According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of February 20, 2021, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13633 yuan / ton, up 7.06% compared with the price in early February of the year before. Viscose staple fiber price is high, chemical fiber factory list is sufficient, up high report, the actual trading is not much, sporadic single transaction.

Multi factor catalytic viscose staple fiber ushers in recovery cycle

Since October 2020, viscose staple fiber began to rebound, especially the recent price rise. The catalytic factors of this price rise include cotton linter due to rising costs and less volume; domestic pulp prices continue to rise; downstream goods preparation and other factors, but the fundamental reason is the industry recovery cycle driven by the industry capacity cycle.

Downstream cotton yarn Market

Recently, the price of rayon yarn continued to rise, and the transaction performance was general. Zhejiang Xiaoshao ring spinning 30s price 17600-17800 yuan / ton.

Viscose staple fiber price performance is strong, the price is expected to continue to rise. It is estimated that in 2021, the viscose staple fiber industry will continue the trend of the end of 2020, with a bullish price of 16000 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. The price of domestic PR nd rare earth continues to rise. The market price of terbium rises to a 10-year high, and the price of dysprosium reaches a 5-year high. The price of domestic rare earth market rises step by step. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on February 19 was 486 points, 6 points higher than yesterday, and 100 points higher than the highest point in the cycle 0 (2011-12-06) decreased by 51.40%, up 79.34% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth prices continue to rise, and the recent rare earth market is full of bullish, and the market prices continue to rise. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of PR Nd oxide, PR nd alloy, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium have increased. As of February 19, the price of PR Nd oxide in domestic rare earth is 477500 yuan / ton; the price of PR nd alloy is 592500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium oxide is 577500 yuan / ton; the price of metal neodymium oxide is 717500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium oxide is 412500 yuan / ton/ The price of praseodymium is 630000 yuan / ton, and the domestic light rare earth market is rising continuously.

Recently, the demand for permanent magnet continues to increase, and new energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021, which has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet also has a “free ride”. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, China’s auto sales will reach 25.311 million in 2020. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million, breaking the historical record. Downstream demand is rising, it is said that the demand gap has been increasing, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, while the dysprosium series market price has continued to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continued to rise, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.405 million yuan / ton as of the 19th; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy reaching 2.385 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal reaching 3.075 million yuan / ton; the domestic price of terbium series rose sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.825 million yuan / ton and the price of terbium metal reaching 11.025 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium series rose to the highest level in 10 years. There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp rise in the price of heavy rare earth. Second, the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has maintained a high level.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the management of the rare earth industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further growth in demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2201.33 yuan / ton on February 18, 2134.67 yuan / ton on February 9, up 3.12% after the

festival, 5.6% on a month on month basis and 13.86% on a year-on-year basis.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on February 18, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, and on February 9, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, up 2.05% on a month on month basis. After the festival, the price was temporarily stable, up 13.18% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

After the Spring Festival, the price of map increased by 3.12%. At present, the foreign demand of map is increasing, and the price is rising, which drives the domestic market. At the same time, the price of raw materials is rising, the cost support is stronger, and the fundamentals are good. The sales pressure of enterprises is not big, so they are generally optimistic about the future market. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Anhui Province is 2105 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei Province is 2170-2200 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan Province is about 2200-2250 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton.

After the Spring Festival, the price of DAP is temporarily stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation compared with that before the festival. In Hubei Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises stopped reporting, while in Gansu Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises offered 2650 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2930-3050 yuan / ton. In Guizhou Province, 64% diammonium is priced at 2950-3000 yuan per ton, while in Heilongjiang Province, the first station advance receipt price of 64% diammonium rises to about 3050 yuan per ton.

In terms of raw materials, on February 18, the domestic sulfur market rose sharply. The price of solid sulfur in regional refineries increased by 30-80 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur in East China increased by 50 yuan / ton, while the price in other regions was temporarily stable. The sulfur inventory of refineries in various regions is low, the sulfur market is strong, and the shippers have no intention to ship at a low price. At present, the export market of phosphate fertilizer continues to improve. In addition, the domestic spring ploughing fertilizer is approaching, the downstream market is favorable, the sulfur price rises, and the future sulfur market is relatively strong. Pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that after the holiday, the market of ammonium phosphate will be better, the price of monoammonium phosphate will rise, and the price of diammonium phosphate will remain high. At present, the foreign demand of map is increasing, and the price is rising, which drives the domestic market. At the same time, the price of raw materials is rising, the cost support is stronger, and the fundamentals are good. The sales pressure of enterprises is not big. Generally, they are optimistic about the future market, and the price is expected to rise further. In the short term, the market is stable. However, with the support of tight supply and favorable conditions, it is expected that the future price will be easy to rise but difficult to fall.

The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, the weather turned cold, and the asphalt demand of terminal road engineering remained low, but the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the cost side promoted the domestic asphalt price upward. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the asphalt price was 2577 yuan / ton on February 5, up 1.68 yuan from the beginning of the week.

On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States has led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. Moreover, the sharp decline in US commercial crude oil inventories in the past two weeks has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices. International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, with WTI crude oil up 8.91% and Brent crude oil up 7.81%.

Most refineries in Northeast and North China stopped production or changed production, the supply of asphalt decreased, and the market price remained stable. The demand for asphalt in East China is general. Refineries reduce the output of asphalt. Refineries in South China have stable production, stable demand release and stable market price. In Southwest China, the market supply was slightly tight, which led to the rise of the mainstream transaction price. In the near future, major asphalt refineries are mainly selling at stable prices, while asphalt prices are mainly supported by crude oil prices.

Analysts from business news agency believe that after the international crude oil price rises sharply, it is likely to maintain a high level, and it is less likely to continue to explore the high level. As the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, domestic asphalt demand is at a low level, and domestic asphalt price is expected to be mainly stable.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the market of acetic anhydride rose this week, and the price of acetic anhydride rose again before the festival. As of February 8, the price of acetic anhydride was 8400.00 yuan / ton, up 3.28% from 8133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of February.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid is rising this week, and the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride is rising. With the coming of the Spring Festival, acetic acid enterprises stop to reduce the load more, the operating rate of acetic acid is low, the supply of acetic acid is insufficient, the shortage of acetic acid increases, the price of acetic acid rises, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rises.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that the methanol price first fell and then rose this week. Although the methanol price still fell slightly, the methanol price stopped falling and rebounded, the methanol market gradually recovered, the driving force of acetic anhydride cost rising and acetic anhydride rising increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that since February, acetic acid prices have risen sharply, methanol prices have stopped falling and rebounded, acetic anhydride costs have risen, and acetic anhydride’s rising momentum has increased. The downstream customers are more resistant to the high price of acetic anhydride, and the price of acetic anhydride rises; the continuous rise of raw materials of acetic anhydride stimulates the price of acetic anhydride to rise, and the price of acetic anhydride rises again before the festival.