1、 Price trend
| PVA |
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the mainstream average price of domestic PVC in August 27 was 6565 yuan / ton, up 1.19% compared with 6487.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 2.18% higher on a month on month basis, and 1.61% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In August, the PVC market first rose, then fell and then rose, showing a roller coaster market, quite volatile, and the overall center of gravity began to move up. This month’s rise was mainly driven by the strong volatility of PVC futures and the rising cost of raw materials. However, due to the constraints of consumption in the off-season, the upward range was not large, accompanied by a correction. The market fluctuated slightly, with a maximum amplitude of 2.41%, with an increase of about 150 yuan. In August, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased, and the preliminary maintenance enterprises began to operate successively. However, due to the influence of the flood season, the output of some manufacturers in some areas declined, and the pressure on the supply side was not great. At the same time, the social inventory continued to decline. Although there was a slight recovery, it still showed a downward trend year on year. The manufacturers had strong willingness to adjust the price, and the calcium carbide price at the raw material end rose by more than 4% in August, which had a good support for PVC. In mid August, the PVC industry is still in the short-term upward driving force of the real estate industry, while the real demand for PVC products is still in the short-term upward trend after mid August. Near the arrival of the “golden nine” peak season, the demand may increase, which will boost the market atmosphere. PVC may continue to fluctuate upward, and there is no lack of rising market.
In terms of demand, this month is in the off-season of consumption, and the downstream is general. Due to the influence of the flood season and typhoon, some enterprises in some regions have started to decline slightly. The real estate industry is still the main driving force of demand. The macro trend is warmer. The pipe enterprises are slightly improved. The profile performance is poor. The medical industry continues to have a high opening rate. The operation rate of the wire and cable industry and membrane materials has also increased compared with the previous period. On the whole, the demand is favorable Good support is still in place, but the strength is weakened. The ability to receive PVC goods which continues to rise is limited. It is about to enter the peak season in September, and the demand for PVC may be expected to increase.
In terms of supply, there are few maintenance and repair enterprises in this month, but the volume of enterprises is large. There are many enterprises such as Shaanxi Beiyuan, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Qinghai Salt Lake magnesium industry, etc., and there are many long-term parking devices affected by safety accidents and environmental protection in the early stage, such as Hebei Shenghua, Yidong Dongxing and other enterprises. At the same time, some enterprises have reduced their load due to the influence of continuous rainstorm, such as Jinlu, Sichuan Yongxiang and other enterprises, this month’s output to a certain extent affected, the supply side pressure is not big, on the PVC up played a supporting role.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in July 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.664 million tons, up 4% compared with the same period last year; from January to July 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 11.425 million tons, down 2.2% compared with the same period last year.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Regional variety technology August 27
Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6630-6750 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 6470-6570 yuan / ton
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6650-6730 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6640-6750 yuan / ton
In terms of spot goods, as of August 27, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide was around 6350-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type tourmaline in East China is around 6600-6700 yuan / ton, while that in Changzhou is 6650-6730 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 type tourmaline in Hebei is 6470-6570 yuan / ton. The price is adjusted in a narrow range. The ex factory price of goods from Inner Mongolia is increased by 6250-6350 yuan / ton, while that of Hangzhou is 6640-6750 yuan / ton. The quotation is up The mainstream price of tourmaline is 6630-6750 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity moves up.
In terms of futures, on August 27, the main contract 2101 opened at 6680 yuan / ton and closed at 6650 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 6695 yuan / ton, down 0.67%. The trading range was 6635-6785 yuan / ton, with 203254 transactions and 203929 positions.
Upstream crude oil, on August 26, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.39/barrel, up $0.04. Crude oil futures fell $13.0/barrel to settle at $46.0. Oil prices were basically stable on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns about demand during the outbreak. However, oil prices were also boosted by the closure of installations in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Laura.
Ethylene, under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly. As of the 26th, the price is 683.25 US dollars / ton. The market of ethylene in Europe and America is on the upward trend. The demand of the whole ethylene market is moderate, and the rising trend is not big. At present, crude oil: the market is focusing on the impact of Hurricane Laura on US refineries and demand, and the oil price is firm at a high level. Therefore, business agency data analysts predict that ethylene external price will rise next.
Calcium carbide, calcium carbide market rose in August, as of the 26th, the price of calcium carbide was around 2740 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of raw materials in the upstream has generally supported the price of calcium carbide, while the PVC market in the downstream has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the calcium carbide supply is normal. Calcium carbide rose slightly after the shock.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts believe that August PVC market ups and downs, the center of gravity began to move up, but the low-season downstream capacity to receive goods limited, inhibit the rise. In September, although the number of maintenance enterprises is decreasing, the demand side is gradually entering the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced, and there is no big contradiction. Under the situation of macro warming and strong futures fluctuation, the PVC spot market rate continues to fluctuate upward and is not easy to fall deeply. It is also necessary to pay attention to the demand follow-up and the market trend.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |