The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, the weather turned cold, and the asphalt demand of terminal road engineering remained low, but the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the cost side promoted the domestic asphalt price upward. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the asphalt price was 2577 yuan / ton on February 5, up 1.68 yuan from the beginning of the week.

On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States has led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. Moreover, the sharp decline in US commercial crude oil inventories in the past two weeks has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices. International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, with WTI crude oil up 8.91% and Brent crude oil up 7.81%.

Most refineries in Northeast and North China stopped production or changed production, the supply of asphalt decreased, and the market price remained stable. The demand for asphalt in East China is general. Refineries reduce the output of asphalt. Refineries in South China have stable production, stable demand release and stable market price. In Southwest China, the market supply was slightly tight, which led to the rise of the mainstream transaction price. In the near future, major asphalt refineries are mainly selling at stable prices, while asphalt prices are mainly supported by crude oil prices.

Analysts from business news agency believe that after the international crude oil price rises sharply, it is likely to maintain a high level, and it is less likely to continue to explore the high level. As the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, domestic asphalt demand is at a low level, and domestic asphalt price is expected to be mainly stable.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the market of acetic anhydride rose this week, and the price of acetic anhydride rose again before the festival. As of February 8, the price of acetic anhydride was 8400.00 yuan / ton, up 3.28% from 8133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of February.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid is rising this week, and the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride is rising. With the coming of the Spring Festival, acetic acid enterprises stop to reduce the load more, the operating rate of acetic acid is low, the supply of acetic acid is insufficient, the shortage of acetic acid increases, the price of acetic acid rises, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rises.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that the methanol price first fell and then rose this week. Although the methanol price still fell slightly, the methanol price stopped falling and rebounded, the methanol market gradually recovered, the driving force of acetic anhydride cost rising and acetic anhydride rising increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that since February, acetic acid prices have risen sharply, methanol prices have stopped falling and rebounded, acetic anhydride costs have risen, and acetic anhydride’s rising momentum has increased. The downstream customers are more resistant to the high price of acetic anhydride, and the price of acetic anhydride rises; the continuous rise of raw materials of acetic anhydride stimulates the price of acetic anhydride to rise, and the price of acetic anhydride rises again before the festival.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market was active in early February, and the overall price level increased significantly. As of February 9, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 13333.33 yuan / ton, up 4.99% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, the current domestic caprolactam price is rising rapidly, the market is positive. In terms of raw material pure benzene, the high inventory of enterprises in the early stage emptied rapidly, and the pure benzene inventory of East China port continued to decline. In addition, the unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some units in East China led to the decrease of supply and the rapid rise of prices. In addition, the reduction of transportation before the festival and the increase of freight also promoted the price of pure benzene to rise. The price of pure benzene strongly supports the cost of caprolactam. In addition, the improvement of caprolactam supply was limited, and the tight supply pattern did not change substantially. Domestic caprolactam cost side, supply side, demand side three good convergence, clear market direction. It is expected that caprolactam market will continue to run high after the festival.

Raw material caprolactam market is strong, the cost of PA6 support is strong. At the beginning of this month, the demand for PA6 chips again appeared a small peak before the festival. At present, the overall operating rate of PA6 is high, and the inventory of polymerization plant is not under pressure, and some of them are oversold. At present, although the downstream factories have basically completed the procurement of PA6, the near and far cost side is consistently strong and upward, and the market direction is clear. Spinning and other factories were basically on holiday, the operating rate dropped rapidly, the downstream of engineering plastics and modified plastics were also shut down, and the on-site trading began to fade.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts from business news agency believe: in early February, the domestic PA6 market was strong, and the good news mainly came from the shortage of upstream caprolactam supply, which did not improve, and the high raw material price supported the PA6 cost side. On the demand side, the demand for downstream goods preparation was large at the beginning of the month. Although the current business is basically on holiday and the trading volume turns weak, the fundamentals are still strong. The price of PA6 is expected to remain strong after the festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the domestic price of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin was stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 5133.33 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable. The overall quotation of paraffin wax market is firm. At present, the operation rate of the whole plant in Shandong Province is about 50%, while the chlorinated paraffin plants in Hebei and Henan provinces are shut down. At present, the ex factory price of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin in East China is about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, that of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin in Northeast China is about 5200 yuan / ton, and that of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin in Northwest China is about 5200 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell on January 21, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $53.13/barrel, down US $0.18. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 56.10 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.02 U.S. dollars. Crude oil WTI fell slightly on Thursday after data showed an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which made the market worried about slowing fuel demand and expected to rekindle. Meanwhile, U.S. stimulus measures were expected to limit price decline.

Liquid wax, liquid wax prices more stable this week, the overall trading atmosphere is light and stable. In terms of liquid chlorine, the market price of Jiangsu liquid chlorine ranges from 600-1100 yuan / ton. The delivery of liquid chlorine by most enterprises in Shandong has improved, and the quotation of some enterprises in Shandong is 1150-1250 yuan / ton.

In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are basically on holiday, and the overall trading atmosphere is general.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that near the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises basic holiday, the overall trading atmosphere is general. The output of chlorinated paraffin kept low and the inventory kept low. The price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to be strong before the festival.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market in early February was temporarily stable. As of the 4th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 5725 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride remained stable, the spot supply on the floor was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was firm.

In the near future, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is stable, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the downstream demand is normal, the price trend of o-benzene is stable, the plasticizer market is improved, and the price of phthalic anhydride is deadlocked. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was slightly tight. The price of phthalic anhydride in the market was firm. The downstream plasticizer industry rose slightly. The actual transaction was not obviously good. The price trend of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 5500-5600 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the downstream procurement has not increased significantly. Recently, the price of downstream DOP has risen, which has given the market a boost Certain positive support, but the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable.

In recent years, the domestic price of o-benzene has been temporarily stable, with the market price of 4 700 yuan / ton. The low domestic price of o-benzene is the bad influence of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area remains at a low level, and the external quotation of o-benzene does not change much. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Coupled with the strong wait-and-see sentiment of o-benzene merchants in the market, the price of o-benzene fluctuates at a low level, The low price of raw material o-benzene is bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the resistance to the price rise of phthalic anhydride still exists.

At the beginning of February, the market price of phthalic anhydride downstream DOP continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 9955 yuan / ton as of the 4th, the price of isooctanol rebounded, the cost of DOP raw materials fluctuated and fell, the equipment start-up of DOP enterprises was temporarily stable, the price of PVC fluctuated and warmed up, and the low demand of downstream customers warmed up. The plasticizer market is more dynamic and the downward pressure is weak. The transaction price is based on the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 9900-10400 yuan / ton. The future DOP market is more dynamic and the downward pressure is weak. The domestic phthalic anhydride price may rise slightly due to the favorable support from the downstream.

Overall, the recent rise in crude oil prices, coupled with the improvement of downstream plasticizer industry, the market of phthalic anhydride is supported by the positive, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the future.