According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic butadiene producers was 11377 yuan / ton on June 16, up 18.68% month on month and 33.56% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in East China is 10650 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 11100 yuan / ton. The supply side of the market is difficult to have a significant positive boost, demand continues to be weak, coupled with the decline of crude oil, it is difficult to find supporting factors on the news side.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation on June 15 was 10325 yuan / ton. On the cost side, the domestic high-temperature coal tar has fallen recently. At present, the coke enterprises are operating stably, and the coal tar supply in the market has not changed significantly, but the performance of downstream products continues to be poor. On the demand side, the downstream tires in the domestic carbon black market are running at low load, and the sluggish performance is still not improved. The operating load of all steel is about 55%, while that of semi steel is about 65%. Under the condition that the domestic demand for tires continues to be weak and the export orders drive is limited, the inventory of tire enterprises is high. In a comprehensive view, the current domestic carbon black cost is falling, and the carbon black price is slightly downward under the condition that the negative factors in the carbon black market demand are low and the inventory is increased.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on June 14 was 5160 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The year-on-year increase was 4.24%.

Oil prices rose in volatile trading on Tuesday as global supply constraints outweighed concerns that fuel demand could be affected by the economic recession and domestic restrictions on the epidemic. Under the support of cost, ethylene glycol rebounded slightly today, the basis negotiation was slightly stronger, the external market rose slightly in the afternoon, and the recent negotiation price of shipping cargo was around us $635 / ton. However, the overall trading of ethylene glycol market is still light, and the enthusiasm of production enterprises is low due to benefit reasons. MEG port inventory fluctuation is limited. As of June 13, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports in East China was 1148100 tons, an increase of 2100 tons, or 0.18%, compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 1700 tons, or 0.15%, compared with last Thursday. The downstream PFY market sales were weak, some polyester manufacturers stopped for maintenance, the polyester operating rate declined slightly, and the market outlook was cautious.

Forecast: it is difficult to expect a substantial increase in terminal demand, with range fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose slightly this week. As of June 12, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 10433.33 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from the average price of 10500.00 yuan / ton on June 6, up 1.62% from the same period last month.

On June 12, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 98.29, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.94% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (December 15, 2021), and up 92.05% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline. In the near future, the downstream unsaturated resin market is generally started, and the rigid demand is the main factor. As of the 13th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 9550 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 9500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 9500 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week, with the price exceeding 10000 yuan. On June 2, the average price of pure benzene was 9167 yuan / ton, and on June 10, the average price was 9984 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.91% over last week. This week, Sinopec continuously raised the production price of pure benzene, which once again boosted market confidence, and local refining enterprises followed suit. Over the weekend, it was reported that an accident occurred in a factory in South Korea, resulting in the shutdown of about 380000 tons of pure benzene production capacity, and the market speculation was positive. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose as a whole this week, from 9000 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9650 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a weekly increase of 7.22%. As for n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6300 yuan / ton as of June 12.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of the business club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is suffering from serious losses, the factories are shut down for maintenance one after another, the market circulation source is small, and the n-butane oxidation process has risen, driving the maleic anhydride market. The market of downstream resin manufacturers is sorted out, and there is no obvious positive effect on the terminal. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may rise slightly in the near future.

High DOP prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, in June, DOP prices rose first and then fell. After the holiday, some customers replenished the stock, and DOP prices rose violently. The market demand for DOP in the off-season was insufficient, and the high level of DOP market fell back. As of June 10, the DOP price was 11925.00 yuan / ton, down 0.52% from the DOP price of 11987.50 yuan / ton on June 6; Compared with the DOP price of 11912.50 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month, the increase was 0.10%. The demand was insufficient, and the high price of DOP fell back.

The high price of isooctanol fell back

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in June, and the high price of isooctanol fell this week; The high price of isooctanol fell back. As of June 10, the price of isooctanol was 12300 yuan / ton, down 1.07% from 12433.33 yuan / ton on June 1; It was 2.12% lower than 12566.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of isooctanol was adjusted at a high level, the market cost of DOP decreased, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the market of phthalic anhydride rose violently in June. As of June 10, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, up 2.41% from 8300 yuan / ton on June 1. In June, the price of ortho benzene rose sharply, the market of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, and the downward pressure on DOP prices remained. The upward momentum increased.

Aftermarket expectation

According to the DOP data analyst of business agency, in June, the downstream enterprises started at a low level, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, the enterprises reduced production and increased, the high price of isooctanol fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, the cost of plasticizer DOP fell, and the high price of DOP fell; In the off-season of the market, the cumulative shutdown increased, the downstream demand of DOP was insufficient, the downward pressure of DOP increased, and the upward momentum weakened. On the whole, the pressure of raw material cost decline is large, the demand in the off-season is insufficient, the pressure of DOP decline is large, and the upward momentum is weakened. It is expected that the high price of DOP will fall in the future.