According to the data, the natural rubber commodity index on August 31 was 34.97, up 0.61 points compared with yesterday, 65.03% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 28.19% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
| PVA |
Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in August 2020
According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream price of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 10860 yuan / ton on August 1 and 11800 yuan / ton on 31 August, with a monthly increase of 8.59%. Among them, in the second half of the month, especially in the last few days of the month, the increase increased significantly, and the increase in the last week could exceed 4%. The lowest price of this month is the 1-day price, and the highest price is also the price on the last day of the month. The maximum amplitude is also 8.59%. This month is a very typical one with occasional small shocks.
New rubber production reduction: new rubber production reduction, shortage of spot rubber, domestic all latex and foreign light color rubber production is small, serious shortage, this month, especially in the second half of the month, the natural rubber market has been rising, the main factor is the production reduction factor. In 2020, due to the special situation, epidemic situation, weather and other factors, the opening time of Southeast Asia production area was delayed, and the release of raw material production was slow, and the production reduction was certain. The data showed that in July 2020, the export volume of natural rubber (including composite and mixed rubber) in Thailand was about 314300 tons, and the export volume fell by 7.18% month on month, 6.96% year-on-year; in early August, Thailand suffered typhoon weather, and the raw material output was limited, so the output of raw materials was limited The weather has only slightly improved, the supply of raw materials is tighter than expected, and some cargo is still delayed. In 2020, the supply and release rate of Thailand’s main natural rubber production areas will be slow. Suppliers generally say that raw material procurement is in short supply, and the supply is mainly for long-term customers. In view of the shortage of raw materials, some ships delayed the delivery of natural rubber, which led to a double decline in Thailand’s natural rubber exports on a month on month basis in July. As the largest exporter of natural rubber, the double decline of its exports also determines the formation of the shortage of Thai gum in China’s domestic market. It can be seen that the overall export volume of Southeast Asian suppliers to China in the third quarter is inevitable. From the perspective of domestic production areas, the amount of new rubber tapping in Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China has gone through the serious stage of epidemic situation and finally passed through a long drought period. However, due to the rainy season, the production can not be increased. According to the local traders, the rubber warehouses in Kunming and Banna of Yunnan Province are basically empty, and the shortage of supply will continue. In addition, the situation of local index rubber import has not been released, and the local supply is in short supply It’s also conceivable.
Downstream: first of all, the automotive industry is recovering. According to the latest data of China Automobile Industry Association, in July 2020, China’s automobile production and sales will reach 2.201 million and 2.12 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and 16.4%. In terms of new energy vehicles, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 100000 and 98000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.6% and 19.3%. Secondly, in August, downstream tire enterprises ushered in a price rise tide. Linglong tire (601966), General Motors (601500) and other A-share tire companies successively issued price increase letters to raise the prices of tire products. There are two main factors. One is that China’s auto market has begun to recover, the outlook of the auto industry chain is improving, and the demand is increasing, which supports the rise of tire prices; the second is that the spot shortage of natural rubber, as a cost side, the price of natural rubber keeps rising, which drives the tire price up. Among them, the increase in the cost of raw material of natural rubber is the more important factor. Global tire giant Zhengxin rubber recently announced that since August and September 2020, the price of luxury car tires, high-performance sports recreational tires, locomotive tires and bicycle tires will increase by an average of 3% to 5%. For the time being, there will be no price increase for the new truck tyres. Zhengxin rubber said: the main reason for this round of price increase is that the price of raw materials has stopped falling but rose instead. At the moment of entering September, the sales law of “golden nine silver ten” traditional sales peak season will not change basically. The best sales season of the year has come, and the improvement of downstream has promoted the strong upward trend of natural rubber price. Thirdly, from the semi annual reports of tire enterprises, it can be seen that the performance of Linglong tire, Pulin Chengshan, Sailun shares and other tire enterprises in the first half of the year showed a counter attack, even a rise of dozens of percent. The recovery of the tire industry and the growth potential of adding downstream demand can be seen.
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Be alert to the investigation of anti-dumping. Although the situation of the tire industry has improved, the instability of the international market and the unfair treatment of China’s tire industry by some foreign governments or organizations have increased the resistance to the development of China’s tire enterprises. On August 19, the Eurasian Economic Commission issued announcement No. 2020 / 228 / ad18r1. According to the announcement, the organization decided to launch the first sunset review investigation on imported truck tires from China. The tax codes of the products involved were 401201000 and 4011209000. It is reported that the investigation is based on the No. 11 resolution of the internal market protection department on August 14. The Eurasian Economic Union’s sanctions on Chinese tires can be traced back to six years ago. On September 1, 2014, the newly established Eurasian Economic Union launched an anti-dumping investigation on truck tires of China. On November 17, 2015, the Eurasian Economic Commission made resolution 154. The resolution states that anti-dumping duties of 14.79% – 35.35% will be imposed on the products involved in the case.
To sum up, we believe that the natural rubber industry is in the best period of the year, and the “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season has gradually arrived. Under the inevitable situation of production reduction this year, the auto market will recover, the demand will be better, and the domestic market’s demand for natural rubber procurement will be enhanced. Under the premise that the shortage of domestic rubber and imported rubber in the later stage has not changed greatly, the trend of natural rubber shock and surge will be strengthened again. We should be alert to the excessive speculation of futures rubber, which will lead to the virtual high price of spot rubber, and we should still be cautious and long-term Point of view.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |