In 2020, the carbon black industry has withstood the test of the epidemic, and production has gradually recovered from the second half of the year, ushering in the “little spring” of market demand growth, and the profitability of enterprises has also been improved. But on the whole, there is a lack of high-end products, the profitability is still below the average level of the industry, and most of the exports are low-end products, with both volume and price falling. ”

From March to April, the focus of price negotiation shifted downward, accumulating 600-800 yuan / ton. After the middle and late April, the domestic and export sales of tires were under pressure, and some tire enterprises successively lowered their plans to start or save, which was constrained by the weakening demand and the bad mood of carbon black market. However, the carbon black industry still had a strong price stability mentality under the support of high coal tar.

Near the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm of deep processing enterprises to prepare raw materials for coal tar has increased. In addition, under the environmental protection policies of Shanxi, Hebei and other regions, coke enterprises limit production, coal tar supply is in short supply, and under the situation of tight goods and rising prices, the new orders of coal tar have increased more than the market expectation. As of April 28, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co., Ltd. coal tar auction, coal chemical transaction 3750 yuan / ton, 450 yuan / ton higher than last week’s price; Hebei Huafeng high temperature coal tar auction, the final transaction price of 3675 yuan / ton, cash factory, 260 yuan / ton higher than last week. In April, the cumulative increase of coal tar in Shandong and Hebei was 213 yuan / ton and 315 yuan / ton respectively, while that in Shanxi was 635 yuan / ton.

Manufacturers: at present, the overall construction of the carbon black industry is fairly good. After the implementation of orders in April, the inventory of carbon black manufacturers has been digested obviously. Recently, due to the impact of environmental protection, some carbon black manufacturers have stopped temporarily. At present, due to the superposition of factors such as goods preparation before May Day, bullish purchasing in the later period, and maintenance of carbon black manufacturers, the supply and demand situation of carbon black market has changed significantly, and some enterprises are in short stock. According to the feedback from the industry, the price of a large carbon black factory in Hongdong, Shanxi has increased by 100 yuan. At present, vehicles are queuing up for goods, and there is no stock; A carbon black plant in Hejin, Shanxi, was out of stock yesterday; A carbon black factory in Qingxu County, Shanxi Province was out of stock yesterday; The current inventory of a carbon black plant in Jishan, Shanxi is low; The inventory of a carbon black factory in Shahe, Hebei Province is low; The inventory of a carbon black factory in Dezhou, Shandong Province is low; It is reported that the four lines of Jining factory, a large domestic carbon black enterprise, have been overhauled for 10-12 days, and the commonly used brands have been out of stock.

Downstream: this week, the tire industry started a slight decline, but the overall still high, higher than the same period; The semi steel tire market continued to be stable, the goods delivery of all steel tire was not smooth, and the inventory increased; Tricycle tire performance is flat, carbon black is purchased on demand. Other products, color masterbatch and other industries showed mediocre performance. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the trend of carbon black, and the inventory of most enterprises was at the lowest limit. This week, the supply of carbon black market was delayed, especially before the festival, the market fluctuated, and some brand businesses scrambled for goods. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the market, and the enterprises were slightly passive in preparing goods.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of TDI in East China was weak in April. The average price of TDI was 16750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 15666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and decreased by 1083.33 yuan / ton, down 6.47%. As of the 30th, the domestic TDI market offers reference 14300-14500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 14500-14700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

In the first ten days of April, the TDI market was stable and down, the market was stable and slightly moving, the atmosphere in the market was light, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm was not high, and a small number just needed to follow up. As of the 15th, in East China, the reference price of domestic goods with tickets was 15300-15500 yuan / ton, and the reference price of Shanghai goods with tickets was 15700-15800 yuan / ton. In late April, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline, the offer of goods holders continued to decline, the price of dealers coexisted with high and low price, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was not high, the purchase intention was low, and the market price continued to decline.

The upstream toluene market continued to rise, up 4.32% in the month, from 5461.00 yuan / ton to 5697.00 yuan / ton. Affected by the high volatility of crude oil price, the rise of external price supported the price rise of toluene spot market, but the downstream follow-up was weak, the demand side was weak, the rise of toluene was limited, and the future market rose slightly.

According to the TDI data analyst of business agency, the TDI market is currently in a stalemate. The trading atmosphere in the market is weak. The quotation in the distribution market is mainly on the lookout. The replenishment in the downstream before the festival is coming to an end, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the demand side. It is expected that the TDI market will be on the lookout in the future and pay attention to the guidance of other factories.

On April 29, the cryolite commodity index was 77.73, down 0.61 points from yesterday, down 23.20% from 101.21 points (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.15% from 66.35 points, the lowest point on September 5, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

The market price of cryolite in Henan was down, with an average price of 6400 yuan / ton on the 29th, the same as the price at the beginning of the month, according to the data from the business news agency. At present, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 6300-6500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 6000-6800 yuan / ton. The plant in the factory is in normal operation, and the inventory is acceptable. Most of the downstream products are purchased on demand, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the market.

In terms of downstream aluminum industry, the recent market is relatively strong and upward, aluminum supply is limited, consumption has improved seasonally, social inventory has decreased, supply gap has gradually expanded, and the future market continues to improve. As of the 29th, the average price of aluminum market in East China was 18740.00 yuan / ton.

Analysts of cryolite products from business society believe that: at present, the supply of cryolite market is slightly tightened, the demand is stable, and the downstream market trend continues to rise, which effectively supports the cryolite industry. The manufacturers’ mentality is mainly wait-and-see. In the later stage, the cryolite market may be temporarily stabilized, and the specific attention to market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agencies, the average domestic phosphoric acid price on April 28 was 5283.33 yuan / ton, up 1.93% compared with the price of 5183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.93%, up 4.97% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Phosphoric acid market rose slightly in April, with an increase of about 2%. In the first ten days, the phosphoric acid market was relatively stable. Since the middle of the year, the price began to rise slightly, and after the increase, it remained stable. The market reaction was observed. Taking wengfuda as an example, the price rose 100 yuan / ton in the month, with little fluctuation. The manufacturers mostly shipped with stable price psychology. The rise of phosphoric acid Market in this month mainly due to the continuous preparation of raw materials in yellow phosphorus Market before the festival, spot tension and price rise in the market, driving the trend of phosphoric acid price. However, the demand has not improved significantly. Near May 1 holiday, the downstream pre-festival stock has basically ended, with few new orders and stable market. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of April 28, the price of Sichuan Province is 4900-5650 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing is about 4800 yuan / ton, that of Hubei is about 5200-5500 yuan / ton, Tianjin is about 5900 yuan / ton, Hebei is about 5500 yuan / ton, and Guangxi region is 5200-5320 yuan / ton, In April, phosphoric acid prices rose steadily in various regions.

region product Specifications date Price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan phosphoric acid Content: 85% industrial grade April 28th 4900-5650

Hubei Province phosphoric acid Content: 85% industrial grade April 28th 5200-5500

Yunnan phosphoric acid Content: 85% industrial grade April 28th 5000-5200

Guangxi phosphoric acid Content: 85% industrial grade April 28th 5200-5320

Beijing Tianjin area phosphoric acid Content: 85% industrial grade April 28th 4800-5900

Phosphate rock, April 28, the reference price of phosphate rock is 480.00, up 7.46% compared with April 1 (446.67). Near labor day, downstream market or will usher in pre Festival stock up. Market investment atmosphere is good to support the positive attitude of the industry. Therefore, analysts of phosphorus ore in business society believe that the market price of phosphorus ore will be strong and high in the near future, supported by pre saving stock, Prices in individual regions are expected to continue to be explored.

Yellow phosphorus, April 28, yellow phosphorus reference price is 17733.33, up 4.93% compared with April 1 (16900.00). Due to environmental factors, Yunnan factory parking, yellow phosphorus spot is relatively tight, combined with downstream pre-saving goods, the price on site rose, and the new order transaction price is higher. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable and upward in the short term.

The downstream ammonium phosphate, currently the raw material of monoammonium phosphate is still at a high level, and the downstream goods are generally transported. The domestic rate of construction of diammonium phosphate is low and the demand is insufficient. It is expected that the market of monoammonium phosphate will be stable or there is room for rise in the short term. The main reason is that the ammonium phosphate will continue to be stabilized and the price will not fluctuate too much.

3、 Post market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus of raw materials continued to rise in April, driving the price trend of phosphoric acid market, but the demand side was not enough. The downstream pre-festival stock was basically closed, with few new orders and stable short-term market.

On April 6, gehonglin, President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said: “recently, relevant departments of the state have studied the implementation plan of carbon peak in nonferrous metal industry (hereinafter referred to as the” scheme “), and are seeking opinions from industry associations and enterprises《 The plan initially proposes that the non-ferrous metal industry should strive to achieve the peak carbon by 2025 and reduce carbon by 40% by 2040, which will be at least five years ahead of the national peak carbon. ” Setting specific carbon peak targets for the industry will force enterprises to strictly control new capacity and adjust the existing capacity layout.

The relevant departments in China have repeatedly emphasized that the capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be strictly controlled with the capacity of 45million tons of “ceiling”. According to relevant data, by the beginning of April, the annual operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 39.44 million tons, the effective built capacity was 43.59 million tons / year, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China was 90.5%. At present, there is not much space for new capacity investment, while the operating rate of existing capacity is on the high side, so there is little space for output increase. Since the beginning of this year, the market’s worry about oversupply has weakened, while the worry about supply shortage after next year has gradually increased.

Since the development and Reform Commission of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued several safeguard measures (Draft for consultation) to ensure the completion of the energy consumption double control objectives in the 14th five year plan, several electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia have successively reduced production, involving about 300000 tons of production capacity. By the end of February, Inner Mongolia had an operating capacity of 5.98 million tons, with a production reduction of about 5%. Similar to Inner Mongolia, the ecological environment of Xinjiang is fragile in China, and the power link of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is mainly thermal power production. At the end of February, the operation capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang was 6.18 million tons, which exceeded Inner Mongolia. On April 13, it was rumored that Xinjiang would limit production to some aluminum enterprises, and the aluminum price rose to 18000 yuan / ton for a time. Although many parties have confirmed that the main aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang have not yet received the notice of production reduction, the aluminum price has not fallen. Xinjiang’s policy of reducing production may be on the way.

In addition to reducing the existing operating capacity, the difficulty of new capacity landing also worries the market that the supply will be further tightened in the future. In early February, Inner Mongolia development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a notice to adjust some industry price policies and power market trading policies. Among them, since February 10, 2021, the self-contained power plant pays policy cross subsidy according to the spontaneous self-use power consumption. The collection standards of Mengxi and Mengdong power grid are respectively 0.01 yuan and 0.02 yuan per kilowatt hour (including tax). The basic electricity price policy of 3.39 minutes per kilowatt hour in the electrolytic aluminum industry in Mengxi area is cancelled, and the reverse step transmission and distribution price policy of Mengxi power grid is cancelled. Through the price adjustment, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has been continuously improved. According to the original plan, 1.35 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation in Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2022. However, it is doubtful whether the new capacity can be put into operation as planned by the government through administrative and market adjustment measures to restrict the expansion of Inner Mongolia production capacity. In addition to Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have issued new capacity projects that are prohibited from electrolytic aluminum industry, which are replaced but not completed or will be put on hold.

Under the condition of limited supply of aluminum, consumption has improved seasonally, and the social inventory of aluminum has declined rapidly. On April 15, the social inventory data of major consumer places such as Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Nanhai and Gongyi published by SMM showed that the total weekly inventory was nearly 45000 tons, and the total inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. Globally, LME inventories have also continued to decline since late March. With the sustained recovery of manufacturing industry in Europe and America, the demand for industrial products has recovered. Since April, the water rise of Europe and Alcoa has reached the highest since June 2019 and may 2018 respectively. Tight supply in the spot market also boosted long-term confidence.

Looking forward to the second quarter, we believe that domestic aluminum demand will still improve seasonally. Meanwhile, with the launch of vaccination and economic stimulus plans, overseas demand will also rise simultaneously. From the supply side, with China’s aluminum industry speeding up the implementation of the carbon peak target and the promotion of the “double control” policy of local government energy consumption, the aluminum market is facing a situation of tight supply. China’s aluminum production accounts for about 60% of the world’s total. China’s efforts to curb carbon emissions have affected the global market nerves and laid the groundwork for a substantial rise in aluminum prices. We expect that the domestic inventory will continue to be removed in the second quarter, the supply gap will gradually expand in the future, aluminum price will be easy to rise and fall, the price center will continue to move up, and aluminum price will even impact the 20000 yuan / ton level（ Author: Dongwu futures)