Affected by downstream demand, mixed xylene prices rose first and then fell (2021.4.26-4.30)

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene prices fell slightly this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On April 25, the price of mixed xylene was 5790 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (April 30) was 5850 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton from last week, up 1.04%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene inventories in East China port fell this week. The demand for gasoline blending before the festival was good, which helped to boost the mixed xylene market to a small extent; In the later period, the demand for gasoline declined, and the market mentality of mixed xylene fell back. On the external market, as of April 30, the price of imported mixed xylene in South Korea was 781.5 USD / T, while the price rose 18 USD / T, or 2.36% on April 23, on April 23; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 804 / T, which rose by 23 US dollars / ton, or 2.94% on April 23.

On the crude oil side, good: news in the week that opec+ conference decided to maintain the policy of gradual increase of production unchanged, and the improvement of energy demand in Europe and America supported the market. Sky: India is in a severe situation, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. Brent rose $1.46/barrel this week, or 2.23 percent, on April 23; WTI rose $1.34/barrel, or 2.16 percent.

In the downstream and PX market, the factory price of p-xylene in China this week remained stable, with the price of 6400 yuan / ton, 60% year-on-year. The overall operation of p-xylene plant in North China and East China is stable, with the site operating rate of more than 90%, the supply of goods in the site is normal, the goods are in good condition, about 50% in the northwest and over 50% in South China. The closing price for Asia as of April 29 was $858-860 / T FOB Korea and $876-878 / T CFR China.

PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose this week, with Friday (April 30) at 4750.91 yuan / ton, up 4.04% from last week, up 44.35% from the same period last year.

On the ox market, ox prices remained stable this week, with the price of ox in East China on Friday at 5900 yuan / ton, up 40.48% from the same period last year. The price of the external market of phthalate rose, the cost level was temporarily stable, and the downstream market was stable.

3、 Post market forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society think: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and America. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to operate in a strong way, supporting the price of mixed xylene. The support for gasoline blending demand is full of uncertainty, and no obvious follow-up has been made in other downstream. The port has low inventory and tight supply. In a comprehensive way, it is expected that the mixed xylene market will remain strong after the saving period, and the price may rise. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of the price trend of Blending Crude Oil and gasoline, the maintenance dynamics of mixed xylene plant, port inventory and downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.