Commodity index: on September 12, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 95.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.61% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.97% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China remained stable last week. From September 6 to 12, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1762.33 yuan / ton, and the weekly market was stable.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable last week, with a quotation of 276.67 yuan / ton, down 4.60% from the same period last year. On August 30, the mainstream quotation was about 296.67 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the domestic mainstream quotation was 293.33, with a range of – 1.13%. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the market price of downstream ammonium chloride is high and the purchase intention of downstream is not strong, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid mainly fluctuates slightly in the near future.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG continued to decline. On September 6, the average price of domestic LNG was 5926.67 yuan / ton, and on September 12, the mainstream price was 5783.33 yuan / ton, with a weekly adjustment range of – 2.42%. The overall demand is weakened, the terminal gas is insufficient, and the liquid plant reduces the price and discharges the warehouse for good, but the high price transaction is not smooth, and there are still downward expectations. However, the cost is high and the supporting force is still, so the downward range is not large. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the current raw material price of polyaluminium chloride has little change, but the price of liquefied natural gas has decreased, and polyaluminium chloride is likely to be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price was strong this week. As of September 10, the spot price was 155100 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from 147816.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 21.05% from the beginning of the week and 32.51% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose 7 and fell 5, which were strong in the past two weeks.

Macro factors: in the first half of this week, the nickel price was under pressure to callback against the background of the rebound of the US dollar index. In the second half of this week, the market sentiment was good, and the non-ferrous metal plate rose strongly, driving the nickel price to rebound.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: in August, the actual output of ferronickel from China and Indonesia totaled 114800 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.98% and a year-on-year increase of 18.91%. The transportation capacity of the global shipping market is tight, and the shipping cost rises sharply; Domestic ports are congested, ship demurrage is high, and the cost of factory raw materials increases. Under the overall shortage of resources, the nickel ore market as a whole is in a state of price without market, and the bargaining focus continues to rise.

Downstream: in July, China’s stainless steel production decreased; In August, stainless steel production decreased slightly; In September, the output of stainless steel decreased further. From the perspective of new energy production chain, lithium iron phosphate in batteries increased significantly, and the proportion of ternary batteries decreased relatively. From the perspective of nickel sulfate supply, Indonesia’s wet process project is in operation, and the domestic production line of electrolytic nickel to nickel sulfate is basically transformed. However, from the price performance of nickel sulfate, the price is still high, but it has been weaker than that in the early stage.

To sum up: nickel supply is tight this week, LME inventory continues to decline, which supports nickel price, and the demand for downstream stainless steel and new energy is general. It is expected that nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of September 10, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8033 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 5 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7750 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 283 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.66%. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 967 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.15%.

At the beginning of July, a new n-propanol plant was opened in Shandong large factory, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol was low. Subsequently, the factory quotation of n-propanol increased steadily. In September, at the beginning of the month, the low-end quotation of propanol in Shandong increased greatly, and then the spot dealers and dealers followed suit, but some high-end quotations were concussed and lowered at the end of last week.

This week, the newly opened n-propanol plant in Shandong operates normally, the low-end price of n-propanol plant continues to rise, and the secondary market price also rises one after another. At present, the high and low price difference of n-propanol market in Shandong continues to shrink, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol is around 7800-8000 yuan / ton (apron). In Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, the market trend of n-propanol is stable. The production unit of n-propanol in Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. operates normally, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is 8500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic n-propanol was 8033 yuan / ton at the weekend, an overall increase of 3.66% during the week compared with the beginning of the week.

N-propanol is a widely used chemical product. In China, n-propanol is mainly used to produce n-Propyl Acetate, and the demand in this field accounts for about 65%. N-Propyl Acetate is widely used in food packaging production and as a printing ink solvent for food packaging. N-Propyl Acetate is also an important component of lithium battery electrolyte for new energy vehicles. At present, the market situation of n-Propyl Acetate in Shandong is relatively stable. The market quotation of n-Propyl Acetate in Shandong is 9300-9600 yuan / ton, and some low-end quotations are 9000 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, this week, the overall external ethylene market showed a volatile upward trend. On September 8, the Asian ethylene market quoted CFR Northeast Asia at USD 1061-1071 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia at USD 1041-1051 / ton. European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1212-1222 / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1125-1134 / ton, down US $3 / ton. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $850-866 / T, down US $66 / T. recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general.

Internationally, on September 8, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 68.35, up US $0.94 or 1.4%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $71.69/barrel, up US $0.53 or 0.70%. The rebound in oil prices was mainly due to the slow recovery of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico and the increase in global energy demand in the monthly report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the demand side of n-propanol is normal, and the domestic n-propanol factories are under normal operation. According to the analysts of business society, the domestic n-propanol market trend in the short term will mainly focus on the stable consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of September 8, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 144666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.23% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, 46.13% compared with August 1 and 164.63% compared with the same period last year.

Recently, the lithium hydroxide Market has been rising all the way. In August, the price of raw spodumene was tight and the price was high. In the early stage, some smelters were in the maintenance period, the output was reduced and the cost support was strong. The demand side performed well, driving the price upward. With the supply picking up, the demand side performed strongly, the export orders continued to increase, the domestic cash supply was still tight, and the market continued to improve, with an increase of 21.89% in August. In September, the lithium hydroxide market continued to rise. At present, the price of upstream spodumene continues to be high, the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, the cost support is still strong, the number of enterprises is about single, the supply of spot resources is limited, the downstream demand of industrial grade lithium hydroxide is relatively stable, the market willingness to support the price is still strong, the enterprise offer is high, and the lithium hydroxide market operates strongly.

In terms of index, the lithium hydroxide commodity index on September 7 was 342.06, up 15.08 points from yesterday, down 10.33% from the highest point of 381.48 in the cycle (September 12, 2016), and up 242.06% from the lowest point of 100.00 on September 4, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2014 to now)

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of business society: the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate has increased recently. On September 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 127400 yuan / ton, which was 6.88% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 119200 yuan / ton on September 1). On September 7, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 134800 yuan / ton, which was 7.32% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 125600 yuan / ton on September 1).

The lithium hydroxide analyst of business society believes that, on the whole, the current cost, supply and mentality are still favorable, and the demand performance is acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may operate strongly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market news guidance.

In August, the domestic phenol market first declined and then rose. In September, the phenol market continued to rise in a narrow range last month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol in China was 9225 yuan / ton on September 1 and 9350 yuan / ton on September 7, with a small increase, but the market is still rising continuously, with an increase of 1.4%, Up to now, the offers of major mainstream markets are as follows: the offer in East China is 9350 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 9300-9350 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 9400-9450 yuan / ton.

Looking at the trend chart of phenol index in the whole year, it can be seen that phenol is currently in a reasonable price range, and phenol has been adjusting in the range since the second quarter. In September, domestic phenol factories raised their offer by about 100 yuan / ton, which increased the confidence of the market. Although the port stock increased, the output of overseas devices decreased in September and the domestic supply is expected to increase. Considering that some export cargo holders are not in a hurry to ship, there is no pressure on the short-term supply side, and most low prices do not raise the market quotation by a narrow margin, in terms of devices, In September, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units changed little, ranging from 85% to 90%. In September, Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit had a shutdown maintenance plan.

Downstream bisphenol A continues to operate at a high level. Although it has been reduced by a narrow range recently, the overall negotiation is still 27900-28100 yuan / ton. Bisphenol A is mostly Petrochemical supporting devices, which has little impact on the phenol Market, phenolic resin and other downstream changes, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of the business community, the short-term replenishment volume of ships is small, and there are export expectations. The export plan is increased when the original supply expectation is reduced. The supply of domestic cargo carriers is not pressure, and the cargo carriers are still bullish on the market. The business community expects that the phenol market is still expected to be good in the short term.