Supply constraints boosted PTA prices by more than 6% in April

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward in April. As of April 29, the domestic market was 6427 yuan / ton, up 6.09% from the beginning of the month and 35.00% year-on-year.

In April, the restart and overhaul of domestic PTA units coexisted, and the operating load of corresponding PTA enterprises remained at a low level. The operating rate of PTA industry decreased from 74% at the beginning of the month to 67% and rebounded slightly to 73% at the end of the month. Overall, supply is still shrinking.

In the crude oil market, since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have continued to fluctuate at a high level in anticipation of tightening supply. April was basically the logic of shock rise. According to the monitoring of business society, WTI crude oil rose by more than 5% as of April 28. Oil prices fluctuated above $100 on most trading days throughout April.

In April, the downstream polyester market was still weak, and many factories reduced production to near 77%. The product inventory accumulation and loss increase, and the factory shipment pressure is large. According to statistics, as of April 22, the inventory of POY, FDY, DTY and staple fiber was 32.3 days, 30.8 days, 36.4 days and 12.8 days respectively, all at the high level in recent years.

Insufficient follow-up of terminal demand and continued to purchase on demand. The startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fell to a low level near 50% in the middle of the month, down about 35% compared with the same period last year. Towards the end of the month, with the gradual easing of the problem of poor logistics and the gradual resumption of work and production, the comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang picked up slightly to 56%, and the demand side improved.

Business analysts believe that the cost side support is still there, and the expectation of a sharp decline in Russian oil sanctions in the future will be the main driving force for the rise in oil prices. In addition, under the background that PTA supply side is still limited, social inventory will further decline. At the same time, with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic in the terminal weaving industry, some enterprises have the action of replenishing orders and goods, and the demand side is expected to pick up. On the whole, the price focus of PTA in May is expected to rise further.