1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of toluene continued to rise after the festival. The price of toluene was 4787.5 yuan / ton on February 9, and 5225.25 yuan / ton on this Sunday (February 21), up 437.75 yuan / ton or 9.14% compared with that before the festival.

2、 Analysis and comment

From February 10 to 21, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 350-600 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, affected by crude oil and cold weather in the United States, energy and chemical products rose. The domestic toluene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and the price rose strongly. Asian PX prices rose due to unscheduled shutdown of some devices and reduced supply. However, there is little change in domestic downstream units, and the demand follow-up is weak, which limits the growth of toluene. In terms of external market, the price of toluene imported from South Korea rose by 5.88% to US $666 / T on February 19, and rose by 5.31% to US $684 / T on February 12.

In terms of crude oil, during the Spring Festival, affected by the extremely cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries declined, the inventory of refined oil decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil increased, which was favorable for oil prices. On February 12, Brent rose $2.125/barrel, or 3.47%; WTI rose $2.39/barrel, or 4.11%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable during the Spring Festival, with domestic goods of 12833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.47% over the same period last year. The domestic market is in strong operation, the supplier’s inventory is under no pressure, and the attitude of supporting the market is still the same. Coupled with the force majeure caused by the bad weather abroad, the market is going up, waiting for the guidance of the supplier’s information.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price showed an upward trend this week, with an average price of 5700 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival, and a year-on-year decline of 9.52%. The operating rate of PX in China is about 60%, and that of p-xylene unit in Asia is about 60%. During the Spring Festival, the earthquake in Japan, Vietnam a set of device shutdown, PX production was affected. In the short term, the domestic PX market continued to go to the warehouse. By the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 762-764 USD / T, FOB Korea and 780-782 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Toluene market ushered in a good start, crude oil support was strong, the bulk market atmosphere was warm, and the price rose generally. But demand limits gains. Overall, toluene is expected to continue to follow the trend. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on toluene prices.

In recent years, the domestic ethanol market is mainly reorganized, and the market performance of each region is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 22, the domestic ethanol market price was 7225 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 1.20% and a year-on-year rise of 23.29%.

In terms of regional market, the market in Henan is stable; the market in Northeast China is up, and the downstream is purchased on demand; the market in Anhui is stable; the ethanol market in East China and Shandong is weak. The results show that the ethanol market in Guangdong is up; the molasses ethanol market in Guangxi is high; the molasses ethanol market in Yunnan is stable. The corn ethanol market in Sichuan is high, and the downstream is purchased on demand.

From the perspective of raw material corn, corn prices fluctuated locally. The Spring Festival holiday atmosphere has gradually faded, the market purchase and sales have gradually recovered, and the stock replenishment market continues to support the high spot price, but the probability of a sharp rise is relatively low. As the tight domestic corn supply situation remains unchanged, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the resumption of work and production, it is expected that the corn price will continue to maintain stability in the middle and late ten days.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province ﹣ general grade ﹣ 7150 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7300-7350 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

About 7300-7350 yuan / ton of corn in Anhui Province

About 7100-7200 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7070-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

In Hebei area, the coal quality is less than 7600 yuan / ton

In Guangxi, the consumption of honey alcohol is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6900-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region: anhydrous ethanol: 7800 yuan / ton

About 7000-7400 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

There are about 8100-8150 anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 7600-7700 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-6900 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

In some areas, the price is weakening and waiting for downstream consumption. At present, the market is waiting for big factories to bid, logistics has resumed work, and the price is weakening because of more cars and less work. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of February 20, 2021, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13633 yuan / ton, up 7.06% compared with the price in early February of the year before. Viscose staple fiber price is high, chemical fiber factory list is sufficient, up high report, the actual trading is not much, sporadic single transaction.

Multi factor catalytic viscose staple fiber ushers in recovery cycle

Since October 2020, viscose staple fiber began to rebound, especially the recent price rise. The catalytic factors of this price rise include cotton linter due to rising costs and less volume; domestic pulp prices continue to rise; downstream goods preparation and other factors, but the fundamental reason is the industry recovery cycle driven by the industry capacity cycle.

Downstream cotton yarn Market

Recently, the price of rayon yarn continued to rise, and the transaction performance was general. Zhejiang Xiaoshao ring spinning 30s price 17600-17800 yuan / ton.

Viscose staple fiber price performance is strong, the price is expected to continue to rise. It is estimated that in 2021, the viscose staple fiber industry will continue the trend of the end of 2020, with a bullish price of 16000 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. The price of domestic PR nd rare earth continues to rise. The market price of terbium rises to a 10-year high, and the price of dysprosium reaches a 5-year high. The price of domestic rare earth market rises step by step. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on February 19 was 486 points, 6 points higher than yesterday, and 100 points higher than the highest point in the cycle 0 (2011-12-06) decreased by 51.40%, up 79.34% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth prices continue to rise, and the recent rare earth market is full of bullish, and the market prices continue to rise. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of PR Nd oxide, PR nd alloy, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium have increased. As of February 19, the price of PR Nd oxide in domestic rare earth is 477500 yuan / ton; the price of PR nd alloy is 592500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium oxide is 577500 yuan / ton; the price of metal neodymium oxide is 717500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium oxide is 412500 yuan / ton/ The price of praseodymium is 630000 yuan / ton, and the domestic light rare earth market is rising continuously.

Recently, the demand for permanent magnet continues to increase, and new energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021, which has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet also has a “free ride”. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, China’s auto sales will reach 25.311 million in 2020. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million, breaking the historical record. Downstream demand is rising, it is said that the demand gap has been increasing, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, while the dysprosium series market price has continued to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continued to rise, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.405 million yuan / ton as of the 19th; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy reaching 2.385 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal reaching 3.075 million yuan / ton; the domestic price of terbium series rose sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.825 million yuan / ton and the price of terbium metal reaching 11.025 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium series rose to the highest level in 10 years. There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp rise in the price of heavy rare earth. Second, the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has maintained a high level.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the management of the rare earth industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further growth in demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2201.33 yuan / ton on February 18, 2134.67 yuan / ton on February 9, up 3.12% after the

festival, 5.6% on a month on month basis and 13.86% on a year-on-year basis.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on February 18, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, and on February 9, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, up 2.05% on a month on month basis. After the festival, the price was temporarily stable, up 13.18% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

After the Spring Festival, the price of map increased by 3.12%. At present, the foreign demand of map is increasing, and the price is rising, which drives the domestic market. At the same time, the price of raw materials is rising, the cost support is stronger, and the fundamentals are good. The sales pressure of enterprises is not big, so they are generally optimistic about the future market. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Anhui Province is 2105 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei Province is 2170-2200 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan Province is about 2200-2250 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton.

After the Spring Festival, the price of DAP is temporarily stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation compared with that before the festival. In Hubei Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises stopped reporting, while in Gansu Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises offered 2650 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2930-3050 yuan / ton. In Guizhou Province, 64% diammonium is priced at 2950-3000 yuan per ton, while in Heilongjiang Province, the first station advance receipt price of 64% diammonium rises to about 3050 yuan per ton.

In terms of raw materials, on February 18, the domestic sulfur market rose sharply. The price of solid sulfur in regional refineries increased by 30-80 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur in East China increased by 50 yuan / ton, while the price in other regions was temporarily stable. The sulfur inventory of refineries in various regions is low, the sulfur market is strong, and the shippers have no intention to ship at a low price. At present, the export market of phosphate fertilizer continues to improve. In addition, the domestic spring ploughing fertilizer is approaching, the downstream market is favorable, the sulfur price rises, and the future sulfur market is relatively strong. Pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that after the holiday, the market of ammonium phosphate will be better, the price of monoammonium phosphate will rise, and the price of diammonium phosphate will remain high. At present, the foreign demand of map is increasing, and the price is rising, which drives the domestic market. At the same time, the price of raw materials is rising, the cost support is stronger, and the fundamentals are good. The sales pressure of enterprises is not big. Generally, they are optimistic about the future market, and the price is expected to rise further. In the short term, the market is stable. However, with the support of tight supply and favorable conditions, it is expected that the future price will be easy to rise but difficult to fall.