply, there are few maintenance and repair enterprises in this month, but the volume of enterprises is large. There are many enterprises such as Shaanxi Beiyuan, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Qinghai Salt Lake magnesium industry, etc., and there are many long-term parking devices affected by safety accidents and environmental protection in the early stage, such as Hebei Shenghua, Yidong Dongxing and other enterprises. At the same time, some enterprises have reduced their load due to the influence of continuous rainstorm, such as Jinlu, Sichuan Yongxiang and other enterprises, this month’s output to a certain extent affected, the supply side pressure is not big, on the PVC up played a supporting role.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in July 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.664 million tons, up 4% compared with the same period last year; from January to July 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 11.425 million tons, down 2.2% compared with the same period last year.

Regional variety technology August 27

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6630-6750 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 6470-6570 yuan / ton

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6650-6730 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6640-6750 yuan / ton

In terms of spot goods, as of August 27, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide was around 6350-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type tourmaline in East China is around 6600-6700 yuan / ton, while that in Changzhou is 6650-6730 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 type tourmaline in Hebei is 6470-6570 yuan / ton. The price is adjusted in a narrow range. The ex factory price of goods from Inner Mongolia is increased by 6250-6350 yuan / ton, while that of Hangzhou is 6640-6750 yuan / ton. The quotation is up The mainstream price of tourmaline is 6630-6750 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity moves up.

In terms of futures, on August 27, the main contract 2101 opened at 6680 yuan / ton and closed at 6650 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 6695 yuan / ton, down 0.67%. The trading range was 6635-6785 yuan / ton, with 203254 transactions and 203929 positions.

Upstream crude oil, on August 26, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.39/barrel, up $0.04. Crude oil futures fell $13.0/barrel to settle at $46.0. Oil prices were basically stable on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns about demand during the outbreak. However, oil prices were also boosted by the closure of installations in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Laura.

Ethylene, under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly. As of the 26th, the price is 683.25 US dollars / ton. The market of ethylene in Europe and America is on the upward trend. The demand of the whole ethylene market is moderate, and the rising trend is not big. At present, crude oil: the market is focusing on the impact of Hurricane Laura on US refineries and demand, and the oil price is firm at a high level. Therefore, business agency data analysts predict that ethylene external price will rise next.

Calcium carbide, calcium carbide market rose in August, as of the 26th, the price of calcium carbide was around 2740 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of raw materials in the upstream has generally supported the price of calcium carbide, while the PVC market in the downstream has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the calcium carbide supply is normal. Calcium carbide rose slightly after the shock.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts believe that August PVC market ups and downs, the center of gravity began to move up, but the low-season downstream capacity to receive goods limited, inhibit the rise. In September, although the number of maintenance enterprises is decreasing, the demand side is gradually entering the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced, and there is no big contradiction. Under the situation of macro warming and strong futures fluctuation, the PVC spot market rate continues to fluctuate upward and is not easy to fall deeply. It is also necessary to pay attention to the demand follow-up and the market trend.

In late August, the bisphenol a market went up in a wide range. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic market of bisphenol A offered 9800 yuan / ton on August 21 and 10350 yuan / ton on August 28, an overall increase of 5.61%. This wave of upward trend is not much from the upstream and downstream support, but more from factories and traders controlling the volume. They have a positive attitude and want to push up the market, so the factory side suspended the offer The overall operating rate declined, and the cargo owners insisted on high reporting.

On the supply side, the average operating rate of bisphenol A enterprises is 60-70%. Sinopec Mitsui unit resumed production on August 24, but the supply has not yet fully recovered. Lihua yiweiyuan 240000 ton unit resumed production in early September, while Sinopec Mitsubishi’s 180000 T / a bisphenol a plant stopped on the 18th. The supply side of the market is relatively tight, and the supply source is relatively concentrated near the end of the month. The attitude of the shippers is positive and the offer is not good Disconnect the uplink.

From the point of view of raw materials, phenol / acetone support is insufficient. The phenol market generally has a narrow downward range with little space. Acetone has failed to break through the bottleneck in the rise and fall. So far, the phenol Market in East China has offered 5400 yuan / ton and acetone has offered 6350 yuan / ton. Overall, the phenol / acetone market has sufficient supply, and the short-term market is hardly favorable. The negotiation range still fluctuates in a narrow space, and the support for downstream costs is relatively gentle.

The downstream liquid epoxy resin has entered a high-level finishing situation. The market reference price of liquid epoxy resin is 18400-18600 yuan / ton (barrel acceptance delivery price), and the negotiated price of solid epoxy resin is 14400-14700 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the epoxy resin industry is in a strong operation. Supported by the double raw materials, the market confidence for the resin industry is increasing, the demand for terminal wind power and other factories is fair, and the overall operating rate of enterprises is rising steadily. In the short term, the market of epoxy resin industry just needs to follow up, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods.

In the view of the business agency, the current cost side has little impact. The new contract will be opened next week. At the beginning of the month, the shipping intention of the shippers is not big, and there is a short-term supplement for the port. The Business Association expects the short-term stable operation of bisphenol a market, and the reference of the East China market offer is 10300 yuan / ton.