1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

On May 6, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market rose. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of May 6, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.37% compared with the price before the festival, and down 17.32% compared with April 6. After the festival, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement has been improved, the market trading atmosphere is better, and the focus of formic acid market negotiation has moved up.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of the merchants is in line with the market, and the actual transaction price of different brands, different specifications and products is mainly negotiated.)

enterprise market price Specifications date

Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd 2400 yuan / ton Application grade: industrial grade; Content: ≥ 85.0%; Grade: superior 2021-05-06

Liaocheng transportation group Hongmao Materials Co., Ltd 2350 yuan / ton Application grade: industrial grade; Content: ≥ 85.0%; Grade: superior 2021-05-06

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd 2300 yuan / ton Application grade: industrial grade; Content: ≥ 85.0%; Grade: superior 2021-05-06

Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd 2600 yuan / ton Application grade: industrial grade; Content: ≥ 85.0%; Grade: superior 2021-05-06

For upstream caustic soda, on May 6, the price of caustic soda in Shandong remained weak. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The enterprise’s shipment is tepid, and the downstream receiving situation is weak and stable. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future; On May 6, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was slightly loose; On May 6, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable. The market of sulfur in the upper reaches was recently consolidated at a high level, and the cost support was good. However, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid rose slightly in the future; Upstream methanol, May 6, Anhui methanol market higher.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that after the festival, there is a demand for replenishment in the downstream, which is more active in entering the market. Manufacturers can ship smoothly and support the market. It is expected that the formic acid market will be stable, medium and strong in the short term. More attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices and market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene prices fell slightly this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On April 25, the price of mixed xylene was 5790 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (April 30) was 5850 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton from last week, up 1.04%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene inventories in East China port fell this week. The demand for gasoline blending before the festival was good, which helped to boost the mixed xylene market to a small extent; In the later period, the demand for gasoline declined, and the market mentality of mixed xylene fell back. On the external market, as of April 30, the price of imported mixed xylene in South Korea was 781.5 USD / T, while the price rose 18 USD / T, or 2.36% on April 23, on April 23; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 804 / T, which rose by 23 US dollars / ton, or 2.94% on April 23.

On the crude oil side, good: news in the week that opec+ conference decided to maintain the policy of gradual increase of production unchanged, and the improvement of energy demand in Europe and America supported the market. Sky: India is in a severe situation, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. Brent rose $1.46/barrel this week, or 2.23 percent, on April 23; WTI rose $1.34/barrel, or 2.16 percent.

In the downstream and PX market, the factory price of p-xylene in China this week remained stable, with the price of 6400 yuan / ton, 60% year-on-year. The overall operation of p-xylene plant in North China and East China is stable, with the site operating rate of more than 90%, the supply of goods in the site is normal, the goods are in good condition, about 50% in the northwest and over 50% in South China. The closing price for Asia as of April 29 was $858-860 / T FOB Korea and $876-878 / T CFR China.

PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose this week, with Friday (April 30) at 4750.91 yuan / ton, up 4.04% from last week, up 44.35% from the same period last year.

On the ox market, ox prices remained stable this week, with the price of ox in East China on Friday at 5900 yuan / ton, up 40.48% from the same period last year. The price of the external market of phthalate rose, the cost level was temporarily stable, and the downstream market was stable.

3、 Post market forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society think: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and America. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to operate in a strong way, supporting the price of mixed xylene. The support for gasoline blending demand is full of uncertainty, and no obvious follow-up has been made in other downstream. The port has low inventory and tight supply. In a comprehensive way, it is expected that the mixed xylene market will remain strong after the saving period, and the price may rise. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of the price trend of Blending Crude Oil and gasoline, the maintenance dynamics of mixed xylene plant, port inventory and downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. On April 25, the price of pure benzene was 7050-7400 yuan / ton (average price 7280 yuan / ton), and on Friday (April 30), the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (average price 7410 yuan / ton), with an average price of 130 yuan / ton, or 1.79%, higher than last week; It was 145.36% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of this week, pure benzene rose first and then fell with the trend of styrene. The delivery price of styrene rose at the end of the month, and pure benzene rose with it; After the fall of demand, the market center of pure benzene weakened. In the second half of the week, due to the preparation of pure benzene before the festival and the active downstream procurement, the inventory of some enterprises continued to decline and the market price strengthened. This week, Sinopec’s listing price increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, with strong bottom support and strong market mentality.

In terms of external market, after the delivery at the end of the month, the focus of external market in Europe and the United States dropped rationally, but the supply in Europe and the United States was still tight, and the pure benzene in Asia remained strong this week. On Friday (April 30), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was 956.67 US dollars / ton, up 3.34 US dollars / ton or 0.35% from April 23; The import reference price of East China was $980 / T, up 20 / T or 2.08% from April 23.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + decided to maintain the policy of gradually increasing production, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 23, Brent rose $1.46/barrel, or 2.23%; WTI rose $1.34 per barrel, or 2.16%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, the price of styrene rose first and then fell. On April 30, the price of sample enterprises was 9750 yuan / ton, down 2.5% compared with last week, and up 91.18% compared with the same period last year. Early delivery near the end of the month, the price of styrene continued to rise, with the end of the short trade at the end of the month, coupled with strong downstream resistance, styrene fell.

Aniline: before the festival, the price of aniline was stable. On April 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week and increased by 123.61% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, we will continue to pay attention to the Indian epidemic, the latest OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: there is strong resistance to high price styrene in the downstream, and some downstream plants shut down to reduce load. It is expected that there will be a certain degree of negative effect on pure benzene in the short term. In May, the maintenance plan of some domestic units was delayed, Huatai and Hongrun had plans to increase production capacity, and the market supply was expected to be loose.

On the supply side, the pure benzene market is expected to remain tight in May. In terms of inventory, the arrival of goods at the end of the month was concentrated, and the main port inventory in East China began to accumulate, but the increment was not high. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, it is expected to maintain a strong trend in May. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

In 2020, the carbon black industry has withstood the test of the epidemic, and production has gradually recovered from the second half of the year, ushering in the “little spring” of market demand growth, and the profitability of enterprises has also been improved. But on the whole, there is a lack of high-end products, the profitability is still below the average level of the industry, and most of the exports are low-end products, with both volume and price falling. ”

From March to April, the focus of price negotiation shifted downward, accumulating 600-800 yuan / ton. After the middle and late April, the domestic and export sales of tires were under pressure, and some tire enterprises successively lowered their plans to start or save, which was constrained by the weakening demand and the bad mood of carbon black market. However, the carbon black industry still had a strong price stability mentality under the support of high coal tar.

Near the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm of deep processing enterprises to prepare raw materials for coal tar has increased. In addition, under the environmental protection policies of Shanxi, Hebei and other regions, coke enterprises limit production, coal tar supply is in short supply, and under the situation of tight goods and rising prices, the new orders of coal tar have increased more than the market expectation. As of April 28, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co., Ltd. coal tar auction, coal chemical transaction 3750 yuan / ton, 450 yuan / ton higher than last week’s price; Hebei Huafeng high temperature coal tar auction, the final transaction price of 3675 yuan / ton, cash factory, 260 yuan / ton higher than last week. In April, the cumulative increase of coal tar in Shandong and Hebei was 213 yuan / ton and 315 yuan / ton respectively, while that in Shanxi was 635 yuan / ton.

Manufacturers: at present, the overall construction of the carbon black industry is fairly good. After the implementation of orders in April, the inventory of carbon black manufacturers has been digested obviously. Recently, due to the impact of environmental protection, some carbon black manufacturers have stopped temporarily. At present, due to the superposition of factors such as goods preparation before May Day, bullish purchasing in the later period, and maintenance of carbon black manufacturers, the supply and demand situation of carbon black market has changed significantly, and some enterprises are in short stock. According to the feedback from the industry, the price of a large carbon black factory in Hongdong, Shanxi has increased by 100 yuan. At present, vehicles are queuing up for goods, and there is no stock; A carbon black plant in Hejin, Shanxi, was out of stock yesterday; A carbon black factory in Qingxu County, Shanxi Province was out of stock yesterday; The current inventory of a carbon black plant in Jishan, Shanxi is low; The inventory of a carbon black factory in Shahe, Hebei Province is low; The inventory of a carbon black factory in Dezhou, Shandong Province is low; It is reported that the four lines of Jining factory, a large domestic carbon black enterprise, have been overhauled for 10-12 days, and the commonly used brands have been out of stock.

Downstream: this week, the tire industry started a slight decline, but the overall still high, higher than the same period; The semi steel tire market continued to be stable, the goods delivery of all steel tire was not smooth, and the inventory increased; Tricycle tire performance is flat, carbon black is purchased on demand. Other products, color masterbatch and other industries showed mediocre performance. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the trend of carbon black, and the inventory of most enterprises was at the lowest limit. This week, the supply of carbon black market was delayed, especially before the festival, the market fluctuated, and some brand businesses scrambled for goods. In the early stage, they were on the lookout for the market, and the enterprises were slightly passive in preparing goods.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of TDI in East China was weak in April. The average price of TDI was 16750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 15666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and decreased by 1083.33 yuan / ton, down 6.47%. As of the 30th, the domestic TDI market offers reference 14300-14500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 14500-14700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

In the first ten days of April, the TDI market was stable and down, the market was stable and slightly moving, the atmosphere in the market was light, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm was not high, and a small number just needed to follow up. As of the 15th, in East China, the reference price of domestic goods with tickets was 15300-15500 yuan / ton, and the reference price of Shanghai goods with tickets was 15700-15800 yuan / ton. In late April, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline, the offer of goods holders continued to decline, the price of dealers coexisted with high and low price, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was not high, the purchase intention was low, and the market price continued to decline.

The upstream toluene market continued to rise, up 4.32% in the month, from 5461.00 yuan / ton to 5697.00 yuan / ton. Affected by the high volatility of crude oil price, the rise of external price supported the price rise of toluene spot market, but the downstream follow-up was weak, the demand side was weak, the rise of toluene was limited, and the future market rose slightly.

According to the TDI data analyst of business agency, the TDI market is currently in a stalemate. The trading atmosphere in the market is weak. The quotation in the distribution market is mainly on the lookout. The replenishment in the downstream before the festival is coming to an end, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the demand side. It is expected that the TDI market will be on the lookout in the future and pay attention to the guidance of other factories.