Price trend of spot precious metals

According to business news agency data, on February 26, the average price of silver in the morning market was 5584.67 yuan / kg, down 2.30% from 5716.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.62% from 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On February 26, the spot price of gold was 370.80 yuan / g, a decrease of 4.41% compared with the average price of 372.71 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (2.1), and a decrease of 5.58% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Main reasons for precious metals’ correction in February

1. Soaring bond yields

The poor auction result of US Treasury bonds led the 10-year yield to jump to more than 1.6% on Thursday; the soaring bond yield reflected the improvement of US growth prospects and inflation expectations.

2. Lack of investment demand

After the investment peak in 2020, the price of precious metals will gradually weaken. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expectation of economic recovery from the epidemic is strengthened, and the possibility of real interest rate rising is increasing.

The expected outflow of investment funds from gold ETF increased, and domestic gold ETF positions fell due to factors such as stronger exchange rate.

3. Closure of alternative assets

Other alternative assets spread investor demand for gold.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic industrial grade potassium nitrate was 4175.00 yuan / ton in February, which was stable. The current price was up 0.00% month on month, and the current price was down 4.02% year on year.

In February, the domestic potassium nitrate Market did not fluctuate much. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the exchange trading atmosphere was relatively cold. Most downstream factories took goods on demand, and the inventory was relatively sufficient. The rising power was insufficient. According to the statistics of the business society, the domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers quoted 4000-4300 yuan / ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation was different according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers was temporarily stable: on February 25, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2230 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. In February, the transaction of potassium chloride market was fair, and the price was high, which could give some support to potassium nitrate.

In the near future, potassium chloride has a rising trend, some traders are reluctant to sell, the market supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic caprolactam market continued to rise in late February, and the spot price generally rose. As of February 24, the average price of caprolactam sample enterprises in the business community was 12600 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.76% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

After the festival, domestic caprolactam prices continued to rise. At present, Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price 13200 yuan / ton, cash factory, factory capacity 300000 tons, the actual deal can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 13400 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, about 80% of the unit operating rate. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 13100 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year plant is now back to normal operation, acceptance delivery. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 13100 yuan / ton. The 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance.

The price of pure benzene in the upstream is also strong. According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene has risen continuously, breaking through 6000 yuan / ton, and the price has returned to the pre epidemic level. As of February 24, the price of pure benzene was about 6450 yuan / ton, up 37.82% from the beginning of this month. In terms of external market, affected by the severe cold weather in the United States, many refineries shut down. The sharp rise of crude oil and pure benzene supported the rising price of domestic pure benzene. In addition, some refineries shut down their pure benzene plants unscheduled, and domestic pure benzene enterprises continued to receive good news. New units are expected to be put into operation in the downstream, pure benzene supply is expected to be tightened, and the price still has room to go up. However, the trend of pure benzene is expected to moderate with the recovery of supply of foreign units. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, domestic and foreign trends of pure benzene plants, crude oil, external market and styrene trend, etc.

Future forecast

Caprolactam business analysts believe that: the current upstream benzene market is strong, strong support for caprolactam cost side. The supply side of caprolactam has not been substantially improved. At the same time, after the festival, the starting level of downstream PA6 recovered rapidly, the demand increased, and the price of caprolactam was raised. Domestic caprolactam fundamentals good oligomerization, clear market direction. Caprolactam market is expected to continue optimistic trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of toluene continued to rise after the festival. The price of toluene was 4787.5 yuan / ton on February 9, and 5225.25 yuan / ton on this Sunday (February 21), up 437.75 yuan / ton or 9.14% compared with that before the festival.

2、 Analysis and comment

From February 10 to 21, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 350-600 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, affected by crude oil and cold weather in the United States, energy and chemical products rose. The domestic toluene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and the price rose strongly. Asian PX prices rose due to unscheduled shutdown of some devices and reduced supply. However, there is little change in domestic downstream units, and the demand follow-up is weak, which limits the growth of toluene. In terms of external market, the price of toluene imported from South Korea rose by 5.88% to US $666 / T on February 19, and rose by 5.31% to US $684 / T on February 12.

In terms of crude oil, during the Spring Festival, affected by the extremely cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries declined, the inventory of refined oil decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil increased, which was favorable for oil prices. On February 12, Brent rose $2.125/barrel, or 3.47%; WTI rose $2.39/barrel, or 4.11%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable during the Spring Festival, with domestic goods of 12833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.47% over the same period last year. The domestic market is in strong operation, the supplier’s inventory is under no pressure, and the attitude of supporting the market is still the same. Coupled with the force majeure caused by the bad weather abroad, the market is going up, waiting for the guidance of the supplier’s information.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price showed an upward trend this week, with an average price of 5700 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival, and a year-on-year decline of 9.52%. The operating rate of PX in China is about 60%, and that of p-xylene unit in Asia is about 60%. During the Spring Festival, the earthquake in Japan, Vietnam a set of device shutdown, PX production was affected. In the short term, the domestic PX market continued to go to the warehouse. By the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 762-764 USD / T, FOB Korea and 780-782 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Toluene market ushered in a good start, crude oil support was strong, the bulk market atmosphere was warm, and the price rose generally. But demand limits gains. Overall, toluene is expected to continue to follow the trend. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on toluene prices.

In recent years, the domestic ethanol market is mainly reorganized, and the market performance of each region is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 22, the domestic ethanol market price was 7225 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 1.20% and a year-on-year rise of 23.29%.

In terms of regional market, the market in Henan is stable; the market in Northeast China is up, and the downstream is purchased on demand; the market in Anhui is stable; the ethanol market in East China and Shandong is weak. The results show that the ethanol market in Guangdong is up; the molasses ethanol market in Guangxi is high; the molasses ethanol market in Yunnan is stable. The corn ethanol market in Sichuan is high, and the downstream is purchased on demand.

From the perspective of raw material corn, corn prices fluctuated locally. The Spring Festival holiday atmosphere has gradually faded, the market purchase and sales have gradually recovered, and the stock replenishment market continues to support the high spot price, but the probability of a sharp rise is relatively low. As the tight domestic corn supply situation remains unchanged, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the resumption of work and production, it is expected that the corn price will continue to maintain stability in the middle and late ten days.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province ﹣ general grade ﹣ 7150 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7300-7350 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

About 7300-7350 yuan / ton of corn in Anhui Province

About 7100-7200 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7070-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

In Hebei area, the coal quality is less than 7600 yuan / ton

In Guangxi, the consumption of honey alcohol is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6900-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region: anhydrous ethanol: 7800 yuan / ton

About 7000-7400 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

There are about 8100-8150 anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 7600-7700 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-6900 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

In some areas, the price is weakening and waiting for downstream consumption. At present, the market is waiting for big factories to bid, logistics has resumed work, and the price is weakening because of more cars and less work. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.