The price of acrylonitrile rose sharply this week (10.17-10.24). As of October 24, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 10820 yuan/ton, up 5.56% from 10250 yuan/ton last Monday. At present, the price of acrylonitrile apron in China is between 10700 and 11200 yuan/ton. It is difficult to find low price goods in the market, and traders are reluctant to sell.

Acrylonitrile is currently at a low level of construction, and some enterprises plan to stop for maintenance in the near future, so the supply side is expected to be tight in the later period. According to the business community, the operating rate of acrylonitrile in China is around 70%. The 210000 t/a acrylonitrile unit of Anqing Petrochemical is planned to be shut down for maintenance for 60 days at the end of October; The 260000 t/a acrylonitrile unit in Kruer is planned to be shut down for maintenance in the first ten days of November.

This week (10.17-10.24), the raw propylene market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 23, the domestic propylene price was 7426 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from 7436 yuan/ton on October 17. As of the 23rd, the mainstream quotation of domestic propylene (Shandong) market was 7400-7450 yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm for propylene demand declined. The factory sold at a discount.

In October, ABS at the downstream of acrylonitrile continued to operate at a high level of 8% to 9%; Acrylic fiber, polyacrylamide and nitrile rubber industries started to maintain stability, and downstream demand has a strong need to support acrylonitrile.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that although the cost of acrylonitrile has decreased slightly, the supply of acrylonitrile will be tight in the short term, and the downstream will continue to need support. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain high in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 24, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 160000 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last week, the price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. The downstream procurement atmosphere was general, and the operating rate was normal. Lithium iron phosphate was mainly ordered by contract customers. New orders were limited. At present, the mainstream price range was 155000-160000 yuan/ton.

The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, is 160000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly stable, and there is no significant change. The price range is maintained at 155000-160000 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase, with a stable operating rate, a general purchasing atmosphere, and a stable overall market. The manufacturer’s supply is only for regular customers, mainly for contract customers to arrange orders for shipment. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair.

Chemical commodity index: On October 23, the chemical index was 988 points, unchanged from yesterday, 29.43% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 65.22% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

Analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community believe that the LiFePO4 market will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic market of PA6 was weak in the middle of October, and the spot prices of various brands were reduced by a narrow margin. As of October 22, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprise for China Adhesive 2.75-2.85 was about 14200 yuan/ton, up and down by+1.43% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the caprolactam market has fallen recently, the raw material pure benzene has fallen due to the decline of international crude oil, and the cost support of caprolactam has weakened. At present, the caprolactam industry has a high load position, with a narrow increase this week, and there is a certain supply pressure. Downstream enterprises purchase caprolactam on demand, and buyers are limited in their acceptance of high priced goods, so they often purchase at low prices. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

Upstream caprolactam market fell, and PA6 cost end support weakened. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants decreased slightly this week, and the overall industrial load remained stable at 70%. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of aggregation enterprises is poor. The effect of the traditional peak season of “Yinshi” is limited. There are many goods on the market, and the slice competition is strong. The high price goods are generally sold poorly, and the market atmosphere is gradually weakening. The operating rate of terminal enterprises was high and increased by a narrow margin. They digested the inventory stack in the early stage and paid more attention to buying and waiting. The superposition of the news that the new PA6 unit was put into production further exerted pressure on the supply side, and the speed of goods moving in the field decreased, resulting in an increase in inventory. At present, the operators are bearish about the future market, and the traders are willing to make concessions to the market.

3、 Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believed that the spot price of PA6 was weak this week, the price of caprolactam fell, the cost support of PA6 weakened, and the far upstream was also weak. On the demand side, it ran smoothly, but the industry was worried that PA6 capacity expansion continued to put pressure on the market, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was heavy. It is expected that the market of PA6 will be weak in the short term.

As of October 19, the mainstream price of white carbon black was about 5600 yuan/ton, and the price was stable. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market remained stable, with stable upstream prices, general downstream procurement atmosphere, and fair overall market negotiation atmosphere.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 7152 in the morning, 1.79% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 7080. Short fiber raw material futures closed higher today, with PTA up 1.70% and ethylene glycol up 0.55%. The average price quoted on the domestic spot market of polyester staple fiber today is 8001 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous trading day, or 4.34% year-on-year.

Due to the activities of oil thieves and pipeline breakers, all major oil trunk lines in Nigeria have been closed, and the output in September fell nearly 25%. Today, the main forces of WTI crude oil futures and Shanghai crude oil futures rose slightly by 1.00% and 0.73% respectively (as of 16:25 Beijing time). Cost drove PTA and ethylene glycol futures to close higher today. Short fiber futures also rose today driven by stronger raw materials.

In the near future, Anhui and Yizheng plan to restart the repair of staple fiber devices, and the commencement of staple fiber will be improved; Downstream demand of staple fiber has slightly improved, but there is little change in commencement, and high inventory is not active in staple fiber procurement. Short fiber spot market trend under pressure.

In the future, polyester staple fiber may still fluctuate mainly along with the cost side. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials and downstream orders.