1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. On April 25, the price of pure benzene was 7050-7400 yuan / ton (average price 7280 yuan / ton), and on Friday (April 30), the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (average price 7410 yuan / ton), with an average price of 130 yuan / ton, or 1.79%, higher than last week; It was 145.36% higher than that of the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In the first half of this week, pure benzene rose first and then fell with the trend of styrene. The delivery price of styrene rose at the end of the month, and pure benzene rose with it; After the fall of demand, the market center of pure benzene weakened. In the second half of the week, due to the preparation of pure benzene before the festival and the active downstream procurement, the inventory of some enterprises continued to decline and the market price strengthened. This week, Sinopec’s listing price increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, with strong bottom support and strong market mentality.
In terms of external market, after the delivery at the end of the month, the focus of external market in Europe and the United States dropped rationally, but the supply in Europe and the United States was still tight, and the pure benzene in Asia remained strong this week. On Friday (April 30), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was 956.67 US dollars / ton, up 3.34 US dollars / ton or 0.35% from April 23; The import reference price of East China was $980 / T, up 20 / T or 2.08% from April 23.
In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + decided to maintain the policy of gradually increasing production, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 23, Brent rose $1.46/barrel, or 2.23%; WTI rose $1.34 per barrel, or 2.16%.
Downstream: styrene: this week, the price of styrene rose first and then fell. On April 30, the price of sample enterprises was 9750 yuan / ton, down 2.5% compared with last week, and up 91.18% compared with the same period last year. Early delivery near the end of the month, the price of styrene continued to rise, with the end of the short trade at the end of the month, coupled with strong downstream resistance, styrene fell.
Aniline: before the festival, the price of aniline was stable. On April 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week and increased by 123.61% compared with the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, we will continue to pay attention to the Indian epidemic, the latest OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.
Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: there is strong resistance to high price styrene in the downstream, and some downstream plants shut down to reduce load. It is expected that there will be a certain degree of negative effect on pure benzene in the short term. In May, the maintenance plan of some domestic units was delayed, Huatai and Hongrun had plans to increase production capacity, and the market supply was expected to be loose.
On the supply side, the pure benzene market is expected to remain tight in May. In terms of inventory, the arrival of goods at the end of the month was concentrated, and the main port inventory in East China began to accumulate, but the increment was not high. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, it is expected to maintain a strong trend in May. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.