Commodity market: according to the monitoring of the business agency, on April 26, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate and the range narrowed. The main force closed at 12635 yuan / ton, and the market spot market adjusted with the market. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12260 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from the quotation of the previous trading day and down 7.57% year-on-year.
Industry analysis: macroscopically, domestic public health events have a wide impact, affecting the supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products; Internationally, the International Monetary Fund lowered global economic growth. Supply side: Thailand’s current output increases and prices fall; The Yunnan production area fully opened cutting, and the output increased. The Hainan production area opened cutting at the end of April and the beginning of May, and entered the full rubber cutting period around the middle of May, which is expected to increase significantly. Demand side: Recently, affected by public health incidents, transportation has been blocked, and short-distance transportation in some areas has improved. The data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 58.77%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points over the previous week and a decrease of 17.28 percentage points over the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tire was 67.62%, down 0.99 percentage points from the previous week. Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined, the current situation has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term, the domestic shipment is blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products continues to increase. According to the data of the passenger car Federation, the national passenger car market was affected by the consumption downturn in 2022. In the first quarter, the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger car market decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the overall trend was lower than expected; The temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic has caused huge losses, and the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter. In terms of inventory: the futures inventory of the previous period increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipt decreased slightly; In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, affected by demand, the process of natural rubber inventory elimination is slow. Import and export: the data show that in March 2022, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.
Future forecast: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, domestic public health events are divergent at many points, China’s industrial product circulation system is blocked, raw material delivery pressure is high, car enterprises in some serious areas stop production, downstream demand slows down, the pressure of spot finished products continues to increase, the commencement of production enterprises is blocked, and the future market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile.
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