1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the market price of TDI was slightly lowered this week, with the average price in East China at 16666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.91% compared with 17166.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week, and increased by 28.53% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

During the week, the domestic TDI market was weak. At the beginning of the week, the information of suppliers was complicated, and the mentality of the industry was tangled. The intraday offer was tentatively inclined to the high level, but the downstream follow-up was weak, and the high-level transaction resistance was large. The price of polyether is high, and the downstream sponge factories are under great pressure. Most enterprises choose to digest the initial inventory or purchase on demand. The enthusiasm of entering the market is weak and the purchase of TDI is limited. As of the 30th, TDI’s domestic goods offer in East China market refers to 15000-16000 yuan / ton, while Shanghai’s offers refer to about 16500 yuan / ton.

This week, the market of toluene was weak, and the price trend was down. As of 30 days, the domestic average price was about 3250 yuan / ton. The port inventory of toluene was high, and the pressure to remove the warehouse was still in place. The downstream demand was general, the negotiation atmosphere was not active, and the international oil price fell to the lowest price in five months. Affected by this, the quotation of toluene in the domestic market fell and the market support was limited. It is expected that the domestic toluene market will continue to be weak in the future Potential operation.

3、 Future forecast

According to TDI, the market is weak at present, and the market data is weak.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to decline in October. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8400 yuan / ton, down 0.36% compared with the price of 8430 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.86%.

The domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend continued to decline slightly in October. So far, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiated in various regions is 7600-8400 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid demand is general, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is mainly down. The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, the hydrofluoric acid field devices are running stably, the manufacturers report that the recent delivery situation is not good, and the on-site price is lower. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 7600-8200 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 7600-8500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend has mainly declined, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, some manufacturers report that the domestic hydrofluoric acid transaction situation is poor, and the hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite decreased slightly in October. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2627.78 yuan / ton, and the price dropped slightly by 1.46% in October. The domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, the downstream market did not improve, and the trend of fluorite price decreased slightly. As of the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was 2400-2600 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of fluorite price was a negative factor in hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price decreased slightly.

In October, the market trend of domestic refrigerants dropped slightly, the demand of domestic refrigerant industry did not significantly improve, the start-up of refrigerant industry remained low, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid decreased slightly. The foreign economic development is general, but the refrigerant terminal export has not changed much. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the after-sales demand for maintenance is weak. On the whole, the foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price drops slightly. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 12500-15000 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market trend is declining, but the automobile market industry continues to be depressed, the demand is weak, the market trading center is low, and the transaction atmosphere is light. With sufficient supply of goods in the market and the impact of new production capacity entering the market, the competition is fierce, the supply side gradually forms a negative situation, the price fluctuates at a low level, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls slightly.

On the whole, hydrofluoric acid market is mainly declining, and the upstream raw material fluorite market is weak, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid from business club, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may maintain a low level.

1、 Price trend

As of October 28, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 15333.33 yuan / ton, down 1.08% from last Wednesday, 0.43% month on month, and 33.81% lower than the beginning of the year.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of refrigerant R134a declined slightly. The price of hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene at the raw material end is weak and consolidation, which weakens the cost support for refrigerants, while the domestic market is weak, the automobile industry is weak, and the buying gas is flat. The refrigerant R134a is negative. The export market has not improved significantly. The overall transaction environment of the market continues to be depressed. Traders are cautious in taking goods, manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure is increasing, and there is a risk of price reduction. The trend of R134a is weak and stable. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of October 23, the mainstream price of refrigerant R134a market is about 15000-18000 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is low.

In terms of raw materials, on October 28, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The ex factory prices of domestic manufacturers remained stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was general, and the on-site supply was normal, which was affected by the stable price of fluorite. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will remain low in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the raw material end support of refrigerant R134a is weakened, the terminal demand is sluggish, the transaction center of gravity is down, and the overall performance is slightly depressed. It is expected that R134a refrigeration will continue to operate in a weak and stable manner in the short term.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

On October 27, epichlorohydrin market was weak. As of October 27, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11266.67 yuan / ton, down 0.88% compared with the previous trading day, and 0.59% lower than that of September 27. At present, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, mainly cautious and wait-and-see, the delivery pressure of shippers, the focus of new single negotiation is low, and the market atmosphere is weak.

Upstream propylene, on October 26, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, with some enterprises’ prices rising and falling slightly this week. On Friday, only a few enterprises’ prices fell slightly. Most enterprises continued to hold steady, but fell about 200 yuan / ton from 17 to 19, a small range from 20 to 23, and an obvious downward trend appeared again at the weekend (October 24 and 25), and 200 yuan / ton on the 26th At present, the market turnover is between 7075 and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7100 yuan / ton. Now the pressure of shipment is increasing.

For epoxy resin downstream, on October 26, the epoxy resin Market interval was adjusted and operated. The cost side change was limited, and the spot supply was slightly tight. The downstream small orders just needed to follow up, and the actual orders were limited.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of epichlorohydrin of the business agency, the price of propylene raw material has fallen in the near future, the cost support has been weakened, and the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is general. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance for the specific trend.

In recent years, the domestic butadiene market has been pushing up continuously. The main manufacturers have raised their ex factory quotations several times in a week. The traders have been keeping up with the rising mentality, and the butadiene market quotation in some regions has exceeded 10000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, since the second half of 2020, the domestic butadiene price has risen steadily, and the whole industrial chain has been red. On July 1, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 3445 yuan / ton. As of October 26, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 9200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 167.01% in the cycle, reaching a new high point in the year.

What is butadiene going through in the second half of 2020

At the beginning of July, the closing prices of butadiene in Asia, Europe and the United States increased intermittently. By September 2020, the number of days of increase in external and internal prices of butadiene reached 12 days. In October, the closing price of the external market has risen for 10 days. Taking CFR China as an example, CFR China closed at 365-375 US dollars / ton on July 1 and 1035-1045 US dollars / ton on October 23. The price rose by 670 yuan / ton, or 183.56%. The good news from the external market injected a boost to the long-term sluggish domestic market of butadiene in the first half of the year. During this period, traders actively followed the rise, creating a situation in which the supply of butadiene was difficult to obtain, and the domestic butadiene price continued to rise.

Regional closing price on October 7, closing price on October 21

FOB Korea 325-335 USD / T 1015-1025 USD / T 690 USD / T

CFR China $365-375 / T $1035-1045 / T $670 / T

FOB Rotterdam 125-135 USD / T 645-655 USD / T 520 USD / T

FD northwest Europe 245-255 euro / ton 515-525 euro / ton 270 euro / ton

In terms of major production enterprises, taking Sinopec sales companies as an example, according to the monitoring data of business agencies, the external supply price of Sinopec sales companies was 3600 yuan / ton on July 1, reaching the lowest point in the year. As of October 26, the external supply price of Sinopec sales companies was 9200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 155.6%. Other major production enterprises in Northeast China, such as Fushun Petrochemical and Liaotong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., have been using butadiene for their own use for a long period of time and will not be exported temporarily. In addition, on October 20, Sinopec central China sales branch’s 130000 T / a ethylene plant was shut down for maintenance, which seriously affected the social inventory of butadiene. Other enterprises, such as Liaoyang Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli and Inner Mongolia Jiutai, have been rising all the way. For a time, the butadiene market situation is difficult to control, and there is no lack of traders’ random quotation.

Adjustment of external supply price of butadiene in Sinopec production enterprises:

Price of enterprise on July 1 (yuan / ton) price on October 26 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)

Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. 3600 9200 6600

Sinopec Shanghai 3600 9200 6600

Yangzi Petrochemical Company 3600 9200 6600

Sinopec 3600 9200 6600

Maoming Petrochemical Company 3600 9200 6600

Guangzhou Petrochemical Company 3600 9200 6600

Wuhan ethylene 3600 9200 6600

On the other hand, affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene has increased significantly. The good linkage of the whole industrial chain has promoted the butadiene market to rise again and again. In the second half of 2020, the demand for rubber will recover strongly. The downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber will start to recover gradually, and the output will gradually rise. The demand for synthetic rubber will form a support. Taking the domestic tire production as an example, the year-on-year data of domestic tire and external tire output decreased by 27.2% at the beginning of the year, and gradually rose to 5.5% at the end of September. It can be seen that the recovery of domestic rubber downstream is great. According to the business news agency, from January to February 2020, the domestic rubber tire outer tire output was 80.865 million, a year-on-year decrease of 27.2%; from January to June 2020, the cumulative output of domestic rubber tire outer tire was 356.978 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%; from January to September of 2020, the cumulative output of domestic rubber tire outer tire was 582.541 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%.

The latest price and fluctuation of synthetic rubber downstream of butadiene:

Price of products on July 1 (yuan / ton) price on October 26 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)

Styrene butadiene rubber 8308 11091 33.50%

NBR: 13866 17833 28.61%

Br 8200 10580 29.02%

Up to now, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and gradually transiting to a stable finishing state. The external price continued to rise at a high level, while the domestic market was weak. The natural rubber futures strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continued to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic butadiene market would be mainly sorted out at a high level in the short term.