DOP prices fell against the market this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price was temporarily stable on September 22, and the DOP market trend became stable. As of September 22, the DOP price was 13950.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price on September 18 of the previous trading day, and decreased by 5.34% compared with the DOP price of 14737.50 yuan / ton on September 1. DOP prices stabilized and the decline of DOP slowed down.

Overview of industrial chain Market

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of raw material isooctanol is stabilizing, the price of phthalic anhydride is warming slightly, and the cost of DOP is stabilizing; The price of downstream plastic PVC rebounded and rose, and the demand was stable; The start-up of DOP manufacturers decreased, and the supply of DOP decreased.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business agency, believes that the recent shock decline in the price of isooctanol has led to a decline in DOP prices; As the decline of isooctanol price slows down, the price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly and the cost of DOP rises. Affected by the dual control of environmental protection and energy consumption, PVC prices rebounded and rose, stimulating the rise of DOP prices. Generally speaking, the rising cost and the recovery of demand will increase the momentum of DOP rise in the future. DOP price is expected to be stable temporarily, and DOP price in the future will be strong and stable temporarily in the short term, with a rebound upward trend in the medium term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the price of bromine is rising. On September 18, the market price of bromine was 45937.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 52.84% over the same period last year. On September 18, the bromine commodity index was 160.15, the same as yesterday, down 0.91% from the highest point of 161.62 in the cycle (2021-07-01), and up 171.81% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is rising. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 44000-50000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price continues to rise this week. The output of bromine enterprises in Shandong has declined, and the manufacturers in Changyi are basically stopping production. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have started. Although they have stopped production recently, the demand for bromine is OK, the demand for bromine is OK, and the price of bromine has increased.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur market is running stably temporarily, and refineries in various regions offer stable prices according to their own shipments. Domestic refineries operate normally, with low inventory, strong manufacturer quotation, downstream traders purchase on demand, enterprise shipment is relatively stable, and the future sulfur market is temporarily stable. Pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow, but now the start-up of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries still supports bromine, and the demand for bromine is OK. It is comprehensively expected that the price of bromine in the short term will still rise in the later stage, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate still showed a sharp upward trend this week. At present, the upward trend has not slowed down. On September 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 146400 yuan / ton, which was 8.77% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 134600 yuan / ton on September 12). On September 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 152800 yuan / ton, which was 7.76% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 141800 yuan / ton on September 12). As of September 16, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 133000 ~ 1710000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 143000 ~ 176000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise sharply this week, and the price basically increased to varying degrees every day. The rising price is caused by the tense relationship between supply and demand in the lithium salt market, coupled with the delay of shipping schedule caused by the epidemic, resulting in a decline in overseas imports and an obvious reduction, which has a lot of impact on the supply of the domestic market. On September 14, the auction price of the second batch of 8000 tons of lithium concentrate of Pilbara, the main lithium mining company in Australia, reached 2240 yuan / ton, continuing to hit a record high, which makes the lithium price of subsequent lithium salt plants continue to rise under the condition of reasonable profits.

At present, on the demand side, the new production line of lithium iron phosphate enterprises is put into operation, superimposing the downstream demand increment. The overall demand for lithium carbonate increases, and the market is in short supply. The inventory of downstream material enterprises is tight. In order to maintain orders, the purchase intention is strengthened, which promotes the lithium carbonate price to continue to rise rapidly. In terms of raw materials, it is difficult to get one ticket of overseas lithium concentrate, and the price of lithium ore has reached a new high. With the impact of cooling climate in China, the output of Salt Lake will also decrease, which makes the demand for raw materials more tense.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market continues to rise, the upstream spodumene price is strong, and the market supply has increased recently, but the spot supply of mainstream manufacturers is still limited, and the downstream follow-up is positive and stable.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the market is dominated in a narrow range, the upstream cost support is strong, the rise is not reduced, the negotiation focus is high, lithium iron phosphate keeps pace, rises in a narrow range, and the transaction atmosphere is strong.

The lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that under the current situation of sharp rise in raw materials, the profits of production enterprises are greatly reduced. Therefore, only increasing the sales price can increase the profits. Coupled with the rising demand for downstream production release, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the spot copper price fell slightly on September 15, and the current quotation is 69745 yuan / ton, down 1.11% from the previous trading day. US inflation data was lower than expected, and copper closed down $103 overnight. The threat of copper mine strike in Chile has decreased. At present, the overall supply side of copper mine has maintained a stable pattern, the short-term interference has been further removed, and the shortage of raw materials has been alleviated. In August, the domestic industrial added value fell to 5.3% lower than expected, superimposed on the national regulation on real estate, the short-term tight supply of refined copper continued to improve, the domestic refined copper smelting and processing fees continued to rise, and the copper price was under pressure in the short term. At present, the domestic inventory is low, which supports the price, but the downstream has limited acceptance of high copper price, and the price rise is difficult to sustain. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the offer in East China market was 6200 yuan / ton on September 1 and 6550 yuan / ton on September 14, with an increase of 4.8%. In the national market, the current negotiation space is 6550-6800 yuan / ton. Offers from major mainstream regions are as follows: 6550 yuan / ton in East China, 6950 yuan / ton in South China and 6650 yuan / ton in Yanshan and Shandong.

The atmosphere of replenishment and delivery in the terminal factory has been significantly improved, the on-site cargo holders have some support, the offer has increased, some manufacturers have limited shipments, and there are contract reductions within the month..

From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has maintained a stable trend. Except that Jilin Petrochemical has started unlimited export at 70%, the operating rates of CNOOC shell and Yangzhou Shiyou are low, and the operating rates of other enterprises are 95%. Most enterprises have been operating at full capacity. At the beginning of this week, pure benzene soared, related products phenol soared, and petrochemical enterprises also increased acetone products one after another, which boosted the mentality of market holders.

From the perspective of business agency, at present, the market fundamentals are stable, the mentality of cargo holders is stable, and the offer is mainly firm. Business agency expects the short-term negotiation in East China market to be 6550-6600 yuan / ton.