This week, the domestic liquid ammonia Market accelerated downward. Liquid ammonia continued the decline in the previous two weeks, and the decline deepened this week. According to the monitoring of business society, liquid ammonia fell by 12% in August and 7.53% this week (8.23-26).

Previously, under the influence of enterprise maintenance and domestic shortage, liquid ammonia first experienced a soaring market in mid and late July. However, the good time is not long. Since the end of July, the price of liquid ammonia has continued to decline. On the one hand, the epidemic has led to poor traffic and inventory backlog. On the other hand, the high opening rate of enterprises has led to a surge in output. Without any favorable demand, liquid ammonia fell again and again. Up to now, the price of liquid ammonia in China is 4000-4200 yuan / ton, and it has fallen below 4000 yuan in some areas.

On the cost side, liquid ammonia deviates from the upstream coal market. Due to the increase of cost pressure and the downward impact of liquid ammonia price, the profits of ammonia enterprises have shrunk sharply, and now they are hovering on the edge of loss. The domestic coal market continues to be hot. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of August 26, the price of thermal coal rose by 5.29% this week. At present, the price of thermal coal is close to 1100 yuan / ton（ (see figure above)

On the supply side, in mid and late August, domestic ammonia enterprises ushered in a centralized production resumption period. Previously, many sets of units were overhauled in various places, and units in the maintenance period were started in Shandong, Hebei, Ningxia, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, with a significant increase in market supply. More importantly, in the early July, affected by the domestic epidemic, the traffic was poor, the shipment of ammonia enterprises decreased, and the manufacturer’s inventory continued to rise, forcing the price of ammonia enterprises to fall again and again. In the first four working days of this week, some enterprises fell by 500 yuan / ton.

On the demand side, urea continued to decline in mid and late August. According to the monitoring of business society, the decline deepened this week, with a weekly decline of 5.45%. Weak demand side is the main reason for the decline of urea. After entering August, the domestic agricultural demand for urea has basically ended, the procurement has slowed down, and the increment of industrial demand is also insufficient. The recession on the demand side has led to the continuous accumulation of industrial inventory, the continuous price reduction of manufacturers and the pessimistic downward market.

In the future, the supply pressure of domestic ammonia is still obvious, but at present, the price is low, the upstream cost surges, the enterprise pressure increases significantly, and the demand side. It is expected that the seasonal increment space of compound fertilizer will be limited in September, and the agricultural and industrial demand will still be weak. Therefore, it is difficult to be optimistic about the price of liquid ammonia. However, considering the deviation of cost, it is not ruled out that the manufacturers will reduce the load next, On the whole, the bottom of the market is not far away, but it will take time to reverse.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 23, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the price on August 16. Compared with the price on August 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 7100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 4.23%.

Recently, the domestic n-propanol market has been stable, with overall stable consolidation and operation. At present, the n-propanol plant is under normal operation, the contract user orders are mainly, the downstream just needs to be purchased, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is acceptable. At present, the trend of the secondary market of n-propanol is mostly wait-and-see, and the adjustment is made within the range with reference to the prices of large manufacturers. Because the dealers and traders have reservations about the prices, it is difficult to monitor the commodity prices. The specific prices are negotiated on the basis of actual documents. In addition, the quotations in each region are also different, and the prices are for reference only. At present, as of August 23, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 6700-7000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is around 8000-8500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol is 7400 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that a week ago, up 4.23% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the recent external ethylene market showed a downward trend. On August 20, the European ethylene market quoted FD northwest Europe at US $1194-1205 / ton, down US $100 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe at US $1130-1138 / ton, down US $37 / ton. On August 20, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $840-858 / ton, up US $5 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general. On August 20, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $926-936 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $956-966 / ton, down US $5 / ton. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia have mainly fallen.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the demand of downstream users of n-propanol is relatively stable, the demand side changes little in the short term, and the domestic factories start normally. Therefore, the analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the later stage, the market of n-propanol continues to operate stably, which does not rule out that individual shippers adjust their prices narrowly according to their own inventory.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 24, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 34330 yuan / ton. Compared with August 17 (organosilicon DMC reference average price of 31733 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2597 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.19%, and 3664 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.96%, compared with August 1 (organosilicon DMC reference average price of 30666 yuan / ton).

Since the beginning of this week, the domestic silicone DMC market has continued to operate at a high level. At present, the spot of silicone DMC in monomer factories is tight, and the shortage of raw materials in middle and downstream enterprises is serious, especially in Guangdong. At present, it is difficult to find a single order in the downstream, and the closure of large factories is common. The “competitive sales” mode was opened in the spot production of individual factories. When it was close to the weekend last week, The refined auction price of a large factory is as high as 36000 yuan / ton. As soon as the price comes out, it boosts the confidence of spot traders, the intention to support the price is more obvious, and the reluctance to sell on the floor is also higher. At present, as of August 24, the average ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC is 34330 yuan / ton, which also breaks the market high of last year and sets a record high since 2019.

On the upstream side, recently, silicon prices hit new highs and kept breaking the historical price. Shanghai 441# metal silicon exceeded 20000 yuan / ton. As of August 23, the national metal silicon quotation was 20450 yuan / ton, an increase of 34.84% compared with August 1 (15166.67 yuan / ton). From the perspective of supply and demand, the rain in the south is less than expected, and the problem of power restriction has not been alleviated. The average monthly output of Yunnan is 10000 tons lower than that in previous years. Due to the tight supply of raw silica, the operating rate in Xinjiang has also decreased. In addition, the process of safety rectification and resumption of production in large factories in Xinjiang is slow, and the output has also decreased. Due to environmental protection inspection, the operating rate in some areas is not high; The downstream is in short supply. Most enterprises maintain just needed procurement. Some customers are forced by production pressure to accept orders at high prices, mostly on the sidelines. Affected by the epidemic abroad, factories reduce production and stop production, and silicon exports increase.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the domestic silicone DMC spot is tight, which supports the strong market quotation. In the short term, the overall market will operate at a high level. However, in the long term, the downstream is under high prices, and the cost pressure increases greatly. Watch carefully. The high prices may also affect the operation status of downstream enterprises, so the demand may also be affected. Therefore, the silicone DMC analyst of business society believes that in the short term, Domestic silicone DMC mainly operates in high stability. In the long term, the market will gradually return to calm.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (August 23): 785.00 yuan / ton

On August 23, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.29%, compared with the quotation on August 20, and 80.46% compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the downstream formic acid market is also rising steadily, and the downstream demand is strong, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average quotation price is about 800 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of August 20, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.01% from the beginning of the week, 3.09% from the beginning of the month and 0.4% from the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of August 20, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 20666.67 yuan / ton, up 0.81% from the beginning of the week, flat from the beginning of the month, and up 25.25% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of refrigerant R22 rose this week, continuing the rise last week. The market of raw materials hydrofluoric acid and chloroform rebounded and rose, and the cost side was good. In addition, there were not many quotas, the manufacturer’s supply was tight, which supported the bullish R22 market. The increase in the offer of the cargo holder was about 500-1000 yuan / ton, and there was little room for transaction negotiation. However, the downstream market started to slide down in the off-season, and the demand was not high, so the demand side was weak or restrained some of the increase. By the end of the weekend, the market quotation of R22 was mostly in the range of 16500-17500 yuan / ton, about 16500 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 16500-17000 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 17000-17500 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 16500-17500 yuan / ton in Guangzhou. Prices in various places have increased steadily.

This week, the market price of refrigerant R134a increased slightly, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid increased slightly, the cost support became stronger, the start-up pressure of refrigerant manufacturers fell, the supply of goods was tight, coupled with poor profits, and the willingness to support the market was strong. Although it was difficult to improve the demand in the off-season, the cost side boosted unilaterally, and the R134a market was strong. By the end of the weekend, the market quotation of R134a was mostly in the range of 19500-23000 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang was about 19500-23000 yuan / ton, that of Hunan was about 20000-20500 yuan / ton, and that of Guangzhou was about 19000-20000 yuan / ton. The prices in various places rose steadily.

region R22 (yuan / ton) R134a (yuan / ton) date

Zhejiang region 16500-17000 19500-23000 August 20th

Shandong region sixteen thousand and five hundred 19800-21000 August 20th

Guangzhou area 16500-17500 19000-20000 August 20th

Hunan region 17000-17500 20000-20500 August 20th

Jiangsu region seventeen thousand 21500-23000 August 20th

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose this week. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated by various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid has remained 9500-10000 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price, and the actual transaction market on the floor is weak. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is still rising slightly. Recently, supported by the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, the price trend on the floor has risen.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerant analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw materials is rising, the cost support is strong, refrigerant enterprises are tight and reluctant to sell, and the price rises. Although the demand in the off-season is weak, it is difficult to find good benefits, R22 quota support is not easy to decline, while R134a’s profit is poor, and there may be a slight increase expectation out of stop loss psychology.