1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 14, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and down 30.00% compared with the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 14, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25833.33 yuan/ton, 0.64% lower than the price of 26000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 40.84% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals did not fluctuate much this week, and the enterprise offer was stable as a whole. The price of raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded slightly, and the overall cost of raw materials showed an upward trend. The cost played a certain role in supporting the price of R22. Affected by the fall in demand for R22 in the fourth quarter, the domestic price of R22 kept steady on the whole.

Since October, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has rebounded slightly from the bottom, the price of trichloroethylene has dropped slightly, the cost of raw materials has declined in shock, and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream demand has increased. Under the pressure of cost, the price of refrigerant R134a has declined slightly this week.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the refrigerant price fluctuated slightly this week. The prices of R22 and R134a rose and fell each other. The demand for refrigerant in the fourth quarter declined. The cost recovery has limited support for the overall price of R22 market in the future. The overall price of R134a will fluctuate slightly at the current level.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9425.00 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8816.67 yuan/ton, down by 6.45%. The price fell 11.12% year on year.

styrene

Styrene market prices fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fallen in shock, and this week the price continues to fall. The main reason is that the port inventory keeps rising, domestic styrene supply increases at the same time, styrene inventory pressure is large, it is difficult to support the styrene market, downstream demand recovery is poor, market transactions are light, and the spot price of styrene falls again and again.

In terms of raw materials, international crude oil futures fell for three days in a row, showing a downward trend. The fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor, and the price continues to fall. Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan/ton to 8000 yuan/ton before the festival. Recently, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8000-8200 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10300 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10200 yuan/ton, down 0.97%, down 13.80% year on year. PS downstream demand remains weak, and it is difficult to achieve significant volume in the market. In addition to the impact of low price offer, businesses may still sell at a small margin.

EPS prices fell this week. Overall transaction weakened month on month. At the beginning of the week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11300 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11100 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm was not high, the EPS market price was weak, the manufacturer maintained a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand was sluggish.

The domestic ABS market fell in shock this week. As of October 14, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 12850 yuan/ton, up or down by – 1.15% compared with the price level at the beginning of the week. After the festival, the big factory raised its offer, but the buyer camp gradually showed resistance to the high price, and the price fell back soon after it rose.

Recently, the international crude oil market has stopped falling and rebounded, the downstream demand is expected to recover, and the supply and demand pressure of styrene has eased. On the whole, if the raw materials rise next week, the styrene market will follow the correction.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the TDI price in East China rose at a high level after the festival. As of October 13, the average market price in East China was 24366.67 yuan/ton, up nearly 4300 yuan/ton, or 21.38%, compared with the price of 20075 yuan/ton on September 30.

After the National Day, TDI prices continued to rise at a high level, with a one-day increase of 1300 yuan/ton. From the perspective of market trading, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and a small amount of follow-up is also just needed. However, the TDI price has risen continuously, why.

External market: large overseas supply gap and strong demand

The 300000 ton TDI unit of BASF Factory in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was shut down due to force majeure in March 2022.

The 250000 ton TDI unit of Hungary Wanhua Chemical will be overhauled in July 2022, and will operate under low load after restart in early September.

In August 2022, the 300000 ton TDI unit of German Malgenkostro plant encountered force majeure and has not been restarted.

The leakage of Beixi Pipeline has led to the shortage of natural gas in Europe and the restriction of factory commencement, which has once again aggravated the tension of TDI supply in the European market.

Domestic market: release of information such as factory sealing, device maintenance, limited supply of large factories, etc

On October 10, the market learned that Shanghai Covestro TDI was closed for parking, which is expected to take about a week;

On the evening of October 10, Wanhua Chemical released a notice on the shutdown and maintenance of the TDI device in Yantai Industrial Park;

On October 13, the market learned that the latest strike price of Shanghai Covestro TDI was raised by 2000 yuan/ton to 25700 yuan/ton for limited supply.

At the beginning of the month, the big factory listed the price information in October, giving the market a rising signal, and the traders’ offer rose. After the National Day, due to the impact of public health events in Xinjiang, the logistics transportation was slow, the delivery period of Xinjiang Juli was extended, and the market supply was tightened. During the week, the good news from the suppliers was stacked on top of each other. The market atmosphere was positive and the TDI price rose at a high level. Therefore, under the leadership of the supplier market, a sharp rise in TDI was inevitable.

In the future market analysis, TDI data engineers of the business agency believed that the overseas demand was strong, the focus of domestic factories tended to the export market, and many factories were limited in supply. TDI’s spot goods were tight, traders were rising at a high level, and they were reluctant to sell. Some closed orders were suspended, and the market was in a strong bullish atmosphere. It was expected that the future TDI market would continue to be strong and upward, and specific attention should be paid to the release of supplier information.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business community, pure benzene rose during the National Day holiday. On September 30, the price of pure benzene was 7850-8200 yuan/ton (average price 7917 yuan/ton), and on October 11, the price was 8200-8400 yuan/ton (average price 8284 yuan/ton), up 4.63% from before the festival and down 2.31% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the strong rise of crude oil during the holiday period and the rise of pure benzene in Asia, the domestic pure benzene market was boosted. During the National Day holiday, the market in East China was closed, and the local refining enterprises in Shandong had a good shipment and prices rose. After the festival, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene twice, up 350 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton (some refineries in North China increased to 8250 yuan/ton).

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on October 7 was 919 US dollars/ton, up 32 US dollars/ton or 3.61% compared with that before the festival; The reference import price in East China was 937 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton or 2.18% compared with that before the festival.

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+meeting decided to cut the output by 2 million barrels per day from November on the basis of that in August. The OPEC+production cut decided to benefit the crude oil market. International oil prices rose for five consecutive days. As of October 7, Brent prices rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%.

Downstream

3、 Future market expectation

The downstream demand of pure benzene has been repaired, and the short-term price is relatively strong under the support of crude oil. However, after the arrival of imported pure benzene, the port inventory continued to accumulate. If crude oil falls, pure benzene may weaken.

The price of zinc rose sharply after the festival

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 11, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 25736 yuan/ton, up 2.53% from 25100 yuan/ton on October 10, and up 4.15% from 24710 yuan/ton on September 30 before the festival. After the festival, the zinc price rose continuously, and the zinc market rose sharply.

Key points of analysis

Since late September, some zinc smelting enterprises in Yunnan have limited power and controlled production, and zinc smelting output is expected to decline. During the National Day, the increase in interest rates in the United States caused macroeconomic fluctuations. The expected growth of demand in the zinc market was insufficient; The output of zinc smelting by fermentation is expected to decline due to the continuous energy crisis in Europe, and LME discussed banning the acceptance of Russian metals. In general, the supply of zinc is expected to decline significantly, while the demand is still sluggish.

Future market forecast

Recently, the zinc market continues to be weak in both supply and demand, with limited support for zinc price rise. In the future, the demand of domestic zinc market is expected to recover in the long run due to the expectation of the twenty major policies, the silver market plus the implementation of real estate policies. In the future, the short-term zinc price fluctuated and consolidated, and the long-term zinc price rise was largely supported.