High DOP prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, in June, DOP prices rose first and then fell. After the holiday, some customers replenished the stock, and DOP prices rose violently. The market demand for DOP in the off-season was insufficient, and the high level of DOP market fell back. As of June 10, the DOP price was 11925.00 yuan / ton, down 0.52% from the DOP price of 11987.50 yuan / ton on June 6; Compared with the DOP price of 11912.50 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month, the increase was 0.10%. The demand was insufficient, and the high price of DOP fell back.

The high price of isooctanol fell back

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in June, and the high price of isooctanol fell this week; The high price of isooctanol fell back. As of June 10, the price of isooctanol was 12300 yuan / ton, down 1.07% from 12433.33 yuan / ton on June 1; It was 2.12% lower than 12566.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of isooctanol was adjusted at a high level, the market cost of DOP decreased, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the market of phthalic anhydride rose violently in June. As of June 10, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, up 2.41% from 8300 yuan / ton on June 1. In June, the price of ortho benzene rose sharply, the market of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, and the downward pressure on DOP prices remained. The upward momentum increased.

Aftermarket expectation

According to the DOP data analyst of business agency, in June, the downstream enterprises started at a low level, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, the enterprises reduced production and increased, the high price of isooctanol fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, the cost of plasticizer DOP fell, and the high price of DOP fell; In the off-season of the market, the cumulative shutdown increased, the downstream demand of DOP was insufficient, the downward pressure of DOP increased, and the upward momentum weakened. On the whole, the pressure of raw material cost decline is large, the demand in the off-season is insufficient, the pressure of DOP decline is large, and the upward momentum is weakened. It is expected that the high price of DOP will fall in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potash at the beginning of the week was 9775.00 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potash at the end of the week was 9900.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.28%, the current price rose by 5.13% month on month, and the current price rose by 46.88% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate continued to rise this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has been rising continuously recently, and the market has reached a new high this week, with a gratifying rise. The quantity of imported potassium by sea this week was not sufficient, and the replenishment of imported potassium chloride at the port was relatively limited. The shortage of raw materials drives the market of potassium carbonate to rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate this week is about 9800-10000 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has risen slightly. The potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory price is about 4480 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been strong and rising, while the domestic spot market is in short supply, and the domestic inventory is relatively low. The supply exceeds the demand. The price of potassium chloride has risen slightly. It is expected that the potassium chloride market will be consolidated at a high level in the future.

Recently, there is a shortage of potash fertilizer in China. The supply of potash chloride imported from the port is relatively limited, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business society. They are for reference only. Please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details).

1、 Price trend

Latest price (June 8):8687.5 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on June 8, the average price of pvc5 in the domestic market was 8687.5 yuan / ton, up 0.46% compared with the previous trading day and down 4.66% year-on-year. At present, the futures market fluctuates at a high level, the spot market follows the rise, the downstream procurement continues to maintain the rigid demand, and the low-end price transaction in the market is acceptable. The buyer and the seller negotiate carefully and maintain a wait-and-see state. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4050-4200 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8350-8800 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to rise slightly.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price of p-xylene rose in May. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 11.24% compared with the price of 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 54.69% year-on-year. Affected by the positive support, the price trend of domestic PX market rose.

In May, the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operated stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operated stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operated stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operated normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operated stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operated at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operated stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit started at about 50%, The domestic p-xylene supply is normal, but the operation of overseas units declines, and the domestic p-xylene price rises due to the impact of crude oil shocks. In May, a deflagration accident occurred in a unit in South Korea, resulting in a decrease in the supply of paraxylene in Asia, and a decrease in the supply of imported goods led to a rise in the price of PX. In May, the price of international crude oil rose, and the price of PX rose. As of the 27th, the closing prices were $1264-1266 / T FOB South Korea and $1292-1294 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has declined. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia is tight, the closing price of PX in the external market has risen, and the domestic market price of paraxylene has risen sharply.

In May, the international crude oil price rose sharply by 9.91%. The crude oil price experienced a sharp rise and fall. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $115.07/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $115.56/barrel. With the arrival of the peak summer season in the United States, the demand expectation has boosted the oil price. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting Western calls for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of the oil demand outlook, which has led to pressure on the oil price to a certain extent. On the whole, the crude oil price rose sharply in May, which has affected the price trend of paraxylene.

The downstream PTA market price rose sharply in May. As of the 30th, the average PTA market price was 6850-6900 yuan / ton, up 6.73% in May. In May, the domestic PTA plant was restarted and overhauled at the same time, and the overall industry started up slightly. Up to now, the operating load has increased to more than 76%. However, the overall PTA spot circulation is not large. Under the background of low PTA processing fee and production loss, the possibility of unplanned device maintenance cannot be ruled out. Under the guidance of buying up sentiment, the downstream market made up an appropriate amount of positions, and the polyester start-up also increased to around 78%. In terms of prices, affected by the boost of raw materials in May, the prices of downstream polyester factories rose by 5-8%. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the startup rate of looms has rebounded significantly due to the warmer orders. Especially in Xiaoshao, Haining, Changshu and other places, the factory’s order receiving rate improved moderately, which was better than that in April. However, at present, some domestic trade orders are improving, while foreign trade orders are still not improving. The downstream market is good for the domestic paraxylene market. Affected by the positive support, the domestic paraxylene market price trend is rising.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business club, believes that the current crude oil cost is still supported. In addition, the start-up of downstream polyester manufacturers in the terminal market has been improved, and the PTA price trend has risen. It is expected that there is still room for rise in the market price trend of paraxylene in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of the business community, bromine prices rose as a whole in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 55400 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 57600 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.97% and a year-on-year increase of 32.41%. On May 30, the bromine commodity index was 201.40, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 17.86% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 241.82% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices rose as a whole this month. Currently, the mainstream prices of Shandong enterprises are about 57000-58000 yuan / ton. The output of bromine enterprises has increased, but the growth is relatively slow. The manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. The imported bromine is insufficient, and the downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry can support bromine in the near future.

In terms of raw materials, sulfur prices rose in May as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 3586.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 4043.33 yuan / ton, up 12.73%, 158.64% over the same period last year. The sulfur market fluctuated. Some refineries were still in the maintenance stage, with limited enterprise output, no pressure on inventory, tight domestic supply, and stable downstream demand. Sulfur refineries’ quotations were raised according to their own shipping conditions. In the later stage, the sulfur prices at ports fell, the market atmosphere weakened, and the quotations of individual refineries were lowered. However, the overall market performance was in short supply, and the downstream demand was good.

According to the analysts of the business community, bromine prices have risen recently. There is no inventory pressure on enterprises, and the output increase is less than expected. Bromine enterprises have more prices, and the support of bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry is OK. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine prices will run better, depending on the downstream market demand.