The price fluctuation of raw corn in the main producing areas is limited, but the price of corn in Henan Province has decreased significantly. The price of corn ethanol market continues to weaken due to weak demand. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of August 4, the domestic ethanol market price was 6682 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.85% and a year-on-year increase of 8.00%.

Northeast corn ethanol continues to weaken, cassava ethanol slightly follows the adjustment, and molasses ethanol prices are strong. The market transaction performance is light, and the downstream chemical industry purchases on demand. Downstream demand power is insufficient, domestic acetic acid ethyl ester enterprises operating rate slightly improved, Baijiu and other chemical demand is still not high.

In terms of raw materials, the corn market in Jilin fell in a narrow range, the corn price in Henan fell in a narrow range, and the dry cassava price in Thailand was weak, with Thailand fob250-255 US dollars / ton; The price of molasses is strong, and the mainstream transaction price of molasses is more than 1700 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic acetate Market was first depressed and then increased, the market weakened briefly, the downstream operation of ethyl acetate was low, and the demand was relatively weak.

Latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region 95% alcohol 6800-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Absolute ethanol 7550-7750 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Cassava alcohol About 7000 yuan / ton

Guangdong region 95% ethanol About 6850-7050 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7650-7850 yuan / ton

Sichuan region Corn alcohol About 7550-7650 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 7100-7150 yuan / ton

Shandong region General level 6350-6450 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 6900-7100 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 7300 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6700-6800 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6500 yuan / ton

Anhui region Cassava general About 6600-6650 yuan / ton

Anhui region anhydrous About 7400 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan region Absolute ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei region General level 6800-6900 yuan / ton

Hebei region Coal anhydrous 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region Corn alcohol general grade 6200 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 6300 yuan / ton, tax included

The price of cassava is weak, and the price of corn is weak. Weak price consolidation under weak downstream demand. The ethanol analyst of business society expects that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market may still weaken slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rose this week. On July 25, the price of mixed xylene was 5860 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 1), the price was 5900 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton from last week, a narrow range of 0.68%; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 68.09%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil prices rose this week with good cost support, but due to weather and other factors, the demand for mixed xylene was limited and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of external market, as of July 30, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $812 / T, up US $12 / T or 1.5% month on week compared with July 23; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $833 / T, up US $16 / T or 1.96% month on month on July 23.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of isovirus strains dragged down the market mentality, but the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the United States decreased, and the demand recovery was good, boosting the oil price. On July 16, Brent rose $2.23 / barrel, or 3.01%; WTI rose $1.88/barrel, or 2.61%.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for four consecutive weeks this week, with a year-on-year increase of 47.92% at 7100 yuan / ton. As of July 30, the closing prices in Asia were USD 940-942 / T FOB Korea and USD 958-960 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China fell first and then rose this week, and the price increased compared with last week. On Friday (July 30), the price was 5541.82 yuan / ton, up 2.52% compared with last week and 55.21% compared with the same period last year.

In the ox market, the ox price remained stable this week. On Friday (July 30), the ox price in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.91% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, etc. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

The demand side continues to be tepid, the trend of crude oil on the cost side is still uncertain, and the trend of mixed xylene is expected to be deadlocked in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of July 30, the DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was reported as 20360 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price in the previous two weeks and 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of June; The price of nylon POY was reported at 17950 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous two weeks, an increase of 825 yuan / ton compared with the price at the end of June; The price of nylon FDY was reported at 20933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in the previous two weeks, and increased by 933 yuan / ton compared with the price at the end of June. From the price trend, in early July, the nylon market rose across the board mainly driven by the cost of upstream raw materials; Since mid July, nylon prices have temporarily maintained a high and stable operation, and the upstream and downstream parties are cautious about the future market. Especially since late last decade, the upstream raw material caprolactam has made a narrow correction, the market trend of nylon industrial chain is weak, the manufacturers’ supply is stable, but there is still resistance to shipment, it is difficult to clinch a deal at a high price in the field, the demand of downstream terminal market is flat, the overall market production and sales are slow, and the market atmosphere is strong.

Nylon price chart

Upstream market analysis

The upstream raw material market of nylon is weak, which is slightly weak for the support of nylon market.

Cyclohexanone price chart

Since late July, the raw material cyclohexanone market has continued to decline. Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene has been reduced by 450 to 8150 yuan / ton. The mentality in the field is empty. In addition, some downstream caprolactam plants have not been restarted and the demand has decreased. Caprolactam first opened the decline channel. The listing price of upstream pure benzene has been reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 8450 yuan / ton twice, and the cost support surface has been narrowed, The supply of on-site goods is expected to increase significantly, the factory offer is deadlocked, and the on-site intended transaction price is also weakening. The supply of cyclohexanone increased and some factories reduced prices. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 23, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China was 10440 yuan / ton.

PA6 price chart

Recently, the domestic market of raw material PA6 continues to be weak, and the spot prices of various brands have been reduced to varying degrees. As of July 26, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15466.67 yuan / ton. PA6 cost side support is weakened. At present, although the operating rate of PA6 industry remains at a low level, the supply side support remains. However, the demand of end users is difficult to expand, and the resistance to on-site shipment increases. There is little trading in the market and the atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still weaken in a narrow range in the short term.

Downstream market demand

The price trend of nylon remained basically stable, and the stalemate was dominated. The nylon filament manufacturer’s installation started fairly well, and the spot supply on the site remained sufficient. Although the manufacturer actively shipped, the customers in the downstream terminal field were not very popular. As the customers’ intention to take goods weakened after the price rose, they followed up more on demand, and the overall market just needed to buy was also weak; The market price of nylon cord fabric is strong and high. Although the high viscosity chips in the upstream remain stable, the cost side support is OK. The supply of manufacturers is tight in the early stage, and the supply gradually stabilizes in the near future. The downstream terminal nylon manufacturers just need to follow up. Some manufacturers start low, mainly de stocking, and the overall market remains high; The transaction of nylon staple fiber market is relatively flexible. The upstream conventional spinning chips are adjusted in a narrow range, the cost side does not play a strong role in supporting the staple fiber, the spot supply in the field remains stable, the demand in the downstream core spun yarn field is OK, but the proportion is small, the demand in other fields is general, and the actual transaction in the field has little room for negotiation, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for the future market.

Future forecast

Overall, near the end of the month, the nylon market trend is weak, the upstream raw material market is expected to decline in a narrow range, the cost side support is weakened, the on-site supply remains stable, and the nylon terminal demand has not improved significantly. Most downstream enterprises just need to take goods, the order support is limited, the polarity of taking goods is not high, and the actual trading atmosphere on the site is flat. It is expected that the spot price of nylon may weaken in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI in East China rose in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI market was 13866.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 15166.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.37% in the month. As of the 31st, the outbound price of domestic goods with tickets is around 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 14700-15100 yuan / ton.

In July, the TDI market rose as a whole, and the market mentality was mainly wait-and-see. There were two obvious increases this month. It was learned from the market news in early July that Xinjiang Juli plant was shut down, which boosted the market mentality. The offers of cargo holders mostly followed the increase, and there were few low-price offers in the yard. The downstream side mainly purchased on demand; Around July 20, the weekly guidance price of the factory was announced one after another. The goods holders adjusted their quotation according to the news of large factories. The market offer was stable and small, and the quotation of dealers also kept up with the rise. However, the downstream purchase was still weak, the enthusiasm to enter the market was general, the purchase was just needed, the on-site wait-and-see mentality, and the market situation became stable.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated, with an overall increase of 0.85% in the month, and the average production price at the end of the month was 5810 yuan / ton. In the early stage, the toluene market was driven by the rise of crude oil, the on-site supply was reduced, the focus of negotiation in the toluene market was high, and the international crude oil showed a downward trend in the later stage. In addition, the listing price of Sinopec was lowered, the market wait-and-see mentality was strong, the downstream follow-up was weak, the demand of the domestic spot market was weak, and the toluene market was sorted and operated.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the TDI market is mainly on the sidelines, the on-site trading atmosphere is light, the dealer’s market quotation is firm and stable, and the downstream follow-up is just needed. The factory listing price news is released at the end of the month, and the offer of the goods holder is stable and small. It is expected that the TDI market will be on the sidelines temporarily in the later stage and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

DOP price stops rising and wants to fall

According to the data monitoring of business society, affected by the rise in raw material prices, DOP prices rose all the way in July. As of July 29, the DOP price was 15725.00 yuan / ton, up 18.23% from the DOP price of 13300.00 yuan / ton on July 1. However, it can be seen from the DOP price trend chart that since the latter ten days, the increase of DOP has slowed down. After the 26th, the DOP price has stabilized. On the 29th, the DOP price fell slightly and the DOP line lust fell.

The situation of raw material market is surging

It can be seen from the isooctanol price trend chart that the isooctanol market rose sharply in July, the isooctanol price rose as high as 20% in July, the cost of DOP rose sharply in July, and the rising power of DOP was large. The price rise of isooctanol began to slow down in the lower reaches, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future weakened.

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart, the phthalic anhydride market rose violently in July, and the phthalic anhydride price rose all the way in July, with an increase of 5%. The upward momentum of DOP increased, stimulating the rise of DOP.

The downstream market is under pressure

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market rose slightly in July. Since late July, the PVC price has fallen slightly, the downstream demand of DOP is weak, and the downstream downward pressure of DOP is increasing.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply in July, stimulating DOP prices to rise. However, although the downstream PVC continues to be high affected by the rise of calcium carbide, the rise of PVC price is relatively stable, the PVC cost pressure is increasing, the downstream cost pressure is transmitted to the upstream, the upward driving force of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. Overall, the price of raw materials stabilized, the rising power of raw materials weakened, the downstream cost pressure was transmitted, there was no room for the rise of plasticizer DOP, the downward pressure increased, and the desire of plasticizer DOP fell in the future.