1、 Price data
As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8133.33 yuan / ton, up 0.84% from 8065.75 yuan / ton on April 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8100-8200 yuan / ton.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8020.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 7882.50 yuan / ton on April 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8000-8100 yuan / ton.
On April 29, the naphtha commodity index was 100.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.48% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 137.64% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In late April, the price of refined naphtha first rose and then fell. In the middle of April, the naphtha market was well traded, refineries actively pushed up, the demand for terminal olefins and reforming increased, and some enterprises began to stock up before the festival; At the end of the month, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly good, the logistics recovered slowly, and the market transaction was general.
Upstream: under the background that international crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disturb the market, it will aggravate the expectation of tightening oil supply in the future. In addition, in terms of other supply factors, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has continued the gradual and small increase in production policy, which will stabilize the tightening of crude oil supply, with little effect. The OPEC monthly meeting may be held on May 5. Considering the binding interests of OPEC and its Russian allies, the possibility of policy change is small. The market generally expects that there is a high possibility of a small increase in production in June. On the whole, the trend of crude oil prices rose in April.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell in late April. The price was 7220 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7320 yuan / ton on April 29, up 1.39%. The price of mixed xylene fell in late April. The price was 7200 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7330 yuan / ton on April 29, with a price increase of 1.81%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene in late April was downward. The price was 9300 yuan / ton on April 15 and 8900 yuan / ton on April 29, with the price falling by 4.30%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the energy analysts of business society, the recent trading of naphtha market is general, and the demand for terminal olefins and reorganization is not significantly good. Some enterprises prepare goods before the festival, but the overall demand is general, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.
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