According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6575.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6687.75 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 0.75%. The current price is up 0.94% month on month, and the current price is up 5.73% compared with last year.

Recently, the domestic potash market continues to rise, and the potash market has been in short supply. Most of them are concentrated in the hands of large traders. They are reluctant to sell. The downstream market purchases on demand. The trading atmosphere of potash market is acceptable, and the market is rising. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6550-6900 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is at a high level: on April 2, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2210 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On April 2, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2550 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. Recently, the potassium chloride market rose at a high level, and the import potassium price of the port also continued to rise. The cost support was strong, which supported the rise of potassium carbonate market.

Potash analysts from business news agency believe that the recent start-up of potash fertilizer plant is not high, and the market price is high and firm. It is expected that the price of potash carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

In the second quarter, the polyester market may be in a state of “high in the front and low in the back”. In terms of variety selection and rhythm, ethylene glycol is more optimistic in the short term. We believe that ethylene glycol will benefit from the continuous de stocking.

(1) Shut down of foreign plants and import reduction of ethylene glycol

Ethylene glycol is still in the trend of destocking. We believe that with the slow recovery of import volume and the upward focus of domestic production, the inflection point between supply and demand of ethylene glycol will appear in the middle and late April at the earliest, and may really usher in obvious inventory accumulation. (1) The import of ethylene glycol is still an important part of domestic supply. In 2020, the total import volume of ethylene glycol is nearly 10.55 million tons, accounting for 54% of the total domestic supply. In terms of the quarterly distribution of import volume, the import volume showed an expanding state from the first quarter to the third quarter. It didn’t shrink significantly until the fourth quarter. From the change of import volume in the fourth quarter, the month on month decrease is close to 26%, and the import volume in the current quarter only accounts for 18% of the total import volume of the whole year, which is nearly 6% lower than that in the same period of previous years.

It is estimated that the total import volume of ethylene glycol in the first quarter will be around 2 million tons; from the comparison of import volume, it will be nearly 600000 tons lower than the average level of the same period from 2018 to 2020; from the marginal change point of view, the growth rate of this import volume will be about 5 percentage points lower than the level of the same period from 2018 to 2020.

(2) Import reduction drives domestic inventory to accelerate de stocking

From the perspective of ethylene glycol inventory changes, the fourth quarter of last year reflected the accelerated decline of total inventory, including the dominant port inventory and invisible factory inventory. In the first quarter of this year, the dominant port inventory of ethylene glycol was further down, but the change of total inventory was relatively mild, which implied the rising state of invisible factory end inventory in this period. By stages, under the influence of import reduction in the fourth quarter, the total ethylene glycol inventory decreased by more than 700000 tons, of which the dominant port inventory decreased by more than 50 tons, and its proportion in the total ethylene glycol inventory decreased from 50% at the end of the third quarter to around 41%, and this proportion basically returned to the level at the end of 2019. In the first quarter of this year, the dominant port inventory of ethylene glycol was further declining. As of March 22, the main port inventory of East China had dropped to 635000 tons, more than 200000 tons lower than that at the end of last year. However, the total amount of ethylene glycol inventory in the same period had dropped by nearly 90000 tons to around 2 million tons, basically around 2.05 million tons, showing a relatively stable state. In fact, it also reflected the decline of dominant inventory of ethylene glycol The invisible inventory in the process of decreasing is in the state of increasing.

(3) The recovery of foreign plants coincides with the domestic production capacity

Judging from the changes of foreign devices, the capacity of the interruption reached a high point in February and fell back in March, but it was still higher than the level in January. From the perspective of plant distribution, the capacity interruption in North America accounted for about half of the total capacity in February and March, and the United States was the largest incremental source. From the actual situation, the cold wave was the direct cause of the previous ethylene glycol capacity interruption in the United States, but it has been restarted since March, and has been basically restored in the near future. As for the impact of domestic imports, we believe that the month on month increase of import volume in April is still the approximate time, but the substantial increase of North America’s supply may not occur until the end of April or even may.

The domestic ethylene glycol production level has been rising. At the same time, benefiting from the expected input of planned production capacity, the expectation of upward production is also further strengthened.

First of all, the rebound of ethylene glycol price and the expansion of production profit strongly promoted the enthusiasm of ethylene glycol production. In fact, with the rebound of ethylene glycol price, the profit level of either oil based ethylene glycol production or coal based ethylene glycol production has risen sharply. According to the data accounting, during this period, the maximum profit of oil based ethylene glycol per ton expanded to around us $200, while the maximum profit of coal based ethylene glycol per ton increased to around RMB 1500 per ton, all reaching a new high since 2019.

The elasticity of ethylene glycol production to price and profit is relatively large. With the expansion of profit, domestic ethylene glycol production has increased significantly. From the sub item point of view, the increase rate of oil to ethylene glycol production during the period was significantly higher than that of coal to ethylene glycol. The average operating rates of coal to ethylene glycol and oil to ethylene glycol increased by 8.2% and 13.8% respectively in March compared with January.

With the increase of glycol operation rate, the output level will rise to around 1 million tons in March. The total output of glycol in the first quarter is expected to be around 2.7 million tons. The monthly output and the total output in the first quarter will increase by 12.8% and 13.1% respectively.

Secondly, the expected input of planned production capacity will further strengthen the upward expectation of domestic production.

In terms of the short-term planned production capacity, the recent production of Shaanxi Weihua tends to be stable after the test run in mid March, and the extended oil plant will restart in late March; satellite petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical may achieve stable production in April; in addition, the test run of Jianyuan coal coke and Hubei sanning, which were postponed in the fourth quarter of last year, also exists in April to May. If the planned production capacity can be put into operation smoothly, the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity will increase again.

Domestic production will benefit from the investment of production capacity. Based on the schedule estimation of production capacity, it is estimated that the output increment brought by the new production capacity from April to June will be 130000 tons, 280000 tons and 300000 tons respectively; affected by the production capacity, the ethylene glycol output is expected to exceed 1.1 million tons in May, or further rise to around 1.2 million tons in June. Under the market expectation of increasing the production focus, the inflection point between supply and demand of ethylene glycol market will appear in the middle and late April at the earliest, and there will be a significant inventory accumulation in May.

(4) Conclusion and suggestion

The general view of terminal textile and clothing demand is “high growth under low base”. If the influence of base is excluded, the compound growth rate of domestic textile and clothing retail sales from January to February is basically around 0, but the compound growth rate of textile and clothing exports is still more than 10%. For the demand of terminal textile and clothing in the second quarter, we think the growth rate will have a significant downward trend. We expect that in the first half of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of domestic textiles and clothing will drop to 27-30%; the export of textiles and clothing will show a high momentum, and the re inventory process of foreign markets may continue to support the export of domestic textiles and clothing.

Polyester production continued to rise due to the expansion of production base and the increase of operating rate, which also provided a higher consumption base for ethylene glycol. The export of polyester products has recovered, but at present, the growth rate of export is relatively moderate, which means that under the environment of increasing polyester production, the digestion pressure of domestic market continues to increase. Polyester’s recent performance shows that the operating rate is continuously on the rise, but the production and sales remain at a low level. In this case, polyester inventory is being replenished, and the replenishment speed of inventory is also relatively fast. We expect that the quantile of polyester inventory will return to around 90% by mid April. We think that the improvement of production and sales or the regulation of supply is very important due to the pressure of inventory Necessary.

Ethylene glycol is still in the process of storage. In the fourth quarter of last year, both the dominant port inventory and the invisible factory inventory decreased significantly; since this year, the dominant port inventory has continued to decline, but the invisible factory inventory has actually increased.

In terms of glycol supply, the increase of import is relatively slow, but the direction of improvement is relatively clear; domestic production has benefited from price rebound and production profit recovery, at the same time, the investment of new capacity will further increase the process of domestic production improvement. In general, we believe that with the slow recovery of import volume and the upward growth of domestic production center, the inflection point between supply and demand of ethylene glycol will appear in the middle and late April at the earliest, and the obvious inventory accumulation may come in May.

Trading strategy: ethylene glycol presents high volatility, which may be more suitable for options to do price risk management; trading rhythm, in the first half of the second quarter, we are more optimistic about ethylene glycol, mainly due to the trend of ethylene glycol depopulation. The expansion of ethylene glycol supply is expected to bring about the continuous contraction of production profits. It is suggested to pay attention to ethylene glycol and crude oil, naphtha, etc., or Hedging opportunities between ethylene glycol and steam coal.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market showed a gradual downward trend in March, and the spot prices of various brands were reduced. As of April 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8983.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 37.15% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic market in March high callback. At the beginning of this month, it took advantage of the early international crude oil price rise, and was in the high shock operation for many years. Then, with the good cost side, the rise was blocked, and this month’s decline was concentrated between the 18th and the 26th. Now the price of propylene is stable, and some units are still under maintenance. In general, overseas production has recovered slightly, domestic inventory is low, current crude oil price is volatile, and downstream operation rate is acceptable, but the market is mostly cold, and propylene is still high in the near future. It is expected that the market will be stabilized due to the influence of crude oil.

March propylene market high down, PP cost side support general. At the beginning of this month, affected by the rapid resumption of work in China, the demand on the site expanded rapidly. According to reports, the overall average operating rate of domestic polypropylene plants was about 93% in the first quarter, which was at a historical high. Overseas market supply is still tight, there is a certain growth in export orders this month. However, in the latter half of the year, Dongming Petrochemical added 200000 tons / year of production capacity, plus 850000 tons / year of new production capacity in the first two months, the rapidly expanding supply is under pressure from domestic propylene prices. Downstream factories gradually conflict with high price orders, and they are not willing to accept the goods. Floor trading is not smooth, there is a price reduction operation at the end of the month.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 1, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 9216.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 14.92% compared with the same period last year. In March, fiber PP production was stable, accounting for about 13% of the total. The high price of goods affects the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods. In addition, there are more and more spunbonded non-woven fabric manufacturers entering the market. At present, the shipping resistance of traders is increasing, and the profit margin is generally expanded.

Melt blown materials, the market in early March to undertake raw materials rose and melt blown PP outside the double boost market and opened higher, after the demand did not improve and the whole month stagflation, spot price shock down. As of April 1, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 11000 yuan / ton. Basically back to the level before the rise. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable. The new situation in some areas of Yunnan has not effectively stimulated the demand for medical protective equipment, and the domestic demand for epidemic prevention materials has been fixed at a stable level. The overseas epidemic situation is still unclear, and many countries have reported a number of new coronal variant strains, so it is inevitable that the compulsory mask policy will be implemented for a long time. However, in March, the market performance of meltblown materials in the outer market was also average, and even jumeilai and other high melt fiber products were down in the first ten days. On the whole, the profit of melt blown fabric manufacturing market is not ideal, the excess capacity has been eliminated, and the melt blown PP market has entered a stable period.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: March domestic PP spot market trend fell mainly. The upstream propylene price recovered, but it is still high, and the support for PP cost side is acceptable. Recently, the market supply has expanded, the industry competition has intensified, and the high price spot trading is not good. In addition, the lack of positive feedback of demand under the high opening rate led to the unsatisfactory trend of PP this month. Now has entered the maintenance season, polymerization plant shipments are expected to shrink, it is expected that PP market trend or will be affected by the supply side and stop rising.

Commodity index: on March 30, the commodity index of polyacrylamide was 93.38, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 12.83% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 12.66% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data show that the ten days after the Spring Festival holiday in 2021 is the period of the highest market price up to now; affected by the sharp rise in the cost of acrylonitrile, the market price of polyacrylamide once rose by about 10%, and then gradually weakened. By the last week of March, the accumulated price reduction of two times was 300 yuan / ton, and this month it was reported to be 15950 yuan / ton. Since the 19th of this month, all water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province have stopped production for rectification according to the local environmental protection policy. Up to now, it has been nearly half a month. The inventory is fair and the supply of goods is sufficient. The current market is mainly stable. From March to 31, domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionicity 10-30) polyacrylamide cation quoted 14583.33 yuan / ton on the first day, which went up to 15316 yuan / ton on the 13th in a row, and then decreased slightly, closing at 15166.67 yuan / ton on the 31st daily, with a monthly increase of 4%.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, especially since the Spring Festival. The domestic price has reached the highest point in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 was 12100 yuan / ton, and the daily quotation on March 10 was 16500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4500 yuan / ton, with a range of 36%; however, due to the recent impact of the upstream price reduction, the price of 1 On the 5th, the price was reduced by 250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market quotation was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. On the 26th, Shanghai Secco cut the price by 300 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the price was reduced by about 100 yuan / ton. In March, the domestic mainstream market price was closed at 15900-15950 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the maintenance of domestic manufacturers has been delayed, and Haijiang’s products have been sold abroad, so the supply has increased, and the downstream has resistance to high prices, so the possibility of price rise is not great; main devices: Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a 130000 ton production line from March 22 to 29; Shandong Haijiang’s acrylonitrile products have gradually begun to be sold abroad, and about 90% of the units have started operation at present.

Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Around the 10th, Shandong’s civil gas market showed the most obvious increase. It began to fall continuously in the middle of the month and rebounded again at the end of the month. Affected by the changes in crude oil prices and downstream gas demand, the LPG market showed a significant rise and fall trend this month. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on March 1 was 3616 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the price was about 3983 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 10%. In the near future, crude oil rebounded and the price was obviously driven. However, the following weather became warmer, the demand was weak, and the future market of liquefied gas was weak, so its impact on the cost of water treatment products was not so prominent.

Downstream demand: from the Spring Festival holiday to the middle of March, the cost of polyacrylamide, as a downstream product, has increased significantly due to the impact of the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices. The water treatment engineering manufacturers are stopping production for rectification, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. The price of polyacrylamide is not strong. Due to the sufficient supply, the current price has dropped, and the price has returned in the middle of this month The price dropped by about 500 yuan / ton, and then dropped by another 100 yuan / ton in the last ten days. Moreover, some enterprises with weak strength are unable to support due to strong environmental inspection, strict requirements and high technical threshold.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, affected by the overall macroeconomic environment, the market of bulk raw materials is greatly affected by inflation and demand. In particular, the two sessions in 2021 will be “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” It is written into the government work report for the first time, striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutralization” by 2060. Under this background, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will also be improved. Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical requirements will be improved The operation threshold is constantly raised; the production stop and rectification actions are frequent, and the supply side can not avoid being affected. To sum up, combined with the background of inflation, the subsequent shutdown of enterprises under environmental protection inspection may lead to the gradual tension of supply, and the price is expected to rise. However, in the case of sufficient inventory, the price of polyacrylamide is mainly stable for the time being; with the extension of shutdown time and excessive inventory consumption, the production can not keep up, and perhaps the downstream procurement cost will gradually increase in the second, third and fourth quarters. However, it can not be ruled out that some manufacturers can not continue to support due to the long shutdown time. At present, there are some small factories in Henan Province which are not supported enough. It is suggested that the relevant manufacturers should start from the overall situation, improve the production technology level as soon as possible, and meet the requirements of environmental protection, which is the long-term plan for the survival and development of enterprises.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market price remained stable recently, and the average ex factory price of the domestic spandex market was stable at 67600 yuan / ton, up 114.60% year on year. The industry started at a high level of 90%, the supply of goods became more stable, some details were slightly tight, and the downstream terminal market was cautious in accepting orders. The actual transaction needs to be discussed in detail.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

Shandong: 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Jiangsu Province: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

The raw material PTMEG market is stable for the time being, and the BDO drop rate of the cost side is limited, which is still high on the whole. At present, the 1800 molecular weight supply is around 40000 yuan / T offered by the mainstream factories, and 35000-42000 yuan / T is referred for the real order negotiation. About 80% of the PTMEG industry started operation and maintained stable operation. In April, there will be more unit maintenance, including 135000 tons in Jiaxing Xiaoxing, 60000 tons in Hangzhou Sanlong and 50000 tons in Xinjiang Meike, 60000 tons in Panjin Changchun, and 40000 tons in Yizheng Dalian. The pure MDI market continued to decline. Most traders accompanied the shipment, and the market mainstream quotation continued to decline. At present, the market negotiation is at 23000-23500 yuan / ton, which is 1500-2000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The industry started at 720%, which is lower than that of last week.

Affected by the high consolidation of raw material market, the downstream terminal market demand is still cautious. However, in recent days, in the traditional market of China Textile City, polyester filament is used as the main raw material, and spandex is used as the main raw material. The transaction of summer women’s upper elastic fabric and spring and summer women’s trousers with spandex elastic fabric is partially smooth. The hanging sample of new elastic fabric in the traditional market is increased, and the listed varieties are increased. Among them, a number of polyester and ammonia elastic fabrics mainly made of women’s trousers have been on sale, and their transactions have shown a rising trend in recent days. The overall market trend is volatile and upward. DTY low elastic yarn 150D is a new positioning style local elastic cloth made of partial spandex yarn and 150D (DTY + POY) composite yarn inlaid with colorful silk. It is favored by purchasers of garment factories in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Shanghai.

Business analysts believe that the upstream cost side of the general role of support, downstream terminal market just need to buy, short-term stability of the spandex market.