In recent years, the domestic butadiene market has been pushing up continuously. The main manufacturers have raised their ex factory quotations several times in a week. The traders have been keeping up with the rising mentality, and the butadiene market quotation in some regions has exceeded 10000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, since the second half of 2020, the domestic butadiene price has risen steadily, and the whole industrial chain has been red. On July 1, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 3445 yuan / ton. As of October 26, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 9200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 167.01% in the cycle, reaching a new high point in the year.
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What is butadiene going through in the second half of 2020
At the beginning of July, the closing prices of butadiene in Asia, Europe and the United States increased intermittently. By September 2020, the number of days of increase in external and internal prices of butadiene reached 12 days. In October, the closing price of the external market has risen for 10 days. Taking CFR China as an example, CFR China closed at 365-375 US dollars / ton on July 1 and 1035-1045 US dollars / ton on October 23. The price rose by 670 yuan / ton, or 183.56%. The good news from the external market injected a boost to the long-term sluggish domestic market of butadiene in the first half of the year. During this period, traders actively followed the rise, creating a situation in which the supply of butadiene was difficult to obtain, and the domestic butadiene price continued to rise.
Regional closing price on October 7, closing price on October 21
FOB Korea 325-335 USD / T 1015-1025 USD / T 690 USD / T
CFR China $365-375 / T $1035-1045 / T $670 / T
FOB Rotterdam 125-135 USD / T 645-655 USD / T 520 USD / T
FD northwest Europe 245-255 euro / ton 515-525 euro / ton 270 euro / ton
In terms of major production enterprises, taking Sinopec sales companies as an example, according to the monitoring data of business agencies, the external supply price of Sinopec sales companies was 3600 yuan / ton on July 1, reaching the lowest point in the year. As of October 26, the external supply price of Sinopec sales companies was 9200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 155.6%. Other major production enterprises in Northeast China, such as Fushun Petrochemical and Liaotong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., have been using butadiene for their own use for a long period of time and will not be exported temporarily. In addition, on October 20, Sinopec central China sales branch’s 130000 T / a ethylene plant was shut down for maintenance, which seriously affected the social inventory of butadiene. Other enterprises, such as Liaoyang Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli and Inner Mongolia Jiutai, have been rising all the way. For a time, the butadiene market situation is difficult to control, and there is no lack of traders’ random quotation.
Adjustment of external supply price of butadiene in Sinopec production enterprises:
Price of enterprise on July 1 (yuan / ton) price on October 26 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)
Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. 3600 9200 6600
Sinopec Shanghai 3600 9200 6600
Yangzi Petrochemical Company 3600 9200 6600
Sinopec 3600 9200 6600
Maoming Petrochemical Company 3600 9200 6600
Guangzhou Petrochemical Company 3600 9200 6600
Wuhan ethylene 3600 9200 6600
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On the other hand, affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene has increased significantly. The good linkage of the whole industrial chain has promoted the butadiene market to rise again and again. In the second half of 2020, the demand for rubber will recover strongly. The downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber will start to recover gradually, and the output will gradually rise. The demand for synthetic rubber will form a support. Taking the domestic tire production as an example, the year-on-year data of domestic tire and external tire output decreased by 27.2% at the beginning of the year, and gradually rose to 5.5% at the end of September. It can be seen that the recovery of domestic rubber downstream is great. According to the business news agency, from January to February 2020, the domestic rubber tire outer tire output was 80.865 million, a year-on-year decrease of 27.2%; from January to June 2020, the cumulative output of domestic rubber tire outer tire was 356.978 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%; from January to September of 2020, the cumulative output of domestic rubber tire outer tire was 582.541 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%.
The latest price and fluctuation of synthetic rubber downstream of butadiene:
Price of products on July 1 (yuan / ton) price on October 26 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)
Styrene butadiene rubber 8308 11091 33.50%
NBR: 13866 17833 28.61%
Br 8200 10580 29.02%
Up to now, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and gradually transiting to a stable finishing state. The external price continued to rise at a high level, while the domestic market was weak. The natural rubber futures strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continued to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic butadiene market would be mainly sorted out at a high level in the short term.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |